RB Bragantino 1-0 Mirassol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates RB Bragantino at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this RB Bragantino vs Mirassol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques plays host to RB Bragantino versus Mirassol in Serie A, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Monday 5 May 2025 at 23:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
RB Bragantino have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 5D 3L. Last five: D L D W W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, RB Bragantino have posted 2W 6D 2L at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques — 1.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects RB Bragantino 1.62 xG and Mirassol 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: RB Bragantino attack 0.996 / defence 0.985 | Mirassol attack 1.073 / defence 1.147. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 0.856. Data: 44 RB Bragantino games / 6 Mirassol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: RB Bragantino 53% | Draw 28% | Mirassol 20%. Fair-value odds: RB Bragantino 1.89 | Draw 3.57 | Mirassol 5.00. RB Bragantino hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates RB Bragantino as the most likely outcome at 53% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on RB Bragantino if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: RB Bragantino vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques • Kick-off: Monday 5 May 2025, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: RB Bragantino 53% | Draw 28% | Mirassol 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 49% | xG RB Bragantino 1.62 / Mirassol 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: RB Bragantino attack 0.996 / def 0.985 | Mirassol attack 1.073 / def 1.147 | league avg home 1.416 / away 0.856 • Poisson stance: RB Bragantino (53%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.62
RB Bragantino xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Mirassol xG
49%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does RB Bragantino vs Mirassol kick off?
RB Bragantino vs Mirassol kicked off at 23:00 on Monday 5 May 2025 at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques.
What was the final score in RB Bragantino vs Mirassol?
RB Bragantino 1 - 0 Mirassol.
Where is RB Bragantino vs Mirassol being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques.
What competition is RB Bragantino vs Mirassol part of?
RB Bragantino vs Mirassol is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win RB Bragantino vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives RB Bragantino a 53% chance of winning, Mirassol a 20% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making RB Bragantino the favourite.
Will both teams score in RB Bragantino vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both RB Bragantino and Mirassol will score (BTTS).
Will RB Bragantino vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Mirassol?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are RB Bragantino and Mirassol in?
RB Bragantino (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-W-W. RB Bragantino home split: 1.20 PPG from 10 | GF 1.40 / GA 1.10 | CS 2.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from RB Bragantino's attack rating (1.00) and Mirassol's defence rating (1.15), the model arrives at 1.62 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Mirassol's attack (1.07x) against RB Bragantino's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 44/6 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
RB Bragantino Win
53%
1.90
28%
3.61
20%
5.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.62
RB Bragantino xG
Total xG
2.52
0.90
Mirassol xG
1.90
53%
Home win
3.61
28%
Draw
5.10
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
20%
5.04
Win to Nil
21%
4.68
4%
25.70
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 7.3 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.7 | 5.3 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.5 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.1 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for RB Bragantino vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are RB Bragantino and Mirassol expected to score?
The model projects 1.62 expected goals for RB Bragantino and 0.90 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for RB Bragantino vs Mirassol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 53%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
RB Bragantino
Pre-Season
Mirassol
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since May 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 3 Meetings
2
RB Bragantino
1
Draws
0
Mirassol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between RB Bragantino and Mirassol?
From 3 meetings on record, RB Bragantino have won 2, Mirassol have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did RB Bragantino and Mirassol last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Mirassol 0-1 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between RB Bragantino and Mirassol?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = RB Bragantino home games / Mirassol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Prediction vindicated as RB Bragantino edge out Mirassol 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
RB Bragantino beat Mirassol 1-0 at Estádio Cicero de Souza Marques, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting RB Bragantino 1.62 xG and Mirassol 0.90 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Mirassol landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of RB Bragantino attack 1.00 / defence 0.98 against Mirassol attack 1.07 / defence 1.15, drawn from 44/6 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it RB Bragantino 53% | Draw 28% | Mirassol 20%, with RB Bragantino to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.