Palmeiras 0-0 Internacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Palmeiras (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Palmeiras face Internacional.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Internacional make the trip to Nubank Parque to face Palmeiras in Serie A, Regular Season - 22. The match kicks off on Sunday 9 August 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Form
Palmeiras (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Palmeiras's home record at Nubank Parque: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Internacional's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L L L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Internacional, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Internacional's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The points-per-game gap of 1.20 in Palmeiras's favour (2.10 vs 0.90) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Palmeiras have seen both teams score in 70% of their games, Internacional in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
Across 9 previous meetings, Palmeiras are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 2, with 2 draws in between.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.4 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2026, ended 3–1 with Palmeiras winning.
The historical record gives Palmeiras a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Palmeiras goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Internacional goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 54% versus Internacional 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 54% | Internacional 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.60 xG and Internacional 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.013 / defence 0.929 | Internacional attack 0.902 / defence 1.170. League average goals — home 1.348 / away 1.119. Data: 59 Palmeiras games / 59 Internacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 51% | Draw 29% | Internacional 20%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Internacional 5.00. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Palmeiras as the most likely outcome at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palmeiras if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.54 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 70% | Internacional 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Nubank Parque • Kick-off: Sunday 9 Aug 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 51% | Draw 29% | Internacional 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Palmeiras 1.60 / Internacional 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.013 / def 0.929 | Internacional attack 0.902 / def 1.170 | league avg home 1.348 / away 1.119 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.60
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Internacional xG
51%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Internacional kick off?
Palmeiras vs Internacional kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 9 August 2026 at Nubank Parque.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Internacional?
Palmeiras 0 - 0 Internacional.
Where is Palmeiras vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Nubank Parque.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Internacional part of?
Palmeiras vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 51% chance of winning, Internacional a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Palmeiras and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Internacional?
Record (9 meetings): Palmeiras 5W | Draws 2 | Internacional 2W.
What form are Palmeiras and Internacional in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-W-W-L-W. Internacional (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Palmeiras's attack at 1.01x the league average against Internacional's defence at 1.17x — combine the two and it projects 1.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Internacional's attack (0.90x) against Palmeiras's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 59/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.1%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
51%
1.97
29%
3.41
20%
5.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.60
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.54
0.94
Internacional xG
1.97
51%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
5.00
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
20%
4.94
Win to Nil
20%
5.04
4%
24.68
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 7.4 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.7 | 11.9 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.5 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 1.60 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.94 for Internacional, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Internacional?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 59 outings, Palmeiras have picked up 2.08 PPG on a 37W 12D 10L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Internacional's form line: 16W 18D 25L from 59 games, 1.12 PPG, last five L-L-L-L-D. The sample for Internacional is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 0.96 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Internacional.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Palmeiras have posted 2.21 PPG from 29 outings (19W 7D 3L).
On the road, Internacional have gone 5W 9D 15L from 29 away games — 0.83 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Palmeiras are averaging 1.76 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Internacional are on 1.14 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 59 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Blended
Internacional
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Internacional in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 37W 12D 10L in their last 59 games (2.08 PPG), while Internacional have gone 16W 18D 25L in their last 59 (1.12 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Internacional away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.21 PPG; Internacional away: 0.83 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Internacional been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Internacional in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Internacional won 3-0 on 13 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palmeiras have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Internacional — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Palmeiras
3
Draws
2
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Internacional?
From 10 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 5, Internacional have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when Palmeiras 0-0 Internacional.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Internacional?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Palmeiras see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Internacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 48%, Internacional 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (Palmeiras) and 48% (Internacional).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 45% of their matches; Internacional in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Internacional?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 48% of Palmeiras's games and 62% of Internacional's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Palmeiras vs Internacional usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of Palmeiras's recent games and 48% of Internacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Internacional tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Internacional in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Palmeiras's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Palmeiras and Internacional finished level at 0-0 at Nubank Parque, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.60 xG and Internacional 0.94 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Palmeiras fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Internacional landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.01 / defence 0.93 against Internacional attack 0.90 / defence 1.17, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 51% | Draw 29% | Internacional 20%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 54%, Internacional 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Internacional's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.12. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.79 scoring average — below par going forward. Internacional (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.93 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.79 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.