Sao Paulo 1-2 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates RB Bragantino at 53% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo plays host to Sao Paulo versus RB Bragantino in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off: Sunday 4 July 2021 at 22:15 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sao Paulo have collected 0.62 PPG across 8 Serie A outings this season: 0W 5D 3L. Last five: D L D D D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.12 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 8 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Sao Paulo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sao Paulo at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo this season: 0W 3D 0L from 3 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 67% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
RB Bragantino (all games): 5W 3D 0L across 8 Serie A outings this term — 2.25 points per game. Last five: W W W W D. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.12 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets in 8 outings (38%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 62% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for RB Bragantino, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, RB Bragantino have gone 4W 0D 0L from 4 away fixtures this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.25 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 2 away clean sheets from 4 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 3.00 exceeds their overall 2.25 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
On a straight form reading, RB Bragantino are the stronger side — 1.63 PPG clear of the hosts (2.25 vs 0.62). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading
Sao Paulo half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games; they fail to score in 62% of games.
RB Bragantino half-time and goal-timing data (8 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 25% of cases; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sao Paulo 38% versus RB Bragantino 62%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sao Paulo 12% | RB Bragantino 75%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sao Paulo 0.96 xG and RB Bragantino 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sao Paulo attack 0.947 / defence 1.173 | RB Bragantino attack 1.303 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 0.931 / away 1.083. RB Bragantino have an above-average attack strength of 1.303 — the away xG of 1.66 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 8 Sao Paulo games / 8 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sao Paulo 21% | Draw 26% | RB Bragantino 53%. Fair-value odds: Sao Paulo 4.76 | Draw 3.85 | RB Bragantino 1.89. RB Bragantino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.62. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.62 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is RB Bragantino at 53% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.62 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sao Paulo 67% | RB Bragantino 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jul 2021, 22:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sao Paulo 21% | Draw 26% | RB Bragantino 53% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 51% | xG Sao Paulo 0.96 / RB Bragantino 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Sao Paulo attack 0.947 / def 1.173 | RB Bragantino attack 1.303 / def 1.089 | league avg home 0.931 / away 1.083 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.96
Sao Paulo xG
Expected Goals
1.66
RB Bragantino xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 22:15 on Sunday 4 July 2021 at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo.
What was the final score in Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino?
Sao Paulo 1 - 2 RB Bragantino.
Where is Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo.
What competition is Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino part of?
Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Sao Paulo a 21% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 53% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Sao Paulo and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and RB Bragantino?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sao Paulo and RB Bragantino in?
Sao Paulo (all comps): 0W-5D-3L in 8 | 0.62 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.12 | L5 D-L-D-D-D. RB Bragantino (all comps): 5W-3D-0L in 8 | 2.25 PPG | GF 2.12 / GA 1.12 | L5 W-W-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Sao Paulo's attack rating (0.95) and RB Bragantino's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 0.96 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — RB Bragantino's attack (1.30x) against Sao Paulo's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.66.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.6%), 0-2 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
21%
4.72
26%
3.87
53%
1.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
0 – 2
10.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.96
Sao Paulo xG
Total xG
2.62
1.66
RB Bragantino xG
4.72
21%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
1.89
53%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
19%
5.23
38%
2.61
Win to Nil
4%
24.72
20%
4.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.3 | 12.1 | 10.0 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 7.0 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.4 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Sao Paulo and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 0.96 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 1.66 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.62.
How confident is the prediction model for Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 8 outings, Sao Paulo have picked up 0.62 PPG on a 0W 5D 3L record — D-L-D-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Sao Paulo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
RB Bragantino's form line: 5W 3D 0L from 8 games, 2.25 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-D. The sample for RB Bragantino is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, RB Bragantino are the form team by 1.63 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Sao Paulo.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Sao Paulo have posted 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (0W 3D 0L).
On the road, RB Bragantino have gone 3W 0D 0L from 3 away games — 3.00 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 2.25 PPG overall record — RB Bragantino travel well.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, RB Bragantino come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Sao Paulo are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 2.12 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RB Bragantino in 62%.
Defensively: RB Bragantino in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 8 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sao Paulo
Blended
RB Bragantino
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sao Paulo and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Sao Paulo have gone 0W 5D 3L in their last 8 games (0.62 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 5W 3D 0L in their last 8 (2.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sao Paulo at home or RB Bragantino away?
RB Bragantino's away record (3.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sao Paulo at home: 1.00 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 3.00 PPG.
Have Sao Paulo or RB Bragantino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sao Paulo have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, RB Bragantino in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sao Paulo won 3-0 on 14 Aug 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sao Paulo have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against RB Bragantino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Sao Paulo
4
Draws
2
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and RB Bragantino?
From 10 meetings on record, Sao Paulo have won 4, RB Bragantino have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Sao Paulo and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when RB Bragantino 1-2 Sao Paulo.
Who has won more matches between Sao Paulo and RB Bragantino?
Sao Paulo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Sao Paulo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 33% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 67% for Sao Paulo, 67% for RB Bragantino — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 33% (Sao Paulo) and 67% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Sao Paulo keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; RB Bragantino in 33%; Sao Paulo have failed to score in 33% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sao Paulo home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sao Paulo play RB Bragantino?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Sao Paulo's games and 67% of RB Bragantino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Sao Paulo vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Sao Paulo's recent games and 67% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sao Paulo and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Sao Paulo have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as RB Bragantino edge out Sao Paulo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Sao Paulo 1-2 at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 0.96 xG and RB Bragantino 1.66 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 0.95 / defence 1.17 against RB Bragantino attack 1.30 / defence 1.09, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 21% | Draw 26% | RB Bragantino 53%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 53%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sao Paulo 12%, RB Bragantino 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sao Paulo's trading profile (8 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (8 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, RB Bragantino arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 0.62. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.