Sport Recife 1-2 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis

📋

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Sport Recife take on Palmeiras.

✍️ Match Preview

Pre-Match Analysis

Sport Recife and Palmeiras meet at Estadio Adelmar da Costa Carvalho in Serie A (matchday 2). This fixture gets under way on Sunday 6 April 2025 at 23:30 UK time.

Form

Palmeiras's record over their last 10 games: 5W 2D 3L (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).

On the road, Palmeiras have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 away fixtures (2.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from their last 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated the 2 H2H matches in our data: 0 wins for Sport Recife, 2 for Palmeiras and 0 draws — leaving the H2H largely neutral. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

The 2 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 26 Oct 2021, ended Sport Recife 1–2 Palmeiras — a Palmeiras win.

The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Sport Recife 1.08 xG and Palmeiras 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sport Recife attack 0.865 / defence 1.150 | Palmeiras attack 1.122 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.361 / away 0.881. Data: built from Sport Recife's last 1 games and Palmeiras's last 39. Some of those games are older results, so treat these probabilities as directional rather than precise.

Result probabilities: Sport Recife 30% | Draw 36% | Palmeiras 33%. Fair-value odds: Sport Recife 3.30 | Draw 2.74 | Palmeiras 3.01. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.22. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.22 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

The Poisson model's most likely outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 30% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

Poisson projects 2.22 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 62% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

The Poisson model's sample (Sport Recife 1 games, Palmeiras 39) includes some older results, so its projections carry extra uncertainty — weight recent form and the odds accordingly.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights