Sao Paulo 0-2 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Sao Paulo at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 10 sees Palmeiras travel to Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo to take on Sao Paulo. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 June 2023, 20:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sao Paulo stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D L L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Sao Paulo at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Across all Serie A games this season, Palmeiras have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Palmeiras away from home this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Sao Paulo 1.70 PPG, Palmeiras 2.10 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Sao Paulo have won 1, Palmeiras 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.7 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 16 Oct 2022, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Sao Paulo in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Palmeiras in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sao Paulo 49% versus Palmeiras 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Sao Paulo 38% | Palmeiras 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sao Paulo 1.50 xG and Palmeiras 1.29 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sao Paulo attack 1.348 / defence 0.953 | Palmeiras attack 1.245 / defence 0.804. League average goals — home 1.386 / away 1.089. Sao Paulo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.348 — their λ of 1.50 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.245 — the away xG of 1.29 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 47 Sao Paulo games / 47 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Sao Paulo 39% | Draw 32% | Palmeiras 29%. Fair-value odds: Sao Paulo 2.56 | Draw 3.12 | Palmeiras 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 60% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 60% reflects that both xG figures (1.50 / 1.29) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Sao Paulo at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sao Paulo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 1.7 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 60% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Sao Paulo 40% | Palmeiras 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Jun 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sao Paulo 39% | Draw 32% | Palmeiras 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 60% | xG Sao Paulo 1.50 / Palmeiras 1.29 • Poisson strength factors: Sao Paulo attack 1.348 / def 0.953 | Palmeiras attack 1.245 / def 0.804 | league avg home 1.386 / away 1.089 • Poisson stance: Sao Paulo (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Sao Paulo xG
Expected Goals
1.29
Palmeiras xG
60%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras kick off?
Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 11 June 2023 at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo.
What was the final score in Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Sao Paulo 0 - 2 Palmeiras.
Where is Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo.
What competition is Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras part of?
Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Sao Paulo a 39% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 29% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Sao Paulo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 60% probability that both Sao Paulo and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Palmeiras?
Record (3 meetings): Sao Paulo 1W | Draws 1 | Palmeiras 1W.
What form are Sao Paulo and Palmeiras in?
Sao Paulo (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-L-W. Palmeiras (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Sao Paulo's attack at 1.35x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Sao Paulo's defence, projects 1.29 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 1-2 (7.7%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Sao Paulo Win
39%
2.57
32%
3.17
29%
3.39
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Sao Paulo xG
Total xG
2.79
1.29
Palmeiras xG
2.57
39%
Home win
3.17
32%
Draw
3.39
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
60%
BTTS Yes
1.68
40%
BTTS No
2.47
Clean Sheet
27%
3.64
22%
4.49
Win to Nil
11%
9.34
7%
15.24
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 7.9 | 5.1 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 11.9 | 7.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 6.9 | 8.9 | 5.8 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Sao Paulo and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Sao Paulo and 1.29 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Sao Paulo come into this having played 76 games, going 24W 30D 22L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-L-W.
On the other side, Palmeiras sit at 1.93 PPG from 76 outings (43W 18D 15L), a run that reads W-W-D-W-L across their last five.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.59 PPG clear of Sao Paulo — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Sao Paulo's home form reads 15W 15D 8L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.58 PPG return.
Away from home, Palmeiras have taken 1.79 points per game from 38 outings (19W 11D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Sao Paulo are averaging 1.13 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.63 scored and 0.92 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sao Paulo
Current Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sao Paulo and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Sao Paulo have gone 24W 30D 22L in their last 76 games (1.34 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 43W 18D 15L in their last 76 (1.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sao Paulo at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sao Paulo at home: 1.58 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.79 PPG.
Have Sao Paulo or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sao Paulo have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 26 Oct 2023, when Palmeiras won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Sao Paulo's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 0W 1D 4L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
Sao Paulo
2
Draws
7
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sao Paulo and Palmeiras?
From 10 meetings on record, Sao Paulo have won 1, Palmeiras have won 7, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sao Paulo and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Sao Paulo 0-1 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Sao Paulo and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Sao Paulo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sao Paulo 47%, Palmeiras 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Sao Paulo) and 47% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Sao Paulo keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Palmeiras in 42%; Sao Paulo have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sao Paulo home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sao Paulo play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Sao Paulo's recent matches and 47% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sao Paulo vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Sao Paulo's recent games and 47% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sao Paulo and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Sao Paulo have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palmeiras cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Sao Paulo.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Sao Paulo 0-2 at Estádio Cícero Pompeu de Toledo, Regular Season - 10, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sao Paulo 1.50 xG and Palmeiras 1.29 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Sao Paulo fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sao Paulo attack 1.35 / defence 0.95 against Palmeiras attack 1.25 / defence 0.80, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Sao Paulo 39% | Draw 32% | Palmeiras 29%, with Sao Paulo to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Palmeiras win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sao Paulo 38%, Palmeiras 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sao Paulo's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palmeiras's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.34. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Sao Paulo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.95 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Palmeiras (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.84 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.