Remo 1-2 Atletico Paranaense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Remo at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Remo vs Atletico Paranaense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Remo and Atletico Paranaense meet at Mangueirão in Serie A, Regular Season - 17. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 24 May 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Atletico Paranaense's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Atletico Paranaense haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Atletico Paranaense away from home this season: 1W 3D 6L from 10 away games — 0.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Remo 1.32 xG and Atletico Paranaense 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Remo attack 0.825 / defence 1.087 | Atletico Paranaense attack 0.699 / defence 1.089. League average goals — home 1.471 / away 1.110. Data: 16 Remo games / 16 Atletico Paranaense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Remo 47% | Draw 30% | Atletico Paranaense 23%. Fair-value odds: Remo 2.13 | Draw 3.33 | Atletico Paranaense 4.35. Remo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Remo are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Remo if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.17 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Remo vs Atletico Paranaense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Mangueirão • Kick-off: Sunday 24 May 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Remo 47% | Draw 30% | Atletico Paranaense 23% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 42% | xG Remo 1.32 / Atletico Paranaense 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Remo attack 0.825 / def 1.087 | Atletico Paranaense attack 0.699 / def 1.089 | league avg home 1.471 / away 1.110 • Poisson stance: Remo (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.32
Remo xG
Expected Goals
0.84
Atletico Paranaense xG
42%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Remo vs Atletico Paranaense kick off?
Remo vs Atletico Paranaense kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 24 May 2026 at Mangueirão.
What was the final score in Remo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Remo 1 - 2 Atletico Paranaense.
Where is Remo vs Atletico Paranaense being played?
The match is being played at Mangueirão.
What competition is Remo vs Atletico Paranaense part of?
Remo vs Atletico Paranaense is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Remo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our statistical model gives Remo a 47% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 23% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Remo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Remo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both Remo and Atletico Paranaense will score (BTTS).
Will Remo vs Atletico Paranaense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Remo and Atletico Paranaense?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Remo and Atletico Paranaense in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Atletico Paranaense (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Remo's attack at 0.82x the league average against Atletico Paranaense's defence at 1.09x — combine the two and it projects 1.32 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Atletico Paranaense's attack (0.70x) against Remo's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from 16/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (13.5%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Remo Win
47%
2.12
30%
3.38
23%
4.30
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
11.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.32
Remo xG
Total xG
2.17
0.84
Atletico Paranaense xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
4.30
23%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
27%
3.75
Win to Nil
20%
4.93
6%
16.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 9.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 15.2 | 12.8 | 5.4 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.0 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Remo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Remo and Atletico Paranaense expected to score?
The model projects 1.32 expected goals for Remo and 0.84 for Atletico Paranaense, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Remo vs Atletico Paranaense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Remo
Pre-Season
Atletico Paranaense
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 24 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Remo
0
Draws
1
Atletico Paranaense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Remo and Atletico Paranaense?
From 1 meetings on record, Remo have won 0, Atletico Paranaense have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Remo and Atletico Paranaense last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Remo 1-2 Atletico Paranaense.
Who has won more matches between Remo and Atletico Paranaense?
Atletico Paranaense have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 1 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Remo home games / Atletico Paranaense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Shock result as Atletico Paranaense defy the odds to beat Remo 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atletico Paranaense beat Remo 1-2 at Mangueirão, Regular Season - 17, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Remo 1.32 xG and Atletico Paranaense 0.84 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Atletico Paranaense outscored their 0.84 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Remo attack 0.82 / defence 1.09 against Atletico Paranaense attack 0.70 / defence 1.09, drawn from 16/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Remo 47% | Draw 30% | Atletico Paranaense 23%, with Remo to win its most likely call at 47%. Instead the game produced a Atletico Paranaense win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.