Fluminense 2-1 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Fluminense (52%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Fluminense face RB Bragantino.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
RB Bragantino make the trip to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to face Fluminense in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Sunday 4 June 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fluminense have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Fluminense at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
RB Bragantino's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 0D 7L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 2.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.50 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie A this season, RB Bragantino have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form ledger tips toward Fluminense. A 1.00 PPG lead over RB Bragantino (1.90 vs 0.90) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Fluminense have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, RB Bragantino in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Fluminense have had the better of this match-up — 3 wins from 3 meetings, with RB Bragantino managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Nov 2022, ended 1–0 with Fluminense winning.
The historical record gives Fluminense a meaningful edge here — 3 wins from 3 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading Data
Fluminense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
RB Bragantino goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 42% versus RB Bragantino 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Fluminense 42% | RB Bragantino 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.71 xG and RB Bragantino 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.107 / defence 0.811 | RB Bragantino attack 1.129 / defence 1.114. League average goals — home 1.387 / away 1.071. Data: 46 Fluminense games / 46 RB Bragantino games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 52% | Draw 29% | RB Bragantino 19%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 1.92 | Draw 3.45 | RB Bragantino 5.26. Fluminense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.69. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.69 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Fluminense are the pick at 52% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fluminense if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.69 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 54% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Fluminense 60% | RB Bragantino 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Jun 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 52% | Draw 29% | RB Bragantino 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Fluminense 1.71 / RB Bragantino 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.107 / def 0.811 | RB Bragantino attack 1.129 / def 1.114 | league avg home 1.387 / away 1.071 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.71
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.98
RB Bragantino xG
54%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Fluminense vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 20:00 on Sunday 4 June 2023 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs RB Bragantino?
Fluminense 2 - 1 RB Bragantino.
Where is Fluminense vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs RB Bragantino part of?
Fluminense vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 52% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 19% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Fluminense and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and RB Bragantino?
Record (3 meetings): Fluminense 3W | Draws 0 | RB Bragantino 0W.
What form are Fluminense and RB Bragantino in?
Fluminense (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-W. RB Bragantino (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fluminense's attacking strength (1.11x league average) is weighed against RB Bragantino's defensive record (1.11x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.71. Flip it around — RB Bragantino's attack (1.13x) against Fluminense's defence (0.81x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 46/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 12.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.1%), 2-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
52%
1.93
29%
3.43
19%
5.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.71
Fluminense xG
Total xG
2.69
0.98
RB Bragantino xG
1.93
52%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
5.27
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.86
46%
BTTS No
2.16
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
18%
5.53
Win to Nil
19%
5.13
3%
29.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.7 | 3.3 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 11.4 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.9 | 9.7 | 4.8 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.9%.
How many goals are Fluminense and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.71 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.98 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.69.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Fluminense's recent record stands at 36W 16D 24L from 76 games, a 1.63 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
RB Bragantino, meanwhile, have gone 25W 25D 26L across 76 games — 1.32 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.63 PPG for Fluminense against 1.32 for RB Bragantino. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Fluminense have managed 23W 8D 7L from 38 games — 2.03 PPG in front of their own supporters.
RB Bragantino's away record stands at 10W 11D 17L across 38 trips, a 1.08 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fluminense are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.37 scored and 1.38 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Current Season
RB Bragantino
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 36W 16D 24L in their last 76 games (1.63 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 25W 25D 26L in their last 76 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or RB Bragantino away?
Fluminense's home record (2.03 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 2.03 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 1.08 PPG.
Have Fluminense or RB Bragantino been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, RB Bragantino in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fluminense have gone 4W 2D 0L from 6 meetings on their own ground against RB Bragantino — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Fluminense
2
Draws
2
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and RB Bragantino?
From 10 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 6, RB Bragantino have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 17 July 2026, when Fluminense 1-1 RB Bragantino.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and RB Bragantino?
Fluminense have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 47%, RB Bragantino 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Fluminense) and 58% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; RB Bragantino in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play RB Bragantino?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 47% of Fluminense's recent matches and 58% of RB Bragantino's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Fluminense's recent games and 58% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Fluminense edge out RB Bragantino 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat RB Bragantino 2-1 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.71 xG and RB Bragantino 0.98 xG, a combined 2.69. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.11 / defence 0.81 against RB Bragantino attack 1.13 / defence 1.11, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 52% | Draw 29% | RB Bragantino 19%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 42%, RB Bragantino 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.63 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Fluminense win broke the near-deadlock.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.