Vitoria 2-1 Internacional – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Internacional at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Vitoria vs Internacional fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vitoria host Internacional at Estádio Manoel Barradas in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 16 June 2024 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Looking at all fixtures this season, Internacional stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Internacional's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vitoria 0.74 xG and Internacional 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vitoria attack 0.775 / defence 1.391 | Internacional attack 0.911 / defence 0.795. League average goals — home 1.193 / away 1.151. Vitoria's attack strength of 0.775 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Internacional's defence strength of 0.795 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 8 Vitoria games / 44 Internacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vitoria 18% | Draw 28% | Internacional 54%. Fair-value odds: Vitoria 5.56 | Draw 3.57 | Internacional 1.85. Internacional hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Internacional at 54% — moderate model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Internacional offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vitoria vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estádio Manoel Barradas • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Jun 2024, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vitoria 18% | Draw 28% | Internacional 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 41% | xG Vitoria 0.74 / Internacional 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Vitoria attack 0.775 / def 1.391 | Internacional attack 0.911 / def 0.795 | league avg home 1.193 / away 1.151 • Poisson stance: Internacional (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Vitoria xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Internacional xG
41%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vitoria vs Internacional kick off?
Vitoria vs Internacional kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 16 June 2024 at Estádio Manoel Barradas.
What was the final score in Vitoria vs Internacional?
Vitoria 2 - 1 Internacional.
Where is Vitoria vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Manoel Barradas.
What competition is Vitoria vs Internacional part of?
Vitoria vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vitoria vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Vitoria a 18% chance of winning, Internacional a 54% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Internacional the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vitoria vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Vitoria and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Vitoria vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Internacional?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Vitoria and Internacional in?
Internacional (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W. Internacional away split: 1.40 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Vitoria's attack rating (0.78) and Internacional's defence rating (0.80), the model arrives at 0.74 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Internacional's attack versus Vitoria's defence, projects 1.46 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.5%), 0-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Internacional Win
18%
5.47
28%
3.58
54%
1.86
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
16.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
0 – 2
11.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Vitoria xG
Total xG
2.19
1.46
Internacional xG
5.47
18%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
1.86
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
23%
4.29
48%
2.09
Win to Nil
4%
23.49
26%
3.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 16.3 | 11.8 | 5.8 | 2.1 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.2 | 12.0 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vitoria vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 0-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Vitoria and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Vitoria and 1.46 for Internacional, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Vitoria vs Internacional?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vitoria
Pre-Season
Internacional
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Vitoria go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Vitoria's record when hosting Internacional specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
3
Vitoria
0
Draws
2
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vitoria and Internacional?
From 5 meetings on record, Vitoria have won 3, Internacional have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vitoria and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Vitoria 2-0 Internacional.
Who has won more matches between Vitoria and Internacional?
Vitoria have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 5 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vitoria home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Vitoria defy the odds to beat Internacional 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vitoria beat Internacional 2-1 at Estádio Manoel Barradas, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vitoria 0.74 xG and Internacional 1.46 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Vitoria beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vitoria attack 0.78 / defence 1.39 against Internacional attack 0.91 / defence 0.80, drawn from 8/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vitoria 18% | Draw 28% | Internacional 54%, with Internacional to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Vitoria win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.