Fluminense 4-0 Juventude – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fluminense at 71% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fluminense vs Juventude encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Juventude make the trip to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to face Fluminense in Serie A, Regular Season - 28. The match kicks off on Wednesday 28 September 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Fluminense have collected 2.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 2D 2L. Last five: W D L W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Fluminense have posted 8W 1D 1L at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho — 2.50 PPG. They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Fluminense are significantly better at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho than their overall form suggests.
Juventude (all games): 1W 3D 6L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 0.60 points per game. Last five: D L D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Juventude, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Juventude's away record: 0W 3D 7L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Fluminense. A 1.40 PPG lead over Juventude (2.00 vs 0.60) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Fluminense lead 0W to 2W over the last 3 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.3 per game from 3 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 5 Jun 2022, ended 0–1 with Juventude winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Data
Fluminense goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Juventude goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (65 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 45% versus Juventude 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fluminense 40% | Juventude 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 2.31 xG and Juventude 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 1.349 / defence 1.098 | Juventude attack 0.835 / defence 1.324. League average goals — home 1.293 / away 0.899. Fluminense carry an above-average attack strength of 1.349 — their λ of 2.31 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Juventude bring a strong defensive rating of 1.324 — this is suppressing Fluminense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 65 Fluminense games / 65 Juventude games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 71% | Draw 18% | Juventude 12%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 1.41 | Draw 5.56 | Juventude 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Fluminense (71%) — a 59pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Juventude lead the H2H ledger, but Fluminense carry stronger current form — do not let history alone dictate your assessment.
Poisson rates Fluminense as the most likely outcome at 71% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 18% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Fluminense 60% | Juventude 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Juventude | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 28 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Wednesday 28 Sep 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 71% | Draw 18% | Juventude 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 51% | xG Fluminense 2.31 / Juventude 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 1.349 / def 1.098 | Juventude attack 0.835 / def 1.324 | league avg home 1.293 / away 0.899 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (71%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.31
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Juventude xG
51%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Juventude kick off?
Fluminense vs Juventude kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 28 September 2022 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Juventude?
Fluminense 4 - 0 Juventude.
Where is Fluminense vs Juventude being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Juventude part of?
Fluminense vs Juventude is a Regular Season - 28 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Juventude?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 71% chance of winning, Juventude a 12% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Juventude?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Fluminense and Juventude will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Juventude have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Juventude?
Record (3 meetings): Fluminense 0W | Draws 1 | Juventude 2W.
What form are Fluminense and Juventude in?
Fluminense (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-D-L-W-W. Juventude (all comps): 1W-3D-6L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-L-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Fluminense's attack at 1.35x the league average against Juventude's defence at 1.32x — combine the two and it projects 2.31 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Juventude's attack (0.83x) against Fluminense's defence (1.10x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 65/65 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-0 carries the highest individual probability at 11.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
71%
1.41
18%
5.70
12%
8.52
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
11.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.31
Fluminense xG
Total xG
3.13
0.82
Juventude xG
1.41
71%
Home win
5.70
18%
Draw
8.52
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.98
49%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
44%
2.28
10%
10.06
Win to Nil
31%
3.23
1%
85.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 3.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 8.3 | 3.4 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 11.6 | 9.6 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 8.9 | 7.4 | 3.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 5.2 | 4.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.4 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Juventude?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.6%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Juventude expected to score?
The model projects 2.31 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.82 for Juventude, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Juventude?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 71%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Fluminense come into this having played 65 games, going 29W 15D 21L for 1.57 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-L-W-W. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Juventude sit at 1.00 PPG from 65 outings (14W 23D 28L), a run that reads D-L-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Juventude is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Fluminense carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Juventude — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
Fluminense's home form reads 19W 7D 6L across 32 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.57 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, Juventude have taken 0.62 points per game from 32 outings (3W 11D 18L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Fluminense are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Juventude are on 0.88 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 65 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Blended
Juventude
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Juventude in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 29W 15D 21L in their last 65 games (1.57 PPG), while Juventude have gone 14W 23D 28L in their last 65 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Juventude away?
Fluminense's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 2.00 PPG; Juventude away: 0.62 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Juventude been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Juventude in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 17 October 2025, roughly 9 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Fluminense won 4-0 on 28 Sep 2022, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fluminense have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Juventude — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Fluminense
3
Draws
3
Juventude
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Juventude?
From 8 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 2, Juventude have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Juventude last play each other?
They last met on 17 October 2025, when Fluminense 1-0 Juventude.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Juventude?
Juventude have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Juventude see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 50%, Juventude 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Fluminense) and 44% (Juventude).
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Juventude in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Juventude away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Juventude?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Fluminense's recent matches and 59% of Juventude's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Juventude usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Fluminense's recent games and 44% of Juventude's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and Juventude tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, Juventude in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Fluminense run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Juventude.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense beat Juventude 4-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 28, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 2.31 xG and Juventude 0.82 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Fluminense beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Juventude landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 1.35 / defence 1.10 against Juventude attack 0.83 / defence 1.32, drawn from 65/65 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 71% | Draw 18% | Juventude 12%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 71%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 40%, Juventude 40%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (65 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.
Juventude's trading profile (65 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Fluminense arrived the stronger side — 1.57 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Fluminense (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.56 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line. Juventude (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.72 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.