Fortaleza EC 0-1 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Fortaleza EC at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Fortaleza EC host Cuiaba at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A, Regular Season - 1. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 10 April 2022 at 22:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Fortaleza EC — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Fortaleza EC's home record at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A appearances (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Fortaleza EC are significantly better at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cuiaba stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Cuiaba away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.00 PPG (Fortaleza EC) versus 1.20 (Cuiaba). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Fortaleza EC, 1 for Cuiaba and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 0.5 per contest from 2 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2021, ended 0–1 with Cuiaba winning.
With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Fortaleza EC in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Cuiaba in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fortaleza EC 40% versus Cuiaba 42%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fortaleza EC 45% | Cuiaba 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fortaleza EC 1.18 xG and Cuiaba 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fortaleza EC attack 0.972 / defence 1.039 | Cuiaba attack 0.970 / defence 0.921. League average goals — home 1.321 / away 0.914. Data: 38 Fortaleza EC games / 38 Cuiaba games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 41% | Draw 32% | Cuiaba 27%. Fair-value odds: Fortaleza EC 2.44 | Draw 3.12 | Cuiaba 3.70. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fortaleza EC at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fortaleza EC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.10 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fortaleza EC 20% | Cuiaba 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Sunday 10 Apr 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fortaleza EC 41% | Draw 32% | Cuiaba 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Fortaleza EC 1.18 / Cuiaba 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Fortaleza EC attack 0.972 / def 1.039 | Cuiaba attack 0.970 / def 0.921 | league avg home 1.321 / away 0.914 • Poisson stance: Fortaleza EC (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.18
Fortaleza EC xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Cuiaba xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba kick off?
Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 10 April 2022 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba?
Fortaleza EC 0 - 1 Cuiaba.
Where is Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba part of?
Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Fortaleza EC a 41% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Fortaleza EC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba?
Record (2 meetings): Fortaleza EC 0W | Draws 1 | Cuiaba 1W.
What form are Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba in?
Fortaleza EC (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-L-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Fortaleza EC's attack rating (0.97) and Cuiaba's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.18 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Cuiaba's attack versus Fortaleza EC's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-0 (12.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fortaleza EC Win
41%
2.46
32%
3.12
27%
3.67
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
12.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.18
Fortaleza EC xG
Total xG
2.10
0.92
Cuiaba xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.12
32%
Draw
3.67
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
40%
2.51
31%
3.26
Win to Nil
16%
6.19
8%
11.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.2 | 11.2 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.4 | 13.3 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 7.9 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.18 expected goals for Fortaleza EC and 0.92 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Fortaleza EC have picked up 1.53 PPG on a 17W 7D 14L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Cuiaba's form line: 10W 17D 11L from 38 games, 1.24 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fortaleza EC on 1.53 PPG, Cuiaba on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Fortaleza EC have posted 1.95 PPG from 19 outings (11W 4D 4L). That's noticeably better than their 1.53 PPG overall — Fortaleza EC are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Cuiaba have gone 3W 11D 5L from 19 away games — 1.05 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fortaleza EC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fortaleza EC are averaging 1.16 goals scored and 1.18 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.89 scored and 0.97 conceded.
Defensively: Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their games; Cuiaba in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fortaleza EC
Current Season
Cuiaba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Fortaleza EC have gone 17W 7D 14L in their last 38 games (1.53 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 10W 17D 11L in their last 38 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fortaleza EC at home or Cuiaba away?
Fortaleza EC's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fortaleza EC at home: 1.95 PPG; Cuiaba away: 1.05 PPG.
Have Fortaleza EC or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fortaleza EC have kept a clean sheet in 37% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 29 September 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Jun 2024, when Cuiaba won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fortaleza EC's record when hosting Cuiaba specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fortaleza EC
1
Draws
5
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba?
From 8 meetings on record, Fortaleza EC have won 2, Cuiaba have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 29 September 2024, when Fortaleza EC 1-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Fortaleza EC and Cuiaba?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fortaleza EC see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fortaleza EC 32%, Cuiaba 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Fortaleza EC) and 32% (Cuiaba).
On the defensive side: Fortaleza EC keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches; Cuiaba in 42%; Fortaleza EC have failed to score in 26% of games; Cuiaba in 53%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fortaleza EC home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fortaleza EC play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 32% of Fortaleza EC's recent matches and 42% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fortaleza EC vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Fortaleza EC's recent games and 32% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Cuiaba defy the odds to beat Fortaleza EC 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba beat Fortaleza EC 0-1 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 1, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fortaleza EC 1.18 xG and Cuiaba 0.92 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fortaleza EC fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fortaleza EC attack 0.97 / defence 1.04 against Cuiaba attack 0.97 / defence 0.92, drawn from 38/38 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fortaleza EC 41% | Draw 32% | Cuiaba 27%, with Fortaleza EC to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual Cuiaba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fortaleza EC 45%, Cuiaba 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fortaleza EC's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 32% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cuiaba's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fortaleza EC 1.53 PPG, Cuiaba 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cuiaba win broke the near-deadlock. Fortaleza EC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward. Cuiaba (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.