Gremio 2-1 Chapecoense-sc – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Chapecoense-sc at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Arena do Grêmio plays host to Gremio versus Chapecoense-sc in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Tuesday 10 August 2021 at 00:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Gremio have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 4D 5L. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Gremio's form when playing at home: 0W 4D 2L across 6 games at Arena do Grêmio this term (0.67 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game.
Chapecoense-sc's overall Serie A record this term: 0W 2D 8L from 10 games (0.20 PPG). Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Chapecoense-sc, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Chapecoense-sc's form when playing away from home: 0W 3D 4L across 7 road games this term (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 1.14 goals scored and 1.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.70 for Gremio, 0.20 for Chapecoense-sc — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading & In-Play
Gremio — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 67% of games.
Chapecoense-sc — key trading statistics (12 games, 6 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 83% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Gremio 25% versus Chapecoense-sc 58%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Gremio 17% | Chapecoense-sc 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Gremio 0.82 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Gremio attack 0.671 / defence 1.017 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.878 / defence 1.437. League average goals — home 0.853 / away 1.074. Gremio's attack strength of 0.671 is below the league average — the 0.82 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Chapecoense-sc bring a strong defensive rating of 1.437 — this is suppressing Gremio's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 12 Gremio games / 14 Chapecoense-sc games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Gremio 30% | Draw 33% | Chapecoense-sc 37%. Fair-value odds: Gremio 3.33 | Draw 3.03 | Chapecoense-sc 2.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 26% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.78. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 74% probability — total xG of 1.78 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Gremio's lower xG of 0.82 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Chapecoense-sc are the pick at 37% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 33% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Chapecoense-sc if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.78 combined xG gives a 26% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 35%. Form rates are neutral: Gremio 33% | Chapecoense-sc 86%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Arena do Grêmio • Kick-off: Tuesday 10 Aug 2021, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Gremio 30% | Draw 33% | Chapecoense-sc 37% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 26% | BTTS 35% | xG Gremio 0.82 / Chapecoense-sc 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: Gremio attack 0.671 / def 1.017 | Chapecoense-sc attack 0.878 / def 1.437 | league avg home 0.853 / away 1.074 • Poisson stance: Chapecoense-sc (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.82
Gremio xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Chapecoense-sc xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
26%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc kick off?
Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc kicked off at 00:00 on Tuesday 10 August 2021 at Arena do Grêmio.
What was the final score in Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc?
Gremio 2 - 1 Chapecoense-sc.
Where is Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc being played?
The match is being played at Arena do Grêmio.
What competition is Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc part of?
Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our statistical model gives Gremio a 30% chance of winning, Chapecoense-sc a 37% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Chapecoense-sc the favourite.
Will both teams score in Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Gremio and Chapecoense-sc will score (BTTS).
Will Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 26%.
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Chapecoense-sc?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Gremio and Chapecoense-sc in?
Gremio (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-L. Chapecoense-sc (all comps): 0W-2D-8L in 10 | 0.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Gremio's attacking strength (0.67x league average) is weighed against Chapecoense-sc's defensive record (1.44x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.82. Flip it around — Chapecoense-sc's attack (0.88x) against Gremio's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 12/14 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 18.6%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.0%), 0-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 48% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Chapecoense-sc Win
30%
3.36
33%
3.03
37%
2.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.2%
Away win
1 – 0
13.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.82
Gremio xG
Total xG
1.78
0.96
Chapecoense-sc xG
3.36
30%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.68
37%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
26%
Over 2.5
3.85
74%
Under 2.5
1.35
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.89
65%
BTTS No
1.53
Clean Sheet
38%
2.61
44%
2.28
Win to Nil
11%
8.77
16%
6.10
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.8 | 16.2 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.8 | 13.3 | 6.4 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.6%.
How many goals are Gremio and Chapecoense-sc expected to score?
The model projects 0.82 expected goals for Gremio and 0.96 for Chapecoense-sc, a combined total of 1.78.
How confident is the prediction model for Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Gremio's recent record stands at 1W 4D 7L from 12 games, a 0.58 PPG return, with L-D-W-D-L in the last five. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Chapecoense-sc, meanwhile, have gone 0W 4D 8L across 12 games — 0.33 PPG, with L-L-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for Chapecoense-sc is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.58 PPG for Gremio against 0.33 for Chapecoense-sc. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Gremio have managed 0W 4D 2L from 6 games — 0.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Chapecoense-sc's away record stands at 0W 3D 3L across 6 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Gremio are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Chapecoense-sc are on 0.83 scored and 1.58 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gremio have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Last 12 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Gremio
Blended
Chapecoense-sc
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Gremio and Chapecoense-sc in coming into this match?
Gremio have gone 1W 4D 7L in their last 12 games (0.58 PPG), while Chapecoense-sc have gone 0W 4D 8L in their last 12 (0.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Gremio at home or Chapecoense-sc away?
Gremio's home record (0.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Gremio at home: 0.67 PPG; Chapecoense-sc away: 0.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 3 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 16 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Gremio
1
Draws
0
Chapecoense-sc
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Gremio and Chapecoense-sc?
From 3 meetings on record, Gremio have won 2, Chapecoense-sc have won 0, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Gremio and Chapecoense-sc last play each other?
They last met on 16 March 2026, when Chapecoense-sc 1-1 Gremio.
Who has won more matches between Gremio and Chapecoense-sc?
Gremio have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Gremio see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Chapecoense-sc are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Gremio 33%, Chapecoense-sc 83% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 17% for Gremio and 50% for Chapecoense-sc.
On the defensive side: Gremio keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Gremio have failed to score in 67% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Gremio home games / Chapecoense-sc away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Gremio play Chapecoense-sc?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 33% of Gremio's games and 83% of Chapecoense-sc's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Gremio vs Chapecoense-sc usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Gremio's recent games and 50% of Chapecoense-sc's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Gremio and Chapecoense-sc tend to score early?
Gremio have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Chapecoense-sc in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gremio defy the odds to beat Chapecoense-sc 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gremio beat Chapecoense-sc 2-1 at Arena do Grêmio, Regular Season - 15, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Gremio 0.82 xG and Chapecoense-sc 0.96 xG, a combined 1.78. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Gremio beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Gremio attack 0.67 / defence 1.02 against Chapecoense-sc attack 0.88 / defence 1.44, drawn from 12/14 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Gremio 30% | Draw 33% | Chapecoense-sc 37%, with Chapecoense-sc to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Gremio win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 26%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 29% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Gremio 17%, Chapecoense-sc 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Gremio's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did.
Chapecoense-sc's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Gremio 0.58 PPG, Chapecoense-sc 0.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gremio win broke the near-deadlock. Gremio (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.50 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.