Fluminense 0-1 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Fluminense at 43% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Fluminense vs Gremio encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Fluminense and Gremio meet at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho in Serie A, Regular Season - 12. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 18 July 2021 at 01:00 UTC.
Current Form
Fluminense's overall Serie A record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D L W D W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fluminense's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 1L across 5 games at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this term (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 3 clean sheets from 5 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
Gremio (all games): 0W 3D 6L across 9 Serie A outings this term — 0.33 points per game. Last five: D L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.44 per game is modest, conceding 1.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 22% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Gremio have posted 0W 0D 4L from 4 away outings — 0.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Fluminense's 1.60 PPG return is 1.27 points per game ahead of Gremio's 0.33 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
Trading & In-Play
Fluminense — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; when trailing at the break they recover to draw or win in 33% of cases; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Gremio — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 78% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 56% versus Gremio 22%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fluminense 33% | Gremio 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.11 xG and Gremio 0.78 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 0.819 / defence 1.197 | Gremio attack 0.628 / defence 1.489. League average goals — home 0.912 / away 1.042. Gremio bring a strong defensive rating of 1.489 — this is suppressing Fluminense's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 11 Fluminense games / 9 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 43% | Draw 31% | Gremio 26%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 2.33 | Draw 3.23 | Gremio 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Fluminense at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Fluminense if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 1.90 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 29% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 36% on No. Form rates corroborate: Fluminense 40% | Gremio 25% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Jul 2021, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 43% | Draw 31% | Gremio 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% | BTTS 36% | xG Fluminense 1.11 / Gremio 0.78 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 0.819 / def 1.197 | Gremio attack 0.628 / def 1.489 | league avg home 0.912 / away 1.042 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.78
Gremio xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Gremio kick off?
Fluminense vs Gremio kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 18 July 2021 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Gremio?
Fluminense 0 - 1 Gremio.
Where is Fluminense vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Gremio part of?
Fluminense vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 43% chance of winning, Gremio a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Fluminense and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Gremio?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Fluminense and Gremio in?
Fluminense (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-W-D-W. Gremio (all comps): 0W-3D-6L in 9 | 0.33 PPG | GF 0.44 / GA 1.33 | L5 D-L-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Fluminense's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Gremio's defensive record (1.49x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. Flip it around — Gremio's attack (0.63x) against Fluminense's defence (1.20x) — and the away total comes out at 0.78.
These ratings are built from 11/9 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.7%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.0%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
43%
2.32
31%
3.20
26%
3.91
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.7%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.0%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Fluminense xG
Total xG
1.90
0.78
Gremio xG
2.32
43%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
3.91
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.74
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
46%
2.19
33%
3.04
Win to Nil
20%
5.07
8%
11.88
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.0 | 11.8 | 4.6 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.7 | 13.1 | 5.1 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 9.3 | 7.3 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.7%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.78 for Gremio, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 9 outings, Fluminense have picked up 1.44 PPG on a 3W 4D 2L record — D-L-W-D-W across the most recent five. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Gremio's form line: 0W 3D 6L from 9 games, 0.33 PPG, last five D-L-L-L-D. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Fluminense are the form team by 1.11 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gremio.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Fluminense have posted 1.25 PPG from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
On the road, Gremio have gone 0W 0D 4L from 4 away games — 0.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Fluminense are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 0.44 scored and 1.33 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Gremio in 22%.
Last 9 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Blended
Gremio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Gremio in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 3W 4D 2L in their last 9 games (1.44 PPG), while Gremio have gone 0W 3D 6L in their last 9 (0.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Gremio away?
Fluminense's home record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 1.25 PPG; Gremio away: 0.00 PPG.
Have Fluminense or Gremio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Fluminense have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Gremio in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since July 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 26 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Fluminense have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Gremio — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Fluminense
2
Draws
5
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Gremio?
From 10 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 3, Gremio have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 26 July 2026, when Gremio 1-1 Fluminense.
Who has won more matches between Fluminense and Gremio?
Gremio have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Fluminense see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 50%, Gremio 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Fluminense and 25% for Gremio.
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Gremio in 75%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Gremio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Fluminense's recent matches and 25% of Gremio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Fluminense's recent games and 25% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and Gremio tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Gremio in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Gremio defy the odds to beat Fluminense 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gremio beat Fluminense 0-1 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.11 xG and Gremio 0.78 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Fluminense fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.82 / defence 1.20 against Gremio attack 0.63 / defence 1.49, drawn from 11/9 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 43% | Draw 31% | Gremio 26%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Gremio win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 56% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 28% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 33%, Gremio 22%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Gremio's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Fluminense arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 0.33. Form was overturned, with Gremio winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Gremio (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.