Palmeiras 1-1 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Palmeiras host RB Bragantino at Allianz Parque in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 13 May 2023 at 22:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palmeiras stand at 6W 3D 1L from 10 Serie A matches — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Palmeiras's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Allianz Parque this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Parque. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Palmeiras are significantly better at Allianz Parque than their overall form suggests.
RB Bragantino — All Games: 3W 0D 7L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie A this season, RB Bragantino have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Palmeiras have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Palmeiras have won 1, RB Bragantino 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 4.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Sep 2022, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Palmeiras in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
RB Bragantino in-play and half-time data (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 49% versus RB Bragantino 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 53% | RB Bragantino 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 2.33 xG and RB Bragantino 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.305 / defence 0.916 | RB Bragantino attack 1.084 / defence 1.227. League average goals — home 1.457 / away 1.229. Palmeiras carry an above-average attack strength of 1.305 — their λ of 2.33 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. RB Bragantino bring a strong defensive rating of 1.227 — this is suppressing Palmeiras's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 43 Palmeiras games / 43 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 61% | Draw 21% | RB Bragantino 18%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.64 | Draw 4.76 | RB Bragantino 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (61%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 69% | BTTS probability 65% | Total xG 3.55. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 69% — a total xG of 3.55 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 65% reflects that both xG figures (2.33 / 1.22) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.55 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 69% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 65% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Palmeiras 40% | RB Bragantino 60%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Saturday 13 May 2023, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 61% | Draw 21% | RB Bragantino 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 69% | BTTS 65% | xG Palmeiras 2.33 / RB Bragantino 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.305 / def 0.916 | RB Bragantino attack 1.084 / def 1.227 | league avg home 1.457 / away 1.229 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.33
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
1.22
RB Bragantino xG
65%
BTTS
88%
Over 1.5
69%
Over 2.5
48%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 13 May 2023 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino?
Palmeiras 1 - 1 RB Bragantino.
Where is Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino part of?
Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 61% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 18% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 65% probability that both Palmeiras and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 69%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and RB Bragantino?
Record (3 meetings): Palmeiras 1W | Draws 1 | RB Bragantino 1W.
What form are Palmeiras and RB Bragantino in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-L. RB Bragantino (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Palmeiras's attack at 1.30x the league average against RB Bragantino's defence at 1.23x — combine the two and it projects 2.33 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, RB Bragantino's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 1.22 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 43/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 2-0 (7.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
61%
1.63
21%
4.75
18%
5.64
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.1%
Draw
2 – 0
7.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.33
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
3.55
1.22
RB Bragantino xG
1.63
61%
Home win
4.75
21%
Draw
5.64
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
87%
Over 1.5
1.15
13%
Under 1.5
7.69
69%
Over 2.5
1.45
31%
Under 2.5
3.23
47%
Over 3.5
2.13
53%
Under 3.5
1.89
28%
Over 4.5
3.57
72%
Under 4.5
1.39
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
65%
BTTS Yes
1.55
35%
BTTS No
2.83
Clean Sheet
30%
3.39
10%
10.32
Win to Nil
18%
5.53
2%
58.17
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 2.1 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.7 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.8 | 9.5 | 5.8 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.1 | 7.4 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.5 | 4.3 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.5%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 2.33 expected goals for Palmeiras and 1.22 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 3.55.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Palmeiras come into this having played 76 games, going 43W 18D 15L for 1.93 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-L.
On the other side, RB Bragantino sit at 1.32 PPG from 76 outings (25W 25D 26L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-L across their last five.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.61 PPG clear of RB Bragantino — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Palmeiras's home form reads 24W 7D 7L across 38 games on their own ground, a 2.08 PPG return.
Away from home, RB Bragantino have taken 1.08 points per game from 38 outings (10W 11D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Palmeiras are averaging 1.63 goals scored and 0.92 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.37 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
RB Bragantino
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 43W 18D 15L in their last 76 games (1.93 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 25W 25D 26L in their last 76 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or RB Bragantino away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.08 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or RB Bragantino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, RB Bragantino in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Palmeiras and RB Bragantino runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 26 April 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Palmeiras go into this on the back of 3 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 15 Oct 2025, when Palmeiras won 5-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palmeiras's record when hosting RB Bragantino specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Palmeiras
3
Draws
2
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and RB Bragantino?
From 10 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 5, RB Bragantino have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 26 April 2026, when RB Bragantino 0-1 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and RB Bragantino?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 50%, RB Bragantino 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Palmeiras) and 58% (RB Bragantino). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 34% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; RB Bragantino in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play RB Bragantino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 58% of RB Bragantino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Palmeiras's matches and 58% of RB Bragantino's.
Do Palmeiras and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Palmeiras and RB Bragantino share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 6, as Palmeiras and RB Bragantino drew 1-1 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 2.33 xG and RB Bragantino 1.22 xG, a combined 3.55. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Palmeiras fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.30 / defence 0.92 against RB Bragantino attack 1.08 / defence 1.23, drawn from 43/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 61% | Draw 21% | RB Bragantino 18%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 61%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 69%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 88% and landed. Over 3.5 was 48% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 65% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 53%, RB Bragantino 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.89 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.