Gremio 1-2 Fluminense – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Gremio at 54% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Gremio vs Fluminense encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Gremio and Fluminense meet at Arena do Grêmio in Serie A, Regular Season - 37. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 3 December 2025 at 00:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gremio have collected 1.30 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 1D 5L. Last five: L D W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Gremio's home record at Arena do Grêmio: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game.
Fluminense's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Fluminense have posted 1W 5D 4L from 10 away outings — 0.80 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Fluminense arrive in superior form — a 0.70 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.30) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Head-to-Head
Historically, Gremio have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 7 meetings, with Fluminense managing just 1 victories and 1 draws shared.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Aug 2025, ended 0–1 with Fluminense winning.
The historical record gives Gremio a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 7 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Gremio — key trading statistics (74 games, 37 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 49% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 40% of games (home games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
Fluminense — key trading statistics (74 games, 37 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 53% versus Fluminense 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gremio 42% | Fluminense 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 1.43 xG and Fluminense 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 1.033 / defence 0.910 | Fluminense attack 0.816 / defence 0.934. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.002. Data: 74 Gremio games / 74 Fluminense games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 54% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 19%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 1.85 | Draw 3.70 | Fluminense 5.26. Gremio hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.18. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.18 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Gremio dominate the H2H record, yet Fluminense are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Gremio at 54% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Fluminense (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Gremio if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.18 combined xG gives a 37% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 40%. Form rates corroborate: Gremio 40% | Fluminense 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Fluminense | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 Dec 2025, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 54% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 40% | xG Gremio 1.43 / Fluminense 0.74 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 1.033 / def 0.910 | Fluminense attack 0.816 / def 0.934 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.002 • Poisson stance: Gremio (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
0.74
Fluminense xG
40%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Fluminense kick off?
Gremio vs Fluminense kicked off at 00:30 on Wednesday 3 December 2025 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Fluminense?
Gremio 1 - 2 Fluminense.
Where is Gremio vs Fluminense being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Fluminense part of?
Gremio vs Fluminense is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Fluminense?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 54% chance of winning, Fluminense a 19% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Gremio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Fluminense?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Gremio and Fluminense will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Fluminense have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Fluminense?
Record (7 meetings): Gremio 5W | Draws 1 | Fluminense 1W.
What form are Gremio and Fluminense in?
Gremio (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-D-W-L-W. Fluminense (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gremio's attacking strength (1.03x league average) is weighed against Fluminense's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Fluminense's attack (0.82x) against Gremio's defence (0.91x) — and the away total comes out at 0.74.
These ratings are built from 74/74 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 14.7%. Close behind: 1-1 (13.7%), 0-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Gremio Win
54%
1.87
27%
3.70
19%
5.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Gremio xG
Total xG
2.18
0.74
Fluminense xG
1.87
54%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
5.15
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
48%
2.10
24%
4.20
Win to Nil
25%
3.93
5%
21.59
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.3 | 8.4 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.2 | 12.1 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 8.7 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Fluminense?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Gremio and Fluminense expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Gremio and 0.74 for Fluminense, a combined total of 2.18.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Fluminense?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 74 outings, Gremio have picked up 1.23 PPG on a 24W 19D 31L record — L-D-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Fluminense's form line: 29W 17D 28L from 74 games, 1.41 PPG, last five W-D-W-D-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.23 PPG for Gremio against 1.41 for Fluminense. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Gremio have posted 1.65 PPG from 37 outings (18W 7D 12L). That's noticeably better than their 1.23 PPG overall — Gremio are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Fluminense have gone 8W 8D 21L from 37 away games — 0.86 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.41 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Fluminense's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Gremio come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gremio are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.32 conceded per game recently; Fluminense are on 1.07 scored and 1.04 conceded.
Defensively: Fluminense in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 74 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Current Season
Fluminense
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Fluminense in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 24W 19D 31L in their last 74 games (1.23 PPG), while Fluminense have gone 29W 17D 28L in their last 74 (1.41 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Fluminense away?
Gremio's home record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 1.65 PPG; Fluminense away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Gremio or Fluminense been keeping clean sheets recently?
Gremio have kept a clean sheet in 19% of their recent games, Fluminense in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Gremio have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Fluminense — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Gremio
2
Draws
3
Fluminense
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Fluminense?
From 10 meetings on record, Gremio have won 5, Fluminense have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Fluminense last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Gremio 1-1 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Fluminense?
Gremio have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 49%, Fluminense 35% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 40% (Gremio) and 30% (Fluminense).
On the defensive side: Gremio have failed to score in 27% of games; Fluminense in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Fluminense away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Fluminense?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 49% of Gremio's recent matches and 35% of Fluminense's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Gremio vs Fluminense usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 40% of Gremio's recent games and 30% of Fluminense's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and Fluminense tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Fluminense in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Fluminense defy the odds to beat Gremio 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Gremio 1-2 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 1.43 xG and Fluminense 0.74 xG, a combined 2.18. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Fluminense outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 1.03 / defence 0.91 against Fluminense attack 0.82 / defence 0.93, drawn from 74/74 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 54% | Draw 27% | Fluminense 19%, with Gremio to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Fluminense win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 42%, Fluminense 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (74 games, 37 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Fluminense's trading profile (74 games, 37 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gremio 1.23 PPG, Fluminense 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock. Gremio (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Fluminense (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.