Fluminense 0-0 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Fluminense at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Fluminense vs Corinthians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 23 as Fluminense welcome Corinthians to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. Kick-off is set for Sunday 18 August 2024 at 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Fluminense have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Fluminense, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Fluminense at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Corinthians — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Corinthians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Corinthians's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Fluminense) versus 1.20 (Corinthians). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Fluminense, 3 for Corinthians and 1 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 28 Apr 2024, ended 0–3 with Corinthians winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Fluminense in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Corinthians in-play and half-time data (59 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 34% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Fluminense 42% versus Corinthians 52%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Fluminense 39% | Corinthians 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Fluminense 1.23 xG and Corinthians 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Fluminense attack 0.850 / defence 0.946 | Corinthians attack 0.712 / defence 1.119. League average goals — home 1.291 / away 1.060. Data: 59 Fluminense games / 60 Corinthians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Fluminense 48% | Draw 31% | Corinthians 21%. Fair-value odds: Fluminense 2.08 | Draw 3.23 | Corinthians 4.76. Fluminense hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (31%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.94. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.94 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Fluminense as the most likely outcome at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Fluminense offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.94 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Fluminense 60% | Corinthians 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Fluminense vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 18 Aug 2024, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Fluminense 48% | Draw 31% | Corinthians 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 36% | xG Fluminense 1.23 / Corinthians 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: Fluminense attack 0.850 / def 0.946 | Corinthians attack 0.712 / def 1.119 | league avg home 1.291 / away 1.060 • Poisson stance: Fluminense (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.23
Fluminense xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Corinthians xG
36%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Fluminense vs Corinthians kick off?
Fluminense vs Corinthians kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 18 August 2024 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Fluminense vs Corinthians?
Fluminense 0 - 0 Corinthians.
Where is Fluminense vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Fluminense vs Corinthians part of?
Fluminense vs Corinthians is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Fluminense vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Fluminense a 48% chance of winning, Corinthians a 21% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Fluminense the favourite.
Will both teams score in Fluminense vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Fluminense and Corinthians will score (BTTS).
Will Fluminense vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Corinthians?
Record (6 meetings): Fluminense 2W | Draws 1 | Corinthians 3W.
What form are Fluminense and Corinthians in?
Fluminense (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Corinthians (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-D-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Fluminense's attack at 0.85x the league average against Corinthians's defence at 1.12x — combine the two and it projects 1.23 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Corinthians's attack versus Fluminense's defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 59/60 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (16.0%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Fluminense Win
48%
2.08
31%
3.26
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.23
Fluminense xG
Total xG
1.94
0.71
Corinthians xG
2.08
48%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.74
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
29%
3.41
Win to Nil
24%
4.25
6%
16.07
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.3 | 10.3 | 3.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 12.6 | 4.5 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 7.7 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Fluminense vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.0%.
How many goals are Fluminense and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 1.23 expected goals for Fluminense and 0.71 for Corinthians, a combined total of 1.94.
How confident is the prediction model for Fluminense vs Corinthians?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Fluminense's recent record stands at 21W 13D 25L from 59 games, a 1.29 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Fluminense is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Corinthians, meanwhile, have gone 15W 23D 21L across 59 games — 1.15 PPG, with W-D-L-D-D in their last five. The sample for Corinthians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Fluminense on 1.29 PPG, Corinthians on 1.15. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Fluminense have managed 16W 8D 5L from 29 games — 1.93 PPG in front of their own supporters. That's noticeably better than their 1.29 PPG overall — Fluminense are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Corinthians's away record stands at 7W 6D 16L across 29 trips, a 0.93 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Fluminense come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Fluminense are averaging 1.14 goals scored and 1.24 conceded per game recently; Corinthians are on 1.10 scored and 1.29 conceded.
Last 59 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Fluminense
Blended
Corinthians
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Fluminense and Corinthians in coming into this match?
Fluminense have gone 21W 13D 25L in their last 59 games (1.29 PPG), while Corinthians have gone 15W 23D 21L in their last 59 (1.15 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Fluminense at home or Corinthians away?
Fluminense's home record (1.93 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Fluminense at home: 1.93 PPG; Corinthians away: 0.93 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 2 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 2 Jul 2022, when Fluminense won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Fluminense's record when hosting Corinthians specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Fluminense
2
Draws
4
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Fluminense and Corinthians?
From 10 meetings on record, Fluminense have won 4, Corinthians have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Fluminense and Corinthians last play each other?
They last met on 2 April 2026, when Fluminense 3-1 Corinthians.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Fluminense are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Fluminense 55%, Corinthians 34% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 41% (Fluminense) and 34% (Corinthians).
On the defensive side: Fluminense keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; Corinthians in 45%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Fluminense home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Fluminense play Corinthians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 55% of Fluminense's recent matches and 34% of Corinthians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Fluminense vs Corinthians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 41% of Fluminense's recent games and 34% of Corinthians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Fluminense and Corinthians tend to score early?
Fluminense have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Corinthians in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Fluminense's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Fluminense and Corinthians finished level at 0-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 23, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Fluminense 1.23 xG and Corinthians 0.71 xG, a combined 1.94. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Fluminense fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Fluminense attack 0.85 / defence 0.95 against Corinthians attack 0.71 / defence 1.12, drawn from 59/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Fluminense 48% | Draw 31% | Corinthians 21%, with Fluminense to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 37% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Fluminense 39%, Corinthians 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Fluminense's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Corinthians's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Fluminense 1.29 PPG, Corinthians 1.15 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Fluminense (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.52 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Corinthians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.86 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.38 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.