Flamengo 1-0 Corinthians – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 55%, yet other data sources diverge — this Flamengo vs Corinthians fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho plays host to Flamengo versus Corinthians in Serie A, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off: Thursday 18 November 2021 at 00:30 UTC.
Form
Flamengo (all games): 6W 3D 1L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 2.10 PPG. Last five: D W D W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Flamengo's form when playing at home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 games at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho this term (2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Corinthians have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Corinthians away from home this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.10 for Flamengo, 1.70 for Corinthians — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
Flamengo goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 45% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Corinthians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (31 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Flamengo 45% versus Corinthians 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Flamengo 58% | Corinthians 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Flamengo 1.46 xG and Corinthians 0.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Flamengo attack 1.278 / defence 0.945 | Corinthians attack 0.779 / defence 1.178. League average goals — home 0.969 / away 0.950. Flamengo carry an above-average attack strength of 1.278 — their λ of 1.46 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 31 Flamengo games / 32 Corinthians games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Flamengo 55% | Draw 27% | Corinthians 18%. Fair-value odds: Flamengo 1.82 | Draw 3.70 | Corinthians 5.56. The model has a clear lean to Flamengo (55%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Flamengo as the most likely outcome at 55% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.16 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 37% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Flamengo 20% | Corinthians 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Flamengo vs Corinthians | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho • Kick-off: Thursday 18 Nov 2021, 00:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Flamengo 55% | Draw 27% | Corinthians 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 39% | xG Flamengo 1.46 / Corinthians 0.70 • Poisson strength factors: Flamengo attack 1.278 / def 0.945 | Corinthians attack 0.779 / def 1.178 | league avg home 0.969 / away 0.950 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.46
Flamengo xG
Expected Goals
0.70
Corinthians xG
39%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Flamengo vs Corinthians kick off?
Flamengo vs Corinthians kicked off at 00:30 on Thursday 18 November 2021 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What was the final score in Flamengo vs Corinthians?
Flamengo 1 - 0 Corinthians.
Where is Flamengo vs Corinthians being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho.
What competition is Flamengo vs Corinthians part of?
Flamengo vs Corinthians is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Flamengo vs Corinthians?
Our statistical model gives Flamengo a 55% chance of winning, Corinthians a 18% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Flamengo vs Corinthians?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Flamengo and Corinthians will score (BTTS).
Will Flamengo vs Corinthians have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Corinthians?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Flamengo and Corinthians in?
Flamengo (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Corinthians (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Flamengo's attack at 1.28x the league average against Corinthians's defence at 1.18x — combine the two and it projects 1.46 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Corinthians's attack (0.78x) against Flamengo's defence (0.94x) — and the away total comes out at 0.70.
These ratings are built from 31/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (13.3%), 0-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
55%
1.81
27%
3.70
18%
5.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.8%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.3%
Home win
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.46
Flamengo xG
Total xG
2.16
0.70
Corinthians xG
1.81
55%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
5.65
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.58
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
50%
2.01
23%
4.31
Win to Nil
27%
3.65
4%
24.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 8.1 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.8 | 11.8 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.3 | 8.6 | 3.0 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.0 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Flamengo vs Corinthians?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Flamengo and Corinthians expected to score?
The model projects 1.46 expected goals for Flamengo and 0.70 for Corinthians, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Flamengo vs Corinthians?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Flamengo's recent record stands at 18W 6D 7L from 31 games, a 1.94 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Corinthians, meanwhile, have gone 13W 11D 7L across 31 games — 1.61 PPG, with D-W-W-L-W in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.94 PPG for Flamengo against 1.61 for Corinthians. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Flamengo have managed 11W 1D 4L from 16 games — 2.12 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Corinthians's away record stands at 5W 7D 4L across 16 trips, a 1.38 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Flamengo are averaging 1.97 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Corinthians are on 1.13 scored and 0.97 conceded. Flamengo's scoring rate against Corinthians's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 31 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Flamengo
Current Season
Corinthians
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Flamengo and Corinthians in coming into this match?
Flamengo have gone 18W 6D 7L in their last 31 games (1.94 PPG), while Corinthians have gone 13W 11D 7L in their last 31 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Flamengo at home or Corinthians away?
Flamengo's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Flamengo at home: 2.12 PPG; Corinthians away: 1.38 PPG.
Have Flamengo or Corinthians been keeping clean sheets recently?
Flamengo have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Corinthians in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since November 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Flamengo won 4-0 on 27 Apr 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Flamengo have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Corinthians — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Flamengo
2
Draws
3
Corinthians
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Flamengo and Corinthians?
From 10 meetings on record, Flamengo have won 5, Corinthians have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Flamengo and Corinthians last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Corinthians 1-1 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Flamengo and Corinthians?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Corinthians see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 31% (Flamengo) and 38% (Corinthians) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Flamengo) and 25% (Corinthians).
On the defensive side: Flamengo keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Corinthians in 38%; Corinthians in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Flamengo home games / Corinthians away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Flamengo play Corinthians?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Flamengo's recent matches and 38% of Corinthians's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Flamengo vs Corinthians usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Flamengo's recent games and 25% of Corinthians's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Flamengo and Corinthians tend to score early?
Flamengo have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Corinthians in 50% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out Corinthians 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Corinthians 1-0 at Estadio Jornalista Mário Filho, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Flamengo 1.46 xG and Corinthians 0.70 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Flamengo attack 1.28 / defence 0.94 against Corinthians attack 0.78 / defence 1.18, drawn from 31/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Flamengo 55% | Draw 27% | Corinthians 18%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Flamengo 58%, Corinthians 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Flamengo's trading profile (31 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Corinthians's trading profile (31 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Flamengo 1.94 PPG, Corinthians 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Flamengo win broke the near-deadlock. Flamengo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.81 average — tighter than their form line. Corinthians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.81 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.