Cavalry FC 1-1 Atlético Ottawa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 37% as Cavalry FC take on Atlético Ottawa.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Atlético Ottawa make the trip to ATCO Field to face Cavalry FC in Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Saturday 22 June 2024 at 02:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cavalry FC have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this season: 7W 1D 2L. Last five: W W L W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cavalry FC at ATCO Field this season: 8W 0D 2L from 10 home games — 2.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Atlético Ottawa (all games): 3W 2D 5L across 10 Canadian Premier League outings this term — 1.10 points per game. Last five: D L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Atlético Ottawa's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Cavalry FC. A 1.10 PPG lead over Atlético Ottawa (2.20 vs 1.10) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Trading Data
Cavalry FC goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
Atlético Ottawa goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cavalry FC 56% versus Atlético Ottawa 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cavalry FC 56% | Atlético Ottawa 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cavalry FC 0.98 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cavalry FC attack 0.938 / defence 0.900 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.242 / defence 0.708. League average goals — home 1.481 / away 1.037. Atlético Ottawa's defence strength of 0.708 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Atlético Ottawa have an above-average attack strength of 1.242 — the away xG of 1.16 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 38 Cavalry FC games / 38 Atlético Ottawa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cavalry FC 27% | Draw 37% | Atlético Ottawa 36%. Fair-value odds: Cavalry FC 3.70 | Draw 2.70 | Atlético Ottawa 2.78. The draw (37%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.14. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.14 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 37% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 27% and away win at 36% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.14 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Cavalry FC 50% | Atlético Ottawa 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa | Competition: Canadian Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: ATCO Field • Kick-off: Saturday 22 Jun 2024, 02:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cavalry FC 27% | Draw 37% | Atlético Ottawa 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 47% | xG Cavalry FC 0.98 / Atlético Ottawa 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Cavalry FC attack 0.938 / def 0.900 | Atlético Ottawa attack 1.242 / def 0.708 | league avg home 1.481 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Draw (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.98
Cavalry FC xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Atlético Ottawa xG
47%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa kick off?
Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa kicked off at 02:00 on Saturday 22 June 2024 at ATCO Field.
What was the final score in Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Cavalry FC 1 - 1 Atlético Ottawa.
Where is Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa being played?
The match is being played at ATCO Field.
What competition is Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa part of?
Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Canadian Premier League (Canada).
Who is favourite to win Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our statistical model gives Cavalry FC a 27% chance of winning, Atlético Ottawa a 36% chance, and a 37% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa will score (BTTS).
Will Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa in?
Cavalry FC (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-L. Atlético Ottawa (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cavalry FC's attack rating (0.94) and Atlético Ottawa's defence rating (0.71), the model arrives at 0.98 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Atlético Ottawa's attack (1.24x) against Cavalry FC's defence (0.90x) — and the away total comes out at 1.16.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.5%), 0-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
27%
3.73
37%
2.67
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.6%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.98
Cavalry FC xG
Total xG
2.14
1.16
Atlético Ottawa xG
3.73
27%
Home win
2.67
37%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
31%
3.19
37%
2.67
Win to Nil
8%
11.90
13%
7.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 13.6 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 13.4 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa expected to score?
The model projects 0.98 expected goals for Cavalry FC and 1.16 for Atlético Ottawa, a combined total of 2.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cavalry FC come into this having played 59 games, going 31W 12D 16L for 1.78 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Atlético Ottawa sit at 1.51 PPG from 59 outings (24W 17D 18L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.78 PPG for Cavalry FC against 1.51 for Atlético Ottawa. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Cavalry FC's home form reads 19W 4D 6L across 29 games on their own ground, a 2.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Atlético Ottawa have taken 1.66 points per game from 29 outings (14W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cavalry FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cavalry FC are averaging 1.51 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Atlético Ottawa are on 1.31 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Canadian Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cavalry FC
Current Season
Atlético Ottawa
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa in coming into this match?
Cavalry FC have gone 31W 12D 16L in their last 59 games (1.78 PPG), while Atlético Ottawa have gone 24W 17D 18L in their last 59 (1.51 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cavalry FC at home or Atlético Ottawa away?
Cavalry FC's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cavalry FC at home: 2.10 PPG; Atlético Ottawa away: 1.66 PPG.
Have Cavalry FC or Atlético Ottawa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cavalry FC have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Atlético Ottawa in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Canadian Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 4 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Cavalry FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atlético Ottawa won 3-0 on 27 Sep 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cavalry FC have gone 1W 2D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Atlético Ottawa — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Cavalry FC
3
Draws
4
Atlético Ottawa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa?
From 10 meetings on record, Cavalry FC have won 3, Atlético Ottawa have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa last play each other?
They last met on 4 July 2026, when Atlético Ottawa 0-3 Cavalry FC.
Who has won more matches between Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa?
Atlético Ottawa have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cavalry FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Atlético Ottawa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cavalry FC 55%, Atlético Ottawa 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 59% (Cavalry FC) and 45% (Atlético Ottawa).
On the defensive side: Cavalry FC keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Atlético Ottawa in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cavalry FC home games / Atlético Ottawa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cavalry FC play Atlético Ottawa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Cavalry FC's recent matches and 48% of Atlético Ottawa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cavalry FC vs Atlético Ottawa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 59% of Cavalry FC's recent games and 45% of Atlético Ottawa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa tend to score early?
Cavalry FC have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Atlético Ottawa in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cavalry FC and Atlético Ottawa finished level at 1-1 at ATCO Field, Regular Season - 5, in the Canadian Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cavalry FC 0.98 xG and Atlético Ottawa 1.16 xG, a combined 2.14. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cavalry FC attack 0.94 / defence 0.90 against Atlético Ottawa attack 1.24 / defence 0.71, drawn from 38/38 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cavalry FC 27% | Draw 37% | Atlético Ottawa 36%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cavalry FC 56%, Atlético Ottawa 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cavalry FC's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Atlético Ottawa's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cavalry FC 1.78 PPG, Atlético Ottawa 1.51 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.