Cavalry FC 2-0 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atlético Ottawa at 58%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Atlético Ottawa make the trip to ATCO Field to face Cavalry FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Monday 22 May 2023 at 00:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cavalry FC have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W W D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Cavalry FC at ATCO Field this season: 5W 1D 4L from 10 home games — 1.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Atlético Ottawa (all games): 3W 6D 1L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: W D W D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Atlético Ottawa's form when playing away from home: 7W 2D 1L across 10 road games this term (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.30 exceeds their overall 1.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.40 PPG for Cavalry FC against 1.50 for Atlético Ottawa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading Data
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Atlético Ottawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 51% versus Atlético Ottawa 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 51% | Atlético Ottawa 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 0.98 xG and Atlético Ottawa 2.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.153 / defence 0.992 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.324 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 0.948 / away 1.529. Atlético Ottawa have an above-average attack strength of 1.324 — the away xG of 2.01 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 33 Cavalry FC games / 33 Atlético Ottawa games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 15% | Draw 27% | Atlético Ottawa 58%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 6.67 | Draw 3.70 | Atlético Ottawa 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Atlético Ottawa (58%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 57% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.99. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 57% — the 2.99 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Atlético Ottawa as the most likely outcome at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.99 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Over 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates are neutral: Cavalry FC 50% | Atlético Ottawa 40%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (33 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Monday 22 May 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 15% | Draw 27% | Atlético Ottawa 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 57% | BTTS 57% | xG Cavalry FC 0.98 / Atlético Ottawa 2.01 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.153 / def 0.992 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.324 / def 0.896 | league avg home 0.948 / away 1.529 • Poisson stance: Atlético Ottawa (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
2.01
Atlético Ottawa xG
57%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
57%
Over 2.5
35%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 00:00 on Monday 22 May 2023 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Cavalry FC 2 - 0 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 15% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 58% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Atlético Ottawa the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 57%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-D-L. Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 3W-6D-1L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cavalry FC's attack rating (1.15) and Atlético Ottawa's defence rating (0.90), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atlético Ottawa's attack (1.32x) against Cavalry FC's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 2.01.
The sample (33/33 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.2%. Close behind: 0-2 (10.2%), 1-2 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atlético Ottawa Win
15%
6.77
27%
3.70
58%
1.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 2
10.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
1 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.99
2.01
Atlético Ottawa xG
6.77
15%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
1.72
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
80%
Over 1.5
1.25
20%
Under 1.5
5.00
57%
Over 2.5
1.75
43%
Under 2.5
2.33
35%
Over 3.5
2.86
65%
Under 3.5
1.54
18%
Over 4.5
5.56
82%
Under 4.5
1.22
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
13%
7.44
38%
2.66
Win to Nil
2%
50.34
22%
4.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.0 | 10.1 | 10.2 | 6.8 | 3.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.9 | 10.0 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.4 | 4.9 | 4.9 | 3.3 | 1.6 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 0.8 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.2%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 2.01 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 2.99.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cavalry FC come into this having played 59 games, going 28W 14D 17L for 1.66 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Atlético Ottawa sit at 1.34 PPG from 59 outings (20W 19D 20L), a run that reads W-D-W-D-L across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.66 PPG for Cavalry FC against 1.34 for Atlético Ottawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cavalry FC's home form reads 15W 6D 8L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.76 PPG return.
Away from home, Atlético Ottawa have taken 1.48 points per game from 29 outings (12W 7D 10L).
Attack vs Defence
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 1.17 scored and 1.34 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Current Season
Atlético Ottawa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 28W 14D 17L in their last 59 games (1.66 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 20W 19D 20L in their last 59 (1.34 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Atlético Ottawa away?
Cavalry FC's home record (1.76 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 1.76 PPG; Atlético Ottawa away: 1.48 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or Atlético Ottawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Atlético Ottawa in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Cavalry FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won 3-0 on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atlético Ottawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Cavalry FC
3
Draws
4
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 3, Atlético Ottawa have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 0-3 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Atlético Ottawa see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 48%, Atlético Ottawa 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Cavalry FC) and 38% (Atlético Ottawa).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Atlético Ottawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 48% of Atlético Ottawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 38% of Atlético Ottawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Atlético Ottawa in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cavalry FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Atlético Ottawa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Atlético Ottawa 2-0 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 4, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 0.98 xG and Atlético Ottawa 2.01 xG, a combined 2.99. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Cavalry FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Atlético Ottawa landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.99 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.32 / defence 0.90, drawn from 33/33 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 15% | Draw 27% | Atlético Ottawa 58%, with Atlético Ottawa to win its most likely call at 58%. Instead the game produced a Cavalry FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 51%, Atlético Ottawa 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cavalry FC 1.66 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.34 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cavalry FC win broke the near-deadlock. Cavalry FC (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.31 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.