Cavalry FC 3-1 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cavalry FC at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Atlético Ottawa make the trip to ATCO Field to face Cavalry FC in Canadian Premier League, Group Stage. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 August 2026 at 20:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cavalry FC have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: L W W D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Cavalry FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cavalry FC at ATCO Field this season: 7W 3D 0L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Atlético Ottawa (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.20 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Atlético Ottawa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atlético Ottawa's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Cavalry FC against 1.90 for Atlético Ottawa. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Cavalry FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Atlético Ottawa in 80%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Cavalry FC lead 3W to 4W over the last 9 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.3 per game across 9 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Jul 2026, ended 3–0 with Cavalry FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games).
Atlético Ottawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (48 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 42%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 54% versus Atlético Ottawa 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 56% | Atlético Ottawa 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 1.80 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 1.012 / defence 0.993 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.012 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.811 / away 1.267. Data: 28 Cavalry FC games / 28 Atlético Ottawa games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 48% | Draw 26% | Atlético Ottawa 25%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 2.08 | Draw 3.85 | Atlético Ottawa 4.00. Cavalry FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.07. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.07 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.80 / 1.27) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cavalry FC as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cavalry FC if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.07 combined xG gives a 59% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Cavalry FC 70% | Atlético Ottawa 80% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (28 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Group Stage | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Aug 2026, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 48% | Draw 26% | Atlético Ottawa 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 62% | xG Cavalry FC 1.80 / Atlético Ottawa 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 1.012 / def 0.993 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.012 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.811 / away 1.267 • Poisson stance: Cavalry FC (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.80
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Atlético Ottawa xG
62%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 22 August 2026 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Cavalry FC 3 - 1 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa is a Group Stage fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 48% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 25% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Cavalry FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa?
Record (9 meetings): Cavalry FC 3W | Draws 2 | Atlético Ottawa 4W.
What form are Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-W-W-D-W. Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cavalry FC's attack rating (1.01) and Atlético Ottawa's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.80 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atlético Ottawa's attack (1.01x) against Cavalry FC's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 2-0 (7.5%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Cavalry FC Win
48%
2.08
26%
3.78
25%
3.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
1 – 0
8.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.80
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
3.07
1.27
Atlético Ottawa xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.94
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.62
38%
BTTS No
2.62
Clean Sheet
28%
3.57
17%
6.05
Win to Nil
13%
7.43
4%
23.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 5.9 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.3 | 10.6 | 6.8 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.5 | 9.5 | 6.1 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 4.5 | 5.7 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.0 | 2.6 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 1.80 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.27 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 3.07.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cavalry FC come into this having played 48 games, going 24W 13D 11L for 1.77 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-W-D-W. The sample for Cavalry FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Atlético Ottawa sit at 1.92 PPG from 48 outings (26W 14D 8L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Atlético Ottawa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.77 PPG for Cavalry FC against 1.92 for Atlético Ottawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cavalry FC's home form reads 15W 5D 3L across 23 games on their own ground, a 2.17 PPG return.
Away from home, Atlético Ottawa have taken 1.57 points per game from 23 outings (10W 6D 7L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.79 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 1.85 scored and 1.25 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Atlético Ottawa in 62%.
Last 48 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Blended
Atlético Ottawa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 24W 13D 11L in their last 48 games (1.77 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 26W 14D 8L in their last 48 (1.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Atlético Ottawa away?
Cavalry FC's home record (2.17 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 2.17 PPG; Atlético Ottawa away: 1.57 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or Atlético Ottawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Atlético Ottawa in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 22 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Cavalry FC have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won 3-0 on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atlético Ottawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Cavalry FC
2
Draws
4
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 4, Atlético Ottawa have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
They last met on 22 August 2026, when Cavalry FC 3-1 Atlético Ottawa.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 52% of the time.
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 56%, Atlético Ottawa 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 61% for Cavalry FC and 61% for Atlético Ottawa. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 39% and 44% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Atlético Ottawa?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Cavalry FC's games and 61% of Atlético Ottawa's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Cavalry FC's matches and 61% of Atlético Ottawa's.
Do Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Atlético Ottawa in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cavalry FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Atlético Ottawa.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC beat Atlético Ottawa 3-1 at ATCO Field, Group Stage, in the Canadian Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 1.80 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.27 xG, a combined 3.07. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Cavalry FC beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 1.01 / defence 0.99 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.01 / defence 0.98, drawn from 28/28 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 48% | Draw 26% | Atlético Ottawa 25%, with Cavalry FC to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. Over 3.5 was 37% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 59% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 56%, Atlético Ottawa 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (48 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (48 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cavalry FC 1.77 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cavalry FC win broke the near-deadlock. Atlético Ottawa (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.48 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.