Juventude 1-0 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Juventude at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Juventude vs Fluminense fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Juventude and Fluminense meet at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi in Serie A, Regular Season - 33. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 17 November 2021 at 23:30 UTC.
Form
Juventude (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L D D W W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Juventude at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi this season: 3W 5D 2L from 10 home games — 1.40 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Fluminense's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Fluminense away from home this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 away games — 0.70 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 1.30 PPG for Juventude against 1.30 for Fluminense. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Juventude lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Sep 2021, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Juventude — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at home): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games).
Fluminense — key trading statistics (31 games, 15 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Juventude 55% versus Fluminense 45%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Juventude 39% | Fluminense 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Juventude 1.05 xG and Fluminense 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Juventude attack 0.883 / defence 1.076 | Fluminense attack 0.697 / defence 1.218. League average goals — home 0.977 / away 0.948. Fluminense bring a strong defensive rating of 1.218 — this is suppressing Juventude's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 31 Juventude games / 32 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Juventude 43% | Draw 33% | Fluminense 24%. Fair-value odds: Juventude 2.33 | Draw 3.03 | Fluminense 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 1.76. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.76 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Fluminense's lower xG of 0.71 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Juventude are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Juventude if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.76 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Juventude 60% | Fluminense 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Juventude vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estádio Alfredo Jaconi • Kick-off: Wednesday 17 Nov 2021, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Juventude 43% | Draw 33% | Fluminense 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 33% | xG Juventude 1.05 / Fluminense 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Juventude attack 0.883 / def 1.076 | Fluminense attack 0.697 / def 1.218 | league avg home 0.977 / away 0.948 • Poisson stance: Juventude (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Juventude xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Fluminense xG
33%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Juventude vs Fluminense kick off?
Juventude vs Fluminense kicked off at 23:30 on Wednesday 17 November 2021 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What was the final score in Juventude vs Fluminense?
Juventude 1 - 0 Fluminense.
Where is Juventude vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi.
What competition is Juventude vs Fluminense part of?
Juventude vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Juventude vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Juventude a 43% chance of winning, Fluminense a 24% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Juventude the favourite.
Will both teams score in Juventude vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Juventude and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Juventude vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Fluminense?
Record (1 meetings): Juventude 0W | Draws 1 | Fluminense 0W.
What form are Juventude and Fluminense in?
Juventude (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-W-W. Fluminense (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Juventude's attack rating (0.88) and Fluminense's defence rating (1.22), the model arrives at 1.05 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Fluminense's attack (0.70x) against Juventude's defence (1.08x) — and the away total comes out at 0.71.
These ratings are built from 31/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (16.4%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 50% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Juventude Win
43%
2.34
33%
3.01
24%
4.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
18.0%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
17.2%
Draw
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Juventude xG
Total xG
1.76
0.71
Fluminense xG
2.34
43%
Home win
3.01
33%
Draw
4.15
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
10%
Over 3.5
10.00
90%
Under 3.5
1.11
3%
Over 4.5
33.33
97%
Under 4.5
1.03
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
2.99
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
21%
4.77
8%
11.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 17.2 | 12.2 | 4.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 18.0 | 12.8 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 9.5 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.3 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Juventude vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.9%.
How many goals are Juventude and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Juventude and 0.71 for Fluminense, a combined total of 1.76.
How confident is the prediction model for Juventude vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 31 outings, Juventude have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 8W 12D 11L record — L-D-D-W-W across the most recent five.
Fluminense's form line: 12W 8D 11L from 31 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.16 PPG for Juventude against 1.42 for Fluminense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Juventude have posted 1.60 PPG from 15 outings (6W 6D 3L). That's noticeably better than their 1.16 PPG overall — Juventude are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Fluminense have gone 4W 3D 8L from 15 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.42 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Juventude come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Juventude are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.00 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Last 31 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Juventude
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Juventude and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Juventude have gone 8W 12D 11L in their last 31 games (1.16 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 12W 8D 11L in their last 31 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Juventude at home or Fluminense away?
Juventude's home record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Juventude at home: 1.60 PPG; Fluminense away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fluminense won 4-0 on 28 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Juventude have gone 3W 1D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Fluminense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Juventude
3
Draws
2
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Juventude and Fluminense?
From 8 meetings on record, Juventude have won 3, Fluminense have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Juventude and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2025, when Fluminense 1-0 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Juventude and Fluminense?
Juventude have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Juventude see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Juventude 47%, Fluminense 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 33% for Juventude and 33% for Fluminense.
On the defensive side: Juventude keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Fluminense in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Juventude home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Juventude play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Juventude's recent matches and 40% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Juventude vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 33% of Juventude's recent games and 33% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Juventude edge out Fluminense 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Juventude beat Fluminense 1-0 at Estádio Alfredo Jaconi, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Juventude 1.05 xG and Fluminense 0.71 xG, a combined 1.76. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Juventude attack 0.88 / defence 1.08 against Fluminense attack 0.70 / defence 1.22, drawn from 31/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Juventude 43% | Draw 33% | Fluminense 24%, with Juventude to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Juventude 39%, Fluminense 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Juventude's trading profile (31 games, 15 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not.
Fluminense's trading profile (31 games, 15 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Juventude 1.16 PPG, Fluminense 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Juventude win broke the near-deadlock. Juventude (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Fluminense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.