Flamengo 1-1 Vasco DA Gama – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Flamengo at 51% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Flamengo vs Vasco DA Gama encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vasco DA Gama make the trip to Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho to face Flamengo in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 September 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Form
Flamengo (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D L W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Flamengo's home record at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Serie A appearances (2.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Flamengo are significantly better at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho than their overall form suggests.
Vasco DA Gama's overall Serie A record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: D W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Vasco DA Gama, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Vasco DA Gama's away record: 3W 1D 6L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Vasco DA Gama are 0.60 PPG clear of Flamengo in recent Serie A fixtures (2.00 vs 1.40). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Head-to-Head
Across 3 previous meetings, Flamengo are the stronger side on paper — 3 victories to 0, with 0 draws in between.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.3 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2024, ended 6–1 with Flamengo winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Flamengo and goals. The home side's 3 wins from 3 meetings, combined with an average of 4.3 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading Data
Flamengo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 74% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Vasco DA Gama goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (62 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 55% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 58% versus Vasco DA Gama 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 55% | Vasco DA Gama 42%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.46 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.079 / defence 0.981 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.827 / defence 1.008. League average goals — home 1.339 / away 1.043. Data: 62 Flamengo games / 62 Vasco DA Gama games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 51% | Draw 27% | Vasco DA Gama 22%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.96 | Draw 3.70 | Vasco DA Gama 4.55. Flamengo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.30. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.30 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Flamengo dominate the H2H record, yet Vasco DA Gama are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 51% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Vasco DA Gama (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Flamengo if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.30 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 4.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates are neutral: Flamengo 80% | Vasco DA Gama 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Vasco DA Gama | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Sep 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 51% | Draw 27% | Vasco DA Gama 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 44% | xG Flamengo 1.46 / Vasco DA Gama 0.85 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.079 / def 0.981 | Vasco DA Gama attack 0.827 / def 1.008 | league avg home 1.339 / away 1.043 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.85
Vasco DA Gama xG
44%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Vasco DA Gama kick off?
Flamengo vs Vasco DA Gama kicked off at 22:30 on Sunday 15 September 2024 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Flamengo 1 - 1 Vasco DA Gama.
Where is Flamengo vs Vasco DA Gama being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Vasco DA Gama part of?
Flamengo vs Vasco DA Gama is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 51% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 22% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Flamengo and Vasco DA Gama will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Vasco DA Gama have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Vasco DA Gama?
Record (3 meetings): Flamengo 3W | Draws 0 | Vasco DA Gama 0W.
What form are Flamengo and Vasco DA Gama in?
Flamengo (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-W-L. Vasco DA Gama (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Flamengo's attack rating (1.08) and Vasco DA Gama's defence rating (1.01), the model arrives at 1.46 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Vasco DA Gama's attack (0.83x) against Flamengo's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.85.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.0%), 0-0 (11.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
51%
1.95
27%
3.70
22%
4.62
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.30
0.85
Vasco DA Gama xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
4.62
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.27
56%
BTTS No
1.79
Clean Sheet
43%
2.33
23%
4.29
Win to Nil
22%
4.54
5%
19.82
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.0 | 8.5 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.6 | 12.3 | 5.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.6 | 9.0 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.2 | 4.4 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Vasco DA Gama expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.85 for Vasco DA Gama, a combined total of 2.30.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Vasco DA Gama?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Flamengo's recent record stands at 32W 14D 16L from 62 games, a 1.77 PPG return, with L-D-L-W-L in the last five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Vasco DA Gama, meanwhile, have gone 22W 13D 27L across 62 games — 1.27 PPG, with D-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for Vasco DA Gama is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vasco DA Gama heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 18W 7D 6L from 31 games — 1.97 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vasco DA Gama's away record stands at 6W 8D 17L across 31 trips, a 0.84 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 1.27 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Vasco DA Gama's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Flamengo are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Vasco DA Gama are on 1.13 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 62 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Blended
Vasco DA Gama
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Vasco DA Gama in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 32W 14D 16L in their last 62 games (1.77 PPG), while Vasco DA Gama have gone 22W 13D 27L in their last 62 (1.27 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Vasco DA Gama away?
Flamengo's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 1.97 PPG; Vasco DA Gama away: 0.84 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Vasco DA Gama been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Vasco DA Gama in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 7 times that we have on record, stretching back to June 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Notable Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Flamengo won 1-6 on 2 Jun 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Flamengo have gone 1W 3D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Vasco DA Gama — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Flamengo
4
Draws
0
Vasco DA Gama
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Vasco DA Gama?
From 7 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 3, Vasco DA Gama have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Vasco DA Gama last play each other?
They last met on 3 May 2026, when Flamengo 2-2 Vasco DA Gama.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Vasco DA Gama?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 74% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time.
Vasco DA Gama see a goal before the break in 55% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 52%, Vasco DA Gama 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Flamengo) and 36% (Vasco DA Gama).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Vasco DA Gama in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Vasco DA Gama away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Vasco DA Gama?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of Flamengo's recent matches and 52% of Vasco DA Gama's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Vasco DA Gama usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Flamengo's recent games and 36% of Vasco DA Gama's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Vasco DA Gama tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 74% of their recent matches, Vasco DA Gama in 55% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Flamengo and Vasco DA Gama share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 26, as Flamengo and Vasco DA Gama drew 1-1 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.46 xG and Vasco DA Gama 0.85 xG, a combined 2.30. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.08 / defence 0.98 against Vasco DA Gama attack 0.83 / defence 1.01, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 51% | Draw 27% | Vasco DA Gama 22%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 51%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 55%, Vasco DA Gama 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (62 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here.
Vasco DA Gama's trading profile (62 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.77 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.