Gremio 0-0 Remo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Gremio at 73%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gremio vs Remo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Remo make the trip to Arena do Grêmio to face Gremio in Serie A, Regular Season - 10. The match kicks off on Sunday 5 April 2026 at 23:30 UTC.
Form
Gremio (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W L W L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.70 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Gremio's home record at Arena do Grêmio: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 2.37 xG and Remo 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 1.173 / defence 1.024 | Remo attack 0.706 / defence 1.322. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.050. Remo bring a strong defensive rating of 1.322 — this is suppressing Gremio's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 47 Gremio games / 9 Remo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 73% | Draw 17% | Remo 10%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 1.37 | Draw 5.88 | Remo 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Gremio (73%) — a 63pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Gremio are the pick at 73% — clear model lean.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Remo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Apr 2026, 23:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 73% | Draw 17% | Remo 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 48% | xG Gremio 2.37 / Remo 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 1.173 / def 1.024 | Remo attack 0.706 / def 1.322 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Gremio (73%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.37
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Remo xG
48%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Remo kick off?
Gremio vs Remo kicked off at 23:30 on Sunday 5 April 2026 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Remo?
Gremio 0 - 0 Remo.
Where is Gremio vs Remo being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Remo part of?
Gremio vs Remo is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Remo?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 73% chance of winning, Remo a 10% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw — making Gremio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Remo?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Gremio and Remo will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Remo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Remo?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gremio and Remo in?
Gremio (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Gremio home split: 1.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | CS 3.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Gremio's attack rating (1.17) and Remo's defence rating (1.32), the model arrives at 2.37 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Remo's attack (0.71x) against Gremio's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.76.
These ratings are built from 47/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.3%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.7%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gremio Win
73%
1.37
17%
6.01
10%
9.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.4%
Home win
3 – 0
9.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.37
Gremio xG
Total xG
3.12
0.76
Remo xG
1.37
73%
Home win
6.01
17%
Draw
9.82
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.08
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
9%
10.64
Win to Nil
34%
2.92
1%
104.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 3.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.4 | 7.9 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.7 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.7 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Remo?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.3%.
How many goals are Gremio and Remo expected to score?
The model projects 2.37 expected goals for Gremio and 0.76 for Remo, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Remo?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 73%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
Last 0 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Pre-Season
Remo
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 1 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2026 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 1 Meetings
0
Gremio
1
Draws
0
Remo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Remo?
From 1 meetings on record, Gremio have won 0, Remo have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Remo last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Gremio 0-0 Remo.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Remo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Stalemate at Gremio's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 10, as Gremio and Remo drew 0-0 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 2.37 xG and Remo 0.76 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gremio fell 2.4 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 1.17 / defence 1.02 against Remo attack 0.71 / defence 1.32, drawn from 47/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 73% | Draw 17% | Remo 10%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 73%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.