Vasco DA Gama 2-0 Fortaleza EC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Vasco DA Gama at 47%, yet in-form Fortaleza EC provide a compelling counter-argument — this Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Vasco DA Gama host Fortaleza EC at Estádio São Januário in Serie A, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 4 July 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Vasco DA Gama have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: D L W L D. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.00 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Vasco DA Gama, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasco DA Gama's home record at Estádio São Januário: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Vasco DA Gama are significantly better at Estádio São Januário than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Fortaleza EC stand at 4W 4D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Fortaleza EC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fortaleza EC's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Fortaleza EC — 0.80 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.60 vs 0.80). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Vasco DA Gama, 1 for Fortaleza EC and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.5 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 19 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with Vasco DA Gama winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Vasco DA Gama in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Fortaleza EC in-play and half-time data (50 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Vasco DA Gama 52% versus Fortaleza EC 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Vasco DA Gama 42% | Fortaleza EC 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Vasco DA Gama 1.66 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.054 / defence 1.364 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.791 / defence 1.174. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.069. Data: 51 Vasco DA Gama games / 50 Fortaleza EC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 47% | Draw 28% | Fortaleza EC 25%. Fair-value odds: Vasco DA Gama 2.13 | Draw 3.57 | Fortaleza EC 4.00. Vasco DA Gama hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.81. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.81 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Vasco DA Gama at 47% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fortaleza EC (1.60 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Vasco DA Gama offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.81 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Vasco DA Gama 80% | Fortaleza EC 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estádio São Januário • Kick-off: Thursday 4 Jul 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Vasco DA Gama 47% | Draw 28% | Fortaleza EC 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Vasco DA Gama 1.66 / Fortaleza EC 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Vasco DA Gama attack 1.054 / def 1.364 | Fortaleza EC attack 0.791 / def 1.174 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.069 • Poisson stance: Vasco DA Gama (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.66
Vasco DA Gama xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Fortaleza EC xG
57%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC kick off?
Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC kicked off at 00:00 on Thursday 4 July 2024 at Estádio São Januário.
What was the final score in Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC?
Vasco DA Gama 2 - 0 Fortaleza EC.
Where is Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC being played?
The match is being played at Estádio São Januário.
What competition is Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC part of?
Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC?
Our statistical model gives Vasco DA Gama a 47% chance of winning, Fortaleza EC a 25% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Vasco DA Gama the favourite.
Will both teams score in Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Vasco DA Gama and Fortaleza EC will score (BTTS).
Will Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Fortaleza EC?
Record (2 meetings): Vasco DA Gama 1W | Draws 0 | Fortaleza EC 1W.
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Fortaleza EC in?
Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.00 | L5 D-L-W-L-D. Fortaleza EC (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Vasco DA Gama's attack rating (1.05) and Fortaleza EC's defence rating (1.17), the model arrives at 1.66 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Fortaleza EC's attack versus Vasco DA Gama's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/50 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.5%), 1-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Vasco DA Gama Win
47%
2.11
28%
3.60
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.66
Vasco DA Gama xG
Total xG
2.81
1.15
Fortaleza EC xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.75
43%
BTTS No
2.33
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
19%
5.24
Win to Nil
15%
6.70
5%
21.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.0 | 6.9 | 4.0 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.0 | 11.5 | 6.6 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.3 | 9.5 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.9 | 2.2 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Vasco DA Gama and Fortaleza EC expected to score?
The model projects 1.66 expected goals for Vasco DA Gama and 1.15 for Fortaleza EC, a combined total of 2.81.
How confident is the prediction model for Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Vasco DA Gama's recent record stands at 14W 11D 25L from 50 games, a 1.06 PPG return, with D-L-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Vasco DA Gama is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fortaleza EC, meanwhile, have gone 20W 14D 16L across 50 games — 1.48 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Fortaleza EC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Fortaleza EC by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vasco DA Gama heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Vasco DA Gama have managed 12W 3D 9L from 24 games — 1.62 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.06 PPG overall — Vasco DA Gama are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Fortaleza EC's away record stands at 7W 5D 12L across 24 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Vasco DA Gama come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Vasco DA Gama are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game recently; Fortaleza EC are on 1.16 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 50 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Vasco DA Gama
Blended
Fortaleza EC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Vasco DA Gama and Fortaleza EC in coming into this match?
Vasco DA Gama have gone 14W 11D 25L in their last 50 games (1.06 PPG), while Fortaleza EC have gone 20W 14D 16L in their last 50 (1.48 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Vasco DA Gama at home or Fortaleza EC away?
Vasco DA Gama's home record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Vasco DA Gama at home: 1.62 PPG; Fortaleza EC away: 1.08 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Vasco DA Gama and Fortaleza EC runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 16 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Vasco DA Gama go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Nov 2024, when Fortaleza EC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Vasco DA Gama's record when hosting Fortaleza EC specifically: 3W 0D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
4
Vasco DA Gama
0
Draws
2
Fortaleza EC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Vasco DA Gama and Fortaleza EC?
From 6 meetings on record, Vasco DA Gama have won 4, Fortaleza EC have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Vasco DA Gama and Fortaleza EC last play each other?
They last met on 16 October 2025, when Fortaleza EC 0-2 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Vasco DA Gama and Fortaleza EC?
Vasco DA Gama have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Vasco DA Gama are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Vasco DA Gama 50%, Fortaleza EC 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Vasco DA Gama) and 42% (Fortaleza EC).
On the defensive side: Vasco DA Gama have failed to score in 29% of games; Fortaleza EC in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Vasco DA Gama home games / Fortaleza EC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Vasco DA Gama play Fortaleza EC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Vasco DA Gama's recent matches and 46% of Fortaleza EC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Vasco DA Gama vs Fortaleza EC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Vasco DA Gama's recent games and 42% of Fortaleza EC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Vasco DA Gama and Fortaleza EC tend to score early?
Vasco DA Gama have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Fortaleza EC in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Vasco DA Gama cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Fortaleza EC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Vasco DA Gama beat Fortaleza EC 2-0 at Estádio São Januário, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Vasco DA Gama 1.66 xG and Fortaleza EC 1.15 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Fortaleza EC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Vasco DA Gama attack 1.05 / defence 1.36 against Fortaleza EC attack 0.79 / defence 1.17, drawn from 51/50 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Vasco DA Gama 47% | Draw 28% | Fortaleza EC 25%, with Vasco DA Gama to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Vasco DA Gama 42%, Fortaleza EC 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (50 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not.
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (50 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fortaleza EC arrived the stronger side — 1.48 PPG against 1.06. Form was overturned, with Vasco DA Gama winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Vasco DA Gama (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.42 average — tighter than their form line. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.