Vasco DA Gama 0-0 Remo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Vasco DA Gama at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Vasco DA Gama vs Remo encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 30 as Vasco DA Gama welcome Remo to São Januário. Kick-off is set for Saturday 10 October 2026 at 21:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Vasco DA Gama — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L W W W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Vasco DA Gama have posted 5W 1D 4L at São Januário — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Remo have recorded 1W 3D 6L from 10 outings — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Remo have posted 2W 2D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Vasco DA Gama have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (1.40 vs 0.60) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Vasco DA Gama have won 0, Remo 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 11 Apr 2026, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Vasco DA Gama trading profile (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Remo trading profile (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Vasco DA Gama 62% and Remo 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasco DA Gama 62% | Remo 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 2.12 xG and Remo 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.143 / defence 1.035 | Remo attack 0.837 / defence 1.253. League average goals — home 1.480 / away 1.162. Remo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.253 — this is suppressing Vasco DA Gama's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Vasco DA Gama games / 29 Remo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 61% | Draw 23% | Remo 15%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Remo 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Vasco DA Gama (61%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vasco DA Gama at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.13 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Vasco DA Gama 50% | Remo 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Remo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: São Januário • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Oct 2026, 21:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 61% | Draw 23% | Remo 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 58% | xG Vasco DA Gama 2.12 / Remo 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.143 / def 1.035 | Remo attack 0.837 / def 1.253 | league avg home 1.480 / away 1.162 • Poisson stance: Vasco DA Gama (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.12
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Remo xG
58%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Remo kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Remo kicked off at 21:00 on Saturday 10 October 2026 at São Januário.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Remo?
Vasco DA Gama 0 - 0 Remo.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Remo being played?
The match is being played at São Januário.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Remo part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Remo is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Remo?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 61% chance of winning, Remo a 15% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Vasco DA Gama the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Remo?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Remo will score (BTTS).
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Remo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Remo?
Record (1 meetings): Vasco DA Gama 0W | Draws 1 | Remo 0W.
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Remo in?
Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-W. Remo (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Vasco DA Gama's attack at 1.14x the league average against Remo's defence at 1.25x — combine the two and it projects 2.12 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Remo's attack versus Vasco DA Gama's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/29 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 10.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.9%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
61%
1.63
23%
4.26
15%
6.53
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 1
9.9%
Home win
1 – 1
9.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.12
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
3.13
1.01
Remo xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
6.53
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.74
42%
BTTS No
2.35
Clean Sheet
37%
2.73
12%
8.33
Win to Nil
22%
4.47
2%
54.38
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 9.3 | 9.4 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 7.0 | 7.0 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.7 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Remo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 10.6%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Remo expected to score?
The model projects 2.12 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.01 for Remo, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Remo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vasco DA Gama's recent record stands at 9W 7D 13L from 29 games, a 1.17 PPG return, with W-L-W-W-W in the last five.
Remo, meanwhile, have gone 5W 9D 15L across 29 games — 0.83 PPG, with L-L-L-L-D in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Vasco DA Gama on 1.17 PPG, Remo on 0.83. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Vasco DA Gama have managed 7W 2D 5L from 14 games — 1.64 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.17 PPG overall — Vasco DA Gama are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Remo's away record stands at 2W 3D 9L across 14 trips, a 0.64 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasco DA Gama come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vasco DA Gama are averaging 1.24 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game recently; Remo are on 1.14 scored and 1.66 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Vasco DA Gama have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games; Remo in 62%.
Last 29 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Current Season
Remo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Remo in coming into this match?
Vasco DA Gama have gone 9W 7D 13L in their last 29 games (1.17 PPG), while Remo have gone 5W 9D 15L in their last 29 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasco DA Gama at home or Remo away?
Vasco DA Gama's home record (1.64 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasco DA Gama at home: 1.64 PPG; Remo away: 0.64 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vasco DA Gama and Remo runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2026. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 10 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Vasco DA Gama
2
Draws
0
Remo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Remo?
From 2 meetings on record, Vasco DA Gama have won 0, Remo have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Remo last play each other?
They last met on 10 October 2026, when Vasco DA Gama 0-0 Remo.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Remo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasco DA Gama 57%, Remo 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 64% for Vasco DA Gama and 64% for Remo. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 21% and 21% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Vasco DA Gama have failed to score in 29% of games; Remo in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Remo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasco DA Gama play Remo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 57% of Vasco DA Gama's games and 57% of Remo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Vasco DA Gama vs Remo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 64% of Vasco DA Gama's matches and 64% of Remo's.
Do Vasco DA Gama and Remo tend to score early?
Vasco DA Gama have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, Remo in 86% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Vasco DA Gama's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at São Januário, Regular Season - 30, as Vasco DA Gama and Remo drew 0-0 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 2.12 xG and Remo 1.01 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Vasco DA Gama fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Remo landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 1.14 / defence 1.03 against Remo attack 0.84 / defence 1.25, drawn from 66/29 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 61% | Draw 23% | Remo 15%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 62%, Remo 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Remo's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Vasco DA Gama 1.17 PPG, Remo 0.83 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line. Remo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.