Santos 0-0 Ceara – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Santos at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this Santos vs Ceara fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Santos host Ceara at Arena Barueri in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 21 May 2022 at 22:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Santos have gone 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
In front of their own supporters this season, Santos have posted 5W 2D 3L at Arena Barueri — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Barueri. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Ceara stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Ceara away from home this season: 1W 4D 5L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Santos at 1.80 PPG versus Ceara's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Santos, 0 for Ceara and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Sep 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Santos in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 21% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
Ceara in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Santos 32% versus Ceara 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Santos 29% | Ceara 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Santos 1.90 xG and Ceara 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Santos attack 1.371 / defence 0.934 | Ceara attack 1.117 / defence 1.004. League average goals — home 1.380 / away 0.894. Santos carry an above-average attack strength of 1.371 — their λ of 1.90 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 44 Santos games / 43 Ceara games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Santos 60% | Draw 22% | Ceara 18%. Fair-value odds: Santos 1.67 | Draw 4.55 | Ceara 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Santos (60%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.83. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.83 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Santos at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.83 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. This conflicts with form data: Santos 10% | Ceara 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Santos vs Ceara | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Arena Barueri • Kick-off: Saturday 21 May 2022, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Santos 60% | Draw 22% | Ceara 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 52% | xG Santos 1.90 / Ceara 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: Santos attack 1.371 / def 0.934 | Ceara attack 1.117 / def 1.004 | league avg home 1.380 / away 0.894 • Poisson stance: Santos (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.90
Santos xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Ceara xG
52%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Santos vs Ceara kick off?
Santos vs Ceara kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 21 May 2022 at Arena Barueri.
What was the final score in Santos vs Ceara?
Santos 0 - 0 Ceara.
Where is Santos vs Ceara being played?
The match is being played at Arena Barueri.
What competition is Santos vs Ceara part of?
Santos vs Ceara is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Santos vs Ceara?
Our statistical model gives Santos a 60% chance of winning, Ceara a 18% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Santos the favourite.
Will both teams score in Santos vs Ceara?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Santos and Ceara will score (BTTS).
Will Santos vs Ceara have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Ceara?
Record (2 meetings): Santos 1W | Draws 1 | Ceara 0W.
What form are Santos and Ceara in?
Santos (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Ceara (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Santos's attacking strength (1.37x league average) is weighed against Ceara's defensive record (1.00x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.90. The same calculation in reverse, Ceara's attack versus Santos's defence, projects 0.93 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.8%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.6%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Santos Win
60%
1.67
22%
4.55
18%
5.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
1 – 1
10.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.90
Santos xG
Total xG
2.83
0.93
Ceara xG
1.67
60%
Home win
4.55
22%
Draw
5.55
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
39%
2.54
15%
6.69
Win to Nil
24%
4.23
3%
37.12
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.9 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.2 | 10.4 | 4.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.7 | 6.3 | 2.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Santos vs Ceara?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.8%.
How many goals are Santos and Ceara expected to score?
The model projects 1.90 expected goals for Santos and 0.93 for Ceara, a combined total of 2.83.
How confident is the prediction model for Santos vs Ceara?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 38 outings, Santos have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 12W 14D 12L record — L-W-D-W-D across the most recent five.
Ceara's form line: 11W 17D 10L from 38 games, 1.32 PPG, last five D-W-L-D-L.
Form-wise this is close to level: Santos on 1.32 PPG, Ceara on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Santos have posted 1.74 PPG from 19 outings (9W 6D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Santos are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Ceara have gone 1W 10D 8L from 19 away games — 0.68 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Ceara's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Santos come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Santos are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.05 conceded per game recently; Ceara are on 1.03 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Santos have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Ceara in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Santos
Current Season
Ceara
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Santos and Ceara in coming into this match?
Santos have gone 12W 14D 12L in their last 38 games (1.32 PPG), while Ceara have gone 11W 17D 10L in their last 38 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Santos at home or Ceara away?
Santos's home record (1.74 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Santos at home: 1.74 PPG; Ceara away: 0.68 PPG.
Have Santos or Ceara been keeping clean sheets recently?
Santos have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Ceara in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Santos and Ceara runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 6 October 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 6 Oct 2025, when Ceara won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Santos's record when hosting Ceara specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Santos
3
Draws
2
Ceara
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Santos and Ceara?
From 6 meetings on record, Santos have won 1, Ceara have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Santos and Ceara last play each other?
They last met on 6 October 2025, when Ceara 3-0 Santos.
Who has won more matches between Santos and Ceara?
Ceara have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Santos see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Ceara are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Santos 21%, Ceara 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 21% for Santos and 37% for Ceara.
On the defensive side: Santos keep a clean sheet in 58% of their matches; Ceara in 32%; Santos have failed to score in 42% of games; Ceara in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Santos home games / Ceara away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Santos play Ceara?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 21% of Santos's recent matches and 53% of Ceara's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Santos vs Ceara usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Santos's recent games and 37% of Ceara's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Santos and Ceara tend to score early?
Santos have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Ceara in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Santos's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Barueri, Regular Season - 7, as Santos and Ceara drew 0-0 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Santos 1.90 xG and Ceara 0.93 xG, a combined 2.83. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Santos fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Ceara landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Santos attack 1.37 / defence 0.93 against Ceara attack 1.12 / defence 1.00, drawn from 44/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Santos 60% | Draw 22% | Ceara 18%, with Santos to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 77% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Santos 29%, Ceara 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Santos's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ceara's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Santos 1.32 PPG, Ceara 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Santos (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward. Ceara (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.