Flamengo 1-1 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Flamengo (41%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Flamengo face Cuiaba.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho plays host to Flamengo versus Cuiaba in Serie A, Regular Season - 15. Kick-off: Sunday 7 July 2024 at 00:00 UTC.
Form
Flamengo (all games): 7W 2D 1L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Flamengo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Flamengo have posted 7W 1D 2L at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho — 2.20 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Cuiaba's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 4D 3L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: W D D D L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cuiaba's form when playing away from home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form ledger tips toward Flamengo. A 1.00 PPG lead over Cuiaba (2.30 vs 1.30) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
H2H History
Across 6 previous meetings, Flamengo are the stronger side on paper — 4 victories to 1, with 1 draws in between.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 3 Dec 2023, ended 2–1 with Flamengo winning.
The historical record gives Flamengo a meaningful edge here — 4 wins from 6 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Flamengo half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games).
Cuiaba half-time and goal-timing data (52 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 54% versus Cuiaba 35%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 54% | Cuiaba 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.47 xG and Cuiaba 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.091 / defence 0.986 | Cuiaba attack 1.171 / defence 0.983. League average goals — home 1.374 / away 1.086. Data: 52 Flamengo games / 52 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 41% | Draw 29% | Cuiaba 31%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 2.44 | Draw 3.45 | Cuiaba 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Flamengo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.73 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Flamengo 60% | Cuiaba 40%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Jul 2024, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 41% | Draw 29% | Cuiaba 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 57% | xG Flamengo 1.47 / Cuiaba 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.091 / def 0.986 | Cuiaba attack 1.171 / def 0.983 | league avg home 1.374 / away 1.086 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
1.25
Cuiaba xG
57%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Cuiaba kick off?
Flamengo vs Cuiaba kicked off at 00:00 on Sunday 7 July 2024 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Cuiaba?
Flamengo 1 - 1 Cuiaba.
Where is Flamengo vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Cuiaba part of?
Flamengo vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 41% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 31% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Flamengo and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Cuiaba?
Record (6 meetings): Flamengo 4W | Draws 1 | Cuiaba 1W.
What form are Flamengo and Cuiaba in?
Flamengo (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Flamengo's attack rating (1.09) and Cuiaba's defence rating (0.98), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Cuiaba's attack (1.17x) against Flamengo's defence (0.99x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.7%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.9%), 0-0 (8.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
41%
2.46
29%
3.46
31%
3.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.6%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.73
1.25
Cuiaba xG
2.46
41%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
3.27
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.31
Clean Sheet
29%
3.50
23%
4.36
Win to Nil
12%
8.64
7%
14.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 8.2 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.6 | 12.1 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 8.9 | 5.6 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 4.4 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.6 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Flamengo and 1.25 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Cuiaba?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Flamengo's recent record stands at 28W 12D 12L from 52 games, a 1.85 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. The sample for Flamengo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cuiaba, meanwhile, have gone 17W 13D 22L across 52 games — 1.23 PPG, with W-D-D-D-L in their last five. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.62 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cuiaba heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 15W 5D 5L from 25 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cuiaba's away record stands at 10W 4D 11L across 25 trips, a 1.36 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Flamengo are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 1.08 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 1.06 scored and 1.12 conceded.
Last 52 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Blended
Cuiaba
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 28W 12D 12L in their last 52 games (1.85 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 17W 13D 22L in their last 52 (1.23 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Cuiaba away?
Flamengo's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 2.00 PPG; Cuiaba away: 1.36 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cuiaba won 3-0 on 7 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Flamengo have gone 2W 2D 0L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Cuiaba — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
5
Flamengo
2
Draws
1
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Cuiaba?
From 8 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 5, Cuiaba have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 20 November 2024, when Cuiaba 1-2 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Cuiaba?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Flamengo 44%, Cuiaba 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (Flamengo) and 36% (Cuiaba).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Cuiaba in 36%; Cuiaba in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Flamengo's recent matches and 32% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of Flamengo's recent games and 36% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Flamengo and Cuiaba share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 15, as Flamengo and Cuiaba drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.47 xG and Cuiaba 1.25 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.09 / defence 0.99 against Cuiaba attack 1.17 / defence 0.98, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 41% | Draw 29% | Cuiaba 31%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 54%, Cuiaba 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (52 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Cuiaba's trading profile (52 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.85 PPG against 1.23. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.