Santos 1-1 Internacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Santos at 45% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Santos vs Internacional encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Santos host Internacional at Estádio Urbano Caldeira in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 9 June 2022 at 01:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Santos stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
Santos at Estádio Urbano Caldeira this season: 5W 2D 3L from 10 home games — 1.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Urbano Caldeira. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Serie A games this season, Internacional have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Internacional's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Santos are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 1.10 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call (using home/away splits). Santos's 10% and Internacional's 10% both sit well below average — BTTS No is the strongly backed angle.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Santos have won 0, Internacional 0, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Nov 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Santos in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Internacional in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santos 32% versus Internacional 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Santos 29% | Internacional 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santos 1.20 xG and Internacional 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santos attack 1.174 / defence 0.821 | Internacional attack 1.003 / defence 0.833. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 0.981. Data: 47 Santos games / 47 Internacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santos 45% | Draw 30% | Internacional 25%. Fair-value odds: Santos 2.22 | Draw 3.33 | Internacional 4.00. Santos hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 32% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.01. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 68% probability — total xG of 2.01 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Santos are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Santos offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.01 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 32% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 1.4 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Santos 10% | Internacional 10% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santos vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Estádio Urbano Caldeira • Kick-off: Thursday 9 Jun 2022, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santos 45% | Draw 30% | Internacional 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 32% | BTTS 39% | xG Santos 1.20 / Internacional 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Santos attack 1.174 / def 0.821 | Internacional attack 1.003 / def 0.833 | league avg home 1.225 / away 0.981 • Poisson stance: Santos (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.20
Santos xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Internacional xG
39%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
32%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santos vs Internacional kick off?
Santos vs Internacional kicked off at 01:30 on Thursday 9 June 2022 at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What was the final score in Santos vs Internacional?
Santos 1 - 1 Internacional.
Where is Santos vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Urbano Caldeira.
What competition is Santos vs Internacional part of?
Santos vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Santos vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Santos a 45% chance of winning, Internacional a 25% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Santos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Santos and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Santos vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 32%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Internacional?
Record (2 meetings): Santos 0W | Draws 2 | Internacional 0W.
What form are Santos and Internacional in?
Santos (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Internacional (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Santos's attack rating (1.17) and Internacional's defence rating (0.83), the model arrives at 1.20 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Internacional's attack versus Santos's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.7%), 1-0 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santos Win
45%
2.21
30%
3.34
25%
4.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.1%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
13.5%
Draw
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.20
Santos xG
Total xG
2.01
0.81
Internacional xG
2.21
45%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
4.02
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
32%
Over 2.5
3.12
68%
Under 2.5
1.47
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
45%
2.24
30%
3.31
Win to Nil
20%
4.97
8%
13.32
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.5 | 10.9 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.1 | 13.0 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.7 | 7.8 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.9 | 3.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santos vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Santos and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 1.20 expected goals for Santos and 0.81 for Internacional, a combined total of 2.01.
How confident is the prediction model for Santos vs Internacional?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Santos come into this having played 38 games, going 12W 14D 12L for 1.32 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, Internacional sit at 1.26 PPG from 38 outings (12W 12D 14L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Santos on 1.32 PPG, Internacional on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Santos's home form reads 9W 6D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.74 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Santos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Internacional have taken 0.95 points per game from 19 outings (4W 6D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Santos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Santos are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Internacional are on 1.16 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Defensively: Santos have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santos
Current Season
Internacional
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santos and Internacional in coming into this match?
Santos have gone 12W 14D 12L in their last 38 games (1.32 PPG), while Internacional have gone 12W 12D 14L in their last 38 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santos at home or Internacional away?
Santos's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santos at home: 1.74 PPG; Internacional away: 0.95 PPG.
Have Santos or Internacional been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santos have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Internacional in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 19 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 22 Oct 2023, when Internacional won 7-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Santos's record when hosting Internacional specifically: 0W 3D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
0
Santos
5
Draws
4
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Internacional?
From 9 meetings on record, Santos have won 0, Internacional have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Santos and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 19 March 2026, when Santos 1-2 Internacional.
Who has won more matches between Santos and Internacional?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Santos see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Internacional see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Santos 21% BTTS, Internacional 37%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 21% for Santos and 32% for Internacional.
On the defensive side: Santos keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Internacional in 32%; Santos have failed to score in 42% of games; Internacional in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santos home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santos play Internacional?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 21% of Santos's recent matches and 37% of Internacional's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santos vs Internacional usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Santos's recent games and 32% of Internacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Santos and Internacional share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Urbano Caldeira, Regular Season - 10, as Santos and Internacional drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.20 xG and Internacional 0.81 xG, a combined 2.01. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 1.17 / defence 0.82 against Internacional attack 1.00 / defence 0.83, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santos 45% | Draw 30% | Internacional 25%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 29%, Internacional 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santos's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Internacional's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Santos 1.32 PPG, Internacional 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.