Palmeiras 2-1 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Palmeiras (72%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Palmeiras face Juventude.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Juventude travel to Allianz Parque to take on Palmeiras. The game is scheduled for Sunday 11 September 2022, 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Palmeiras have gone 6W 4D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.20 PPG return. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palmeiras at Allianz Parque this season: 6W 3D 1L from 10 home games — 2.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Allianz Parque.
Juventude — All Games: 1W 4D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Juventude have posted 1W 3D 6L from 10 away outings — 0.60 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
Palmeiras are in the better shape of the two on current Serie A data — 1.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.70). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Palmeiras have won 2, Juventude 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2022, ended 3–0 with Palmeiras winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Palmeiras in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
Juventude in-play tendencies (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 49% versus Juventude 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 51% | Juventude 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 2.18 xG and Juventude 0.67 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.245 / defence 0.929 | Juventude attack 0.783 / defence 1.350. League average goals — home 1.296 / away 0.917. Juventude bring a strong defensive rating of 1.350 — this is suppressing Palmeiras's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 63 Palmeiras games / 63 Juventude games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 72% | Draw 18% | Juventude 10%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.39 | Draw 5.56 | Juventude 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Palmeiras (72%) — a 62pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 72% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.84 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 54% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 40% | Juventude 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Allianz Parque • Kick-off: Sunday 11 Sep 2022, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 72% | Draw 18% | Juventude 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 43% | xG Palmeiras 2.18 / Juventude 0.67 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.245 / def 0.929 | Juventude attack 0.783 / def 1.350 | league avg home 1.296 / away 0.917 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.18
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.67
Juventude xG
43%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Juventude kick off?
Palmeiras vs Juventude kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 11 September 2022 at Allianz Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Juventude?
Palmeiras 2 - 1 Juventude.
Where is Palmeiras vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Allianz Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Juventude part of?
Palmeiras vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 72% chance of winning, Juventude a 10% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Palmeiras and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Juventude?
Record (3 meetings): Palmeiras 2W | Draws 1 | Juventude 0W.
What form are Palmeiras and Juventude in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Juventude (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Palmeiras's attack at 1.25x the league average against Juventude's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 2.18 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juventude's attack versus Palmeiras's defence, projects 0.67 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 3-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
72%
1.39
18%
5.60
10%
10.01
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
3 – 0
10.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.18
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.84
0.67
Juventude xG
1.39
72%
Home win
5.60
18%
Draw
10.01
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
51%
1.95
11%
8.83
Win to Nil
37%
2.70
1%
88.37
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 8.4 | 2.8 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.8 | 9.2 | 3.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 10.0 | 6.7 | 2.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.2 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 2.18 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.67 for Juventude, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Juventude?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Palmeiras come into this having played 63 games, going 34W 15D 14L for 1.86 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-D. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Juventude sit at 1.02 PPG from 63 outings (14W 22D 27L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.84 PPG clear of Juventude — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Palmeiras's home form reads 18W 6D 7L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.94 PPG return.
Away from home, Juventude have taken 0.65 points per game from 31 outings (3W 11D 17L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Palmeiras are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 0.87 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Blended
Juventude
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Juventude in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 34W 15D 14L in their last 63 games (1.86 PPG), while Juventude have gone 14W 22D 27L in their last 63 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Juventude away?
Palmeiras's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 1.94 PPG; Juventude away: 0.65 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Juventude been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 41% of their recent games, Juventude in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 November 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Palmeiras have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 17 Jun 2021, when Palmeiras won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Palmeiras's record when hosting Juventude specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Palmeiras
1
Draws
0
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Juventude?
From 8 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 7, Juventude have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 2 November 2025, when Juventude 0-2 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Juventude?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time.
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 55%, Juventude 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Palmeiras) and 42% (Juventude).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Juventude in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Juventude?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 55% of Palmeiras's games and 58% of Juventude's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Palmeiras vs Juventude usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Palmeiras's recent games and 42% of Juventude's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Juventude tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Juventude in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Palmeiras edge out Juventude 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras beat Juventude 2-1 at Allianz Parque, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 2.18 xG and Juventude 0.67 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.25 / defence 0.93 against Juventude attack 0.78 / defence 1.35, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 72% | Draw 18% | Juventude 10%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 72%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 51%, Juventude 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Juventude's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.02. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.