Palmeiras 0-1 Internacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 49% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Palmeiras vs Internacional encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Internacional make the trip to Arena Barueri to face Palmeiras in Serie A, Regular Season - 2. The match kicks off on Thursday 18 April 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Form
Palmeiras (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Palmeiras's home record at Arena Barueri: 8W 0D 2L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 8 clean sheets from 10 home games (80%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Barueri. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Internacional's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Internacional's form when playing away from home: 4W 2D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.40 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.30 for Palmeiras, 2.00 for Internacional — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 5 meetings: Palmeiras 3W, Internacional 1W, 1D.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Nov 2023, ended 3–0 with Palmeiras winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Palmeiras goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Internacional goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Palmeiras 45% versus Internacional 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Palmeiras 49% | Internacional 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Palmeiras 1.47 xG and Internacional 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Palmeiras attack 1.104 / defence 0.878 | Internacional attack 1.000 / defence 0.951. League average goals — home 1.399 / away 1.092. Data: 39 Palmeiras games / 39 Internacional games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Palmeiras 49% | Draw 27% | Internacional 24%. Fair-value odds: Palmeiras 2.04 | Draw 3.70 | Internacional 4.17. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.43. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.43 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Palmeiras as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Palmeiras if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates corroborate: Palmeiras 10% | Internacional 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Palmeiras vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 2 | Venue: Arena Barueri • Kick-off: Thursday 18 Apr 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Palmeiras 49% | Draw 27% | Internacional 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 48% | xG Palmeiras 1.47 / Internacional 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Palmeiras attack 1.104 / def 0.878 | Internacional attack 1.000 / def 0.951 | league avg home 1.399 / away 1.092 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Palmeiras xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Internacional xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Palmeiras vs Internacional kick off?
Palmeiras vs Internacional kicked off at 00:00 on Thursday 18 April 2024 at Arena Barueri.
What was the final score in Palmeiras vs Internacional?
Palmeiras 0 - 1 Internacional.
Where is Palmeiras vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Arena Barueri.
What competition is Palmeiras vs Internacional part of?
Palmeiras vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 2 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Palmeiras vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Palmeiras a 49% chance of winning, Internacional a 24% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Palmeiras vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Palmeiras and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Palmeiras vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Internacional?
Record (5 meetings): Palmeiras 3W | Draws 1 | Internacional 1W.
What form are Palmeiras and Internacional in?
Palmeiras (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-D. Internacional (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Palmeiras's attack at 1.10x the league average against Internacional's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Internacional's attack (1.00x) against Palmeiras's defence (0.88x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
The sample (39/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
49%
2.05
27%
3.72
24%
4.10
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Palmeiras xG
Total xG
2.43
0.96
Internacional xG
2.05
49%
Home win
3.72
27%
Draw
4.10
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
19%
5.35
6%
17.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 8.5 | 4.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.0 | 12.4 | 6.0 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.5 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.7 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Palmeiras vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Palmeiras and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Palmeiras and 0.96 for Internacional, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Palmeiras vs Internacional?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 76 outings, Palmeiras have picked up 1.99 PPG on a 43W 22D 11L record — W-D-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Internacional's form line: 35W 23D 18L from 76 games, 1.68 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.99 PPG for Palmeiras against 1.68 for Internacional. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Palmeiras have posted 2.29 PPG from 38 outings (27W 6D 5L).
On the road, Internacional have gone 13W 13D 12L from 38 away games — 1.37 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Palmeiras are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Internacional are on 1.37 scored and 1.00 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games; Internacional in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Palmeiras
Current Season
Internacional
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Palmeiras and Internacional in coming into this match?
Palmeiras have gone 43W 22D 11L in their last 76 games (1.99 PPG), while Internacional have gone 35W 23D 18L in their last 76 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Palmeiras at home or Internacional away?
Palmeiras's home record (2.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Palmeiras at home: 2.29 PPG; Internacional away: 1.37 PPG.
Have Palmeiras or Internacional been keeping clean sheets recently?
Palmeiras have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Internacional in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 13 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Palmeiras have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Internacional won 3-0 on 13 Nov 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Palmeiras have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Internacional — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Palmeiras
2
Draws
2
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Palmeiras and Internacional?
From 10 meetings on record, Palmeiras have won 6, Internacional have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Palmeiras and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 13 February 2026, when Internacional 1-3 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Palmeiras and Internacional?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Internacional see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Palmeiras 40%, Internacional 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Palmeiras) and 34% (Internacional).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches; Internacional in 32%; Internacional in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Palmeiras home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Palmeiras play Internacional?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Palmeiras's recent matches and 47% of Internacional's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Palmeiras vs Internacional usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Palmeiras's recent games and 34% of Internacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Palmeiras and Internacional tend to score early?
Palmeiras have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Internacional in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Internacional defy the odds to beat Palmeiras 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Internacional beat Palmeiras 0-1 at Arena Barueri, Regular Season - 2, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Palmeiras 1.47 xG and Internacional 0.96 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Palmeiras fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Palmeiras attack 1.10 / defence 0.88 against Internacional attack 1.00 / defence 0.95, drawn from 39/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Palmeiras 49% | Draw 27% | Internacional 24%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Internacional win, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Palmeiras 49%, Internacional 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Palmeiras's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Internacional's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Palmeiras 1.99 PPG, Internacional 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Internacional win broke the near-deadlock. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.95 scoring average — below par going forward. Internacional (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.