Sao Paulo 0-1 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sao Paulo at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 8 sees Palmeiras travel to Estadio Do MorumBIS to take on Sao Paulo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 22 March 2026, 00:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sao Paulo stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W L W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Sao Paulo at Estadio Do MorumBIS this season: 6W 1D 3L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Do MorumBIS. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Sao Paulo are significantly better at Estadio Do MorumBIS than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Palmeiras have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Palmeiras away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sao Paulo 1.30 PPG, Palmeiras 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
Palmeiras have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 9 encounters against Sao Paulo's 1 victories.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Oct 2025, ended 2–3 with Palmeiras winning.
It is worth noting that Palmeiras have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 6 wins from 9 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Sao Paulo in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Palmeiras in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sao Paulo 49% versus Palmeiras 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sao Paulo 51% | Palmeiras 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sao Paulo 1.70 xG and Palmeiras 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sao Paulo attack 1.158 / defence 0.763 | Palmeiras attack 1.292 / defence 1.014. League average goals — home 1.444 / away 1.102. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.292 — the away xG of 1.09 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Sao Paulo's defence rating of 0.763 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 45 Sao Paulo games / 45 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sao Paulo 52% | Draw 24% | Palmeiras 24%. Fair-value odds: Sao Paulo 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Palmeiras 4.17. Sao Paulo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sao Paulo at 52% — moderate model lean. With a 24% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sao Paulo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.78 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Sao Paulo 30% | Palmeiras 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Estadio Do MorumBIS • Kick-off: Sunday 22 Mar 2026, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sao Paulo 52% | Draw 24% | Palmeiras 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 54% | xG Sao Paulo 1.70 / Palmeiras 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Sao Paulo attack 1.158 / def 0.763 | Palmeiras attack 1.292 / def 1.014 | league avg home 1.444 / away 1.102 • Poisson stance: Sao Paulo (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
Sao Paulo xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Palmeiras xG
54%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras kick off?
Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 22 March 2026 at Estadio Do MorumBIS.
What was the final score in Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Sao Paulo 0 - 1 Palmeiras.
Where is Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Do MorumBIS.
What competition is Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras part of?
Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Sao Paulo a 52% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Sao Paulo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Sao Paulo and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Palmeiras?
Record (9 meetings): Sao Paulo 1W | Draws 2 | Palmeiras 6W.
What form are Sao Paulo and Palmeiras in?
Sao Paulo (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-W-L-W-L. Palmeiras (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sao Paulo's attack at 1.16x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 1.01x — combine the two and it projects 1.70 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Sao Paulo's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sao Paulo Win
52%
1.94
24%
4.16
24%
4.11
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.5%
Home win
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
Sao Paulo xG
Total xG
2.78
1.09
Palmeiras xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.16
24%
Draw
4.11
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.85
46%
BTTS No
2.18
Clean Sheet
34%
2.96
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
17%
5.74
4%
22.43
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 6.7 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.5 | 11.4 | 6.2 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.9 | 9.7 | 5.3 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.5 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Sao Paulo and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 1.09 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sao Paulo come into this having played 76 games, going 31W 17D 28L for 1.45 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-W-L.
On the other side, Palmeiras sit at 1.96 PPG from 76 outings (45W 14D 17L), a run that reads D-D-L-W-W across their last five.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Sao Paulo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sao Paulo's home form reads 22W 7D 9L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.92 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.45 PPG overall — Sao Paulo are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Palmeiras have taken 1.84 points per game from 38 outings (21W 7D 10L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sao Paulo are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.66 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sao Paulo
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sao Paulo and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Sao Paulo have gone 31W 17D 28L in their last 76 games (1.45 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 45W 14D 17L in their last 76 (1.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sao Paulo at home or Palmeiras away?
Sao Paulo's home record (1.92 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sao Paulo at home: 1.92 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.84 PPG.
Have Sao Paulo or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sao Paulo have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2023, when Palmeiras won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sao Paulo's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sao Paulo
2
Draws
7
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Palmeiras?
From 10 meetings on record, Sao Paulo have won 1, Palmeiras have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sao Paulo and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Sao Paulo 0-1 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Sao Paulo and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sao Paulo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sao Paulo 50%, Palmeiras 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Sao Paulo) and 50% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Sao Paulo keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Palmeiras in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sao Paulo home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sao Paulo play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Sao Paulo's recent matches and 50% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Sao Paulo's recent games and 50% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sao Paulo and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Sao Paulo have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Palmeiras defy the odds to beat Sao Paulo 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Sao Paulo 0-1 at Estadio Do MorumBIS, Regular Season - 8, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 1.70 xG and Palmeiras 1.09 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Sao Paulo fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 1.16 / defence 0.76 against Palmeiras attack 1.29 / defence 1.01, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 52% | Draw 24% | Palmeiras 24%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 52%. Instead the game produced a Palmeiras win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sao Paulo 51%, Palmeiras 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sao Paulo's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palmeiras's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.45. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.53 scoring average — below par going forward. Palmeiras (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.