Juventude 1-3 Internacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventude at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventude vs Internacional fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Juventude host Internacional at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi in Serie A, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 1 September 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Juventude stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D W L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventude's home record at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Juventude are significantly better at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Internacional have recorded 2W 5D 3L from 10 outings — 1.10 PPG. Last five: D W L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Internacional, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Internacional away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Juventude at 1.20 PPG versus Internacional's 1.10. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Juventude, 3 for Internacional and 1 shared spoils from 5 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2024, ended 1–2 with Internacional winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Juventude in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 86% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games).
Internacional in-play tendencies (23 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 9% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Juventude 70% and Internacional 56% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Juventude 48% | Internacional 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.00 xG and Internacional 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 1.017 / defence 0.949 | Internacional attack 0.733 / defence 0.738. League average goals — home 1.330 / away 1.032. Internacional's defence strength of 0.738 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 23 Juventude games / 59 Internacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 41% | Draw 33% | Internacional 26%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 2.44 | Draw 3.03 | Internacional 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 32% | Total xG 1.72. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.72 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 68% — Internacional's lower xG of 0.72 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 32%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Juventude at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Juventude offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.72 combined xG gives a 25% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 32% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Juventude 60% | Internacional 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Sep 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 41% | Draw 33% | Internacional 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 32% | xG Juventude 1.00 / Internacional 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 1.017 / def 0.949 | Internacional attack 0.733 / def 0.738 | league avg home 1.330 / away 1.032 • Poisson stance: Juventude (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Internacional xG
32%
BTTS
51%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Internacional kick off?
Juventude vs Internacional kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 1 September 2024 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Internacional?
Juventude 1 - 3 Internacional.
Where is Juventude vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Internacional part of?
Juventude vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 41% chance of winning, Internacional a 26% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 32% probability that both Juventude and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Internacional?
Record (5 meetings): Juventude 1W | Draws 1 | Internacional 3W.
What form are Juventude and Internacional in?
Juventude (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-W-L-W-L. Internacional (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Juventude's attack rating (1.02) and Internacional's defence rating (0.74), the model arrives at 1.00 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Internacional's attack versus Juventude's defence, projects 0.72 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 23/59 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 19.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.3%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
41%
2.44
33%
2.99
26%
3.92
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
18.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
17.9%
Home win
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Juventude xG
Total xG
1.72
0.72
Internacional xG
2.44
41%
Home win
2.99
33%
Draw
3.92
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
51%
Over 1.5
1.96
49%
Under 1.5
2.04
25%
Over 2.5
4.00
75%
Under 2.5
1.33
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
32%
BTTS Yes
3.09
68%
BTTS No
1.48
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
37%
2.71
Win to Nil
20%
5.00
9%
10.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 18.0 | 12.9 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.9 | 12.9 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.0 | 6.4 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 19.7%.
How many goals are Juventude and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Juventude and 0.72 for Internacional, a combined total of 1.72.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Internacional?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 23 outings, Juventude have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 7W 7D 9L record — D-W-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Internacional's form line: 9W 8D 6L from 23 games, 1.52 PPG, last five D-W-L-W-D. The sample for Internacional is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Juventude on 1.22 PPG, Internacional on 1.52. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Juventude have posted 2.00 PPG from 11 outings (6W 4D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.22 PPG overall — Juventude are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Internacional have gone 3W 4D 4L from 11 away games — 1.18 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventude come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Juventude are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Internacional are on 1.04 scored and 0.87 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Juventude have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games.
Last 23 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Blended
Internacional
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Internacional in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 7W 7D 9L in their last 23 games (1.22 PPG), while Internacional have gone 9W 8D 6L in their last 23 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Internacional away?
Juventude's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 2.00 PPG; Internacional away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Juventude or Internacional been keeping clean sheets recently?
Juventude have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Internacional in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 27 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2022, when Internacional won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Juventude's record when hosting Internacional specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Juventude
2
Draws
5
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Internacional?
From 8 meetings on record, Juventude have won 1, Internacional have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 27 September 2025, when Juventude 1-1 Internacional.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Internacional?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Juventude are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Internacional see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 54%, Internacional 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 36% for Juventude and 9% for Internacional.
On the defensive side: Juventude keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Internacional in 36%; Internacional in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Internacional?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Juventude's recent matches and 36% of Internacional's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventude vs Internacional usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Juventude's recent games and 9% of Internacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Juventude and Internacional tend to score early?
Juventude have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Internacional in 54% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Internacional cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Juventude.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Internacional beat Juventude 1-3 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 25, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.00 xG and Internacional 0.72 xG, a combined 1.72. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Internacional outscored their 0.72 projection by 2.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 1.02 / defence 0.95 against Internacional attack 0.73 / defence 0.74, drawn from 23/59 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 41% | Draw 33% | Internacional 26%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Internacional win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 51% and landed. Over 3.5 was 10% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 48%, Internacional 35%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 63%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
Internacional's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventude 1.22 PPG, Internacional 1.52 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Internacional win broke the near-deadlock. Juventude (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 0.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Internacional (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.64 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.