Palmeiras 5-1 Vitoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Palmeiras at 65%, yet other data sources diverge — this Palmeiras vs Vitoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Palmeiras host Vitoria at Arena Barueri in Serie A, Regular Season - 2. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 5 February 2026 at 00:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Palmeiras — All Games: 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.50 points per game. Last five: D D L W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Arena Barueri, Palmeiras have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Barueri. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Palmeiras are significantly better at Arena Barueri than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Vitoria stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Vitoria's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.50 PPG (Palmeiras) versus 1.70 (Vitoria). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Palmeiras, 1 for Vitoria and 2 shared spoils from 4 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.8 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 19 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Palmeiras in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 74% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Vitoria in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 43% versus Vitoria 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 47% | Vitoria 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.97 xG and Vitoria 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.099 / defence 0.820 | Vitoria attack 0.947 / defence 1.155. League average goals — home 1.552 / away 1.047. Data: 39 Palmeiras games / 39 Vitoria games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 65% | Draw 21% | Vitoria 15%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.54 | Draw 4.76 | Vitoria 6.67. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (65%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.78. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.78 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 65% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.78 combined xG gives a 53% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 40% | Vitoria 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Vitoria | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Arena Barueri • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Feb 2026, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 65% | Draw 21% | Vitoria 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 48% | xG Palmeiras 1.97 / Vitoria 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.099 / def 0.820 | Vitoria attack 0.947 / def 1.155 | league avg home 1.552 / away 1.047 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (65%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.81
Vitoria xG
48%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Vitoria kick off?
Palmeiras vs Vitoria kicked off at 00:30 on Thursday 5 February 2026 at Arena Barueri.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Vitoria?
Palmeiras 5 - 1 Vitoria.
Where is Palmeiras vs Vitoria being played?
The match is being played at Arena Barueri.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Vitoria part of?
Palmeiras vs Vitoria is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Vitoria?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 65% chance of winning, Vitoria a 15% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Vitoria?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Palmeiras and Vitoria will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Vitoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Vitoria?
Record (4 meetings): Palmeiras 1W | Draws 2 | Vitoria 1W.
What form are Palmeiras and Vitoria in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-L-W-W. Vitoria (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Palmeiras's attacking strength (1.10x league average) is weighed against Vitoria's defensive record (1.16x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.97. The same calculation in reverse, Vitoria's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
65%
1.55
21%
4.80
15%
6.83
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.78
0.81
Vitoria xG
1.55
65%
Home win
4.80
21%
Draw
6.83
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
30%
Over 3.5
3.33
70%
Under 3.5
1.43
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
44%
2.25
14%
7.17
Win to Nil
29%
3.50
2%
48.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 12.2 | 9.9 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.8 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 7.9 | 6.4 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Vitoria?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.0%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Vitoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.81 for Vitoria, a combined total of 2.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Vitoria?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 65%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 76 outings, Palmeiras have picked up 1.96 PPG on a 45W 14D 17L record — D-D-L-W-W across the most recent five.
Vitoria's form line: 24W 20D 32L from 76 games, 1.21 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-W.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 0.75 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Vitoria.
Venue Form
On home soil, Palmeiras have posted 2.08 PPG from 38 outings (24W 7D 7L).
On the road, Vitoria have gone 7W 11D 20L from 38 away games — 0.84 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palmeiras are averaging 1.66 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Vitoria are on 1.05 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
Vitoria
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Vitoria in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 45W 14D 17L in their last 76 games (1.96 PPG), while Vitoria have gone 24W 20D 32L in their last 76 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Vitoria away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.08 PPG; Vitoria away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Vitoria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Vitoria in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Feb 2026, when Palmeiras won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palmeiras's record when hosting Vitoria specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Palmeiras
2
Draws
1
Vitoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Vitoria?
From 6 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 3, Vitoria have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Vitoria last play each other?
They last met on 30 July 2026, when Vitoria 0-4 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Vitoria?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palmeiras see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Vitoria are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 37%, Vitoria 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Palmeiras) and 47% (Vitoria).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Palmeiras have failed to score in 29% of games; Vitoria in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Vitoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Vitoria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 53% of Vitoria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Vitoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Palmeiras's recent games and 47% of Vitoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Vitoria tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Vitoria in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Palmeiras run riot with a 5-1 hammering of Vitoria.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Vitoria 5-1 at Arena Barueri, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.97 xG and Vitoria 0.81 xG, a combined 2.78. The scoreboard read 5-1 for 6 actual goals. Palmeiras beat their projection by 3.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.10 / defence 0.82 against Vitoria attack 0.95 / defence 1.16, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 65% | Draw 21% | Vitoria 15%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 65%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 30% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 47%, Vitoria 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Vitoria's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.96 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Palmeiras (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.82 average — above their attacking norm. Vitoria (home/away splits) shipped 5 against a 1.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.