Gremio 0-0 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Palmeiras (45%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Gremio face Palmeiras.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Gremio host Palmeiras at Arena do Grêmio in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 20 September 2026 at 14:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Gremio — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gremio's form when playing at home: 5W 2D 3L across 10 games at Arena do Grêmio this term (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Gremio are significantly better at Arena do Grêmio than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Palmeiras stand at 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D D W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Palmeiras, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Palmeiras have posted 5W 4D 1L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour Palmeiras — 1.10 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.80 vs 0.70). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
H2H Record
Palmeiras have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 6 of the last 9 encounters against Gremio's 2 victories.
The 9 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 3 Apr 2026, ended 1–2 with Palmeiras winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Palmeiras have won 6 of 9 previous encounters, and at 2.9 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
In-Play Data
Gremio trading profile (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Palmeiras trading profile (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 57% versus Palmeiras 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Gremio 43% | Palmeiras 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.15 xG and Palmeiras 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 1.039 / defence 1.099 | Palmeiras attack 1.238 / defence 0.762. League average goals — home 1.454 / away 1.168. Palmeiras's defence strength of 0.762 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.238 — the away xG of 1.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 65 Gremio games / 65 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 25% | Draw 29% | Palmeiras 45%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 4.00 | Draw 3.45 | Palmeiras 2.22. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 52% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.74. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 52%/48% — the total xG of 2.74 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Palmeiras are the pick at 45% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.74 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 52% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 2.9 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Gremio 60% | Palmeiras 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Sep 2026, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 25% | Draw 29% | Palmeiras 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 52% | BTTS 57% | xG Gremio 1.15 / Palmeiras 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 1.039 / def 1.099 | Palmeiras attack 1.238 / def 0.762 | league avg home 1.454 / away 1.168 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.15
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Palmeiras xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
52%
Over 2.5
30%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Palmeiras kick off?
Gremio vs Palmeiras kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 20 September 2026 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Palmeiras?
Gremio 0 - 0 Palmeiras.
Where is Gremio vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Palmeiras part of?
Gremio vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 25% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 45% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Gremio and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 52%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Palmeiras?
Record (9 meetings): Gremio 2W | Draws 1 | Palmeiras 6W.
What form are Gremio and Palmeiras in?
Gremio (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. Palmeiras (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Gremio's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Palmeiras's defensive record (0.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.15. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Gremio's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
25%
3.92
29%
3.43
45%
2.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.3%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.15
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.74
1.59
Palmeiras xG
3.92
25%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.20
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
52%
Over 2.5
1.92
48%
Under 2.5
2.08
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.77
43%
BTTS No
2.30
Clean Sheet
20%
4.90
32%
3.16
Win to Nil
5%
19.25
14%
6.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.3 | 8.2 | 4.3 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.4 | 11.8 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.6 | 2.1 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Gremio and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.15 expected goals for Gremio and 1.59 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.74.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Gremio come into this having played 65 games, going 20W 17D 28L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Palmeiras sit at 2.03 PPG from 65 outings (39W 15D 11L), a run that reads L-W-D-D-W across their last five. The sample for Palmeiras is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Palmeiras carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.85 PPG clear of Gremio — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Gremio's home form reads 16W 8D 8L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.75 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.18 PPG overall — Gremio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Palmeiras have taken 1.81 points per game from 32 outings (17W 7D 8L).
Goals in Recent Form
Gremio are averaging 1.18 goals scored and 1.35 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.74 scored and 0.83 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 65 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Blended
Palmeiras
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 20W 17D 28L in their last 65 games (1.18 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 39W 15D 11L in their last 65 (2.03 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (1.81 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 1.75 PPG; Palmeiras away: 1.81 PPG.
Have Gremio or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gremio have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 20 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 May 2023, when Palmeiras won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Gremio's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Gremio
2
Draws
6
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Palmeiras?
From 10 meetings on record, Gremio have won 2, Palmeiras have won 6, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 20 September 2026, when Gremio 0-0 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Palmeiras are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 59%, Palmeiras 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Gremio) and 59% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Palmeiras in 34%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Palmeiras?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 59% of Gremio's games and 59% of Palmeiras's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gremio vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Gremio's recent games and 59% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and Palmeiras tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, Palmeiras in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Gremio's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gremio and Palmeiras finished level at 0-0 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.15 xG and Palmeiras 1.59 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Gremio fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Palmeiras landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 1.04 / defence 1.10 against Palmeiras attack 1.24 / defence 0.76, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 25% | Draw 29% | Palmeiras 45%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 43%, Palmeiras 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Palmeiras's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.18. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Gremio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.44 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.66 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.