Cuiaba 0-0 Santos – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Cuiaba take on Santos.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Cuiaba host Santos at Arena Pantanal in Serie A, Regular Season - 24. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 28 August 2022 at 22:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cuiaba stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L L L W D. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cuiaba's form when playing at home: 3W 5D 2L across 10 games at Arena Pantanal this term (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie A games this season, Santos have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D D W L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Santos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Santos have posted 2W 4D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.00 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Cuiaba 1.10 PPG, Santos 1.50 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 3 previous meetings, Cuiaba have won 1, Santos 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.3 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 8 May 2022, ended 1–4 with Santos winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Cuiaba in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Santos in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 53% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 41% versus Santos 38%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cuiaba 28% | Santos 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 0.79 xG and Santos 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.724 / defence 0.818 | Santos attack 0.866 / defence 0.834. League average goals — home 1.307 / away 0.897. Cuiaba's attack strength of 0.724 is below the league average — the 0.79 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 61 Cuiaba games / 61 Santos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 36% | Draw 38% | Santos 27%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 2.78 | Draw 2.63 | Santos 3.70. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 17% | BTTS probability 26% | Total xG 1.43. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 83% probability — total xG of 1.43 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 74% — Santos's lower xG of 0.64 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 26%.
Analysis Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 36% and away win at 27% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.43 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 17% probability — marginal — conflicting signals conviction, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.3 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 26%. Form rates corroborate: Cuiaba 40% | Santos 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Sunday 28 Aug 2022, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 36% | Draw 38% | Santos 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 17% | BTTS 26% | xG Cuiaba 0.79 / Santos 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.724 / def 0.818 | Santos attack 0.866 / def 0.834 | league avg home 1.307 / away 0.897 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.79
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Santos xG
26%
BTTS
42%
Over 1.5
17%
Over 2.5
6%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Santos kick off?
Cuiaba vs Santos kicked off at 22:00 on Sunday 28 August 2022 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Santos?
Cuiaba 0 - 0 Santos.
Where is Cuiaba vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Santos part of?
Cuiaba vs Santos is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 36% chance of winning, Santos a 27% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 26% probability that both Cuiaba and Santos will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 17%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Santos?
Record (3 meetings): Cuiaba 1W | Draws 1 | Santos 1W.
What form are Cuiaba and Santos in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-L-W-D. Santos (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-D-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Cuiaba's attack at 0.72x the league average against Santos's defence at 0.83x — combine the two and it projects 0.79 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Santos's attack versus Cuiaba's defence, projects 0.64 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/61 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 25.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (17.4%), 0-1 (13.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 57% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
36%
2.80
38%
2.65
27%
3.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
24.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
19.0%
Home win
0 – 1
15.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.79
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
1.43
0.64
Santos xG
2.80
36%
Home win
2.65
38%
Draw
3.76
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
42%
Over 1.5
2.38
58%
Under 1.5
1.72
17%
Over 2.5
5.88
83%
Under 2.5
1.20
6%
Over 3.5
16.67
94%
Under 3.5
1.06
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
26%
BTTS Yes
3.89
74%
BTTS No
1.35
Clean Sheet
53%
1.89
45%
2.20
Win to Nil
19%
5.29
12%
8.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 24.1 | 15.3 | 4.9 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 19.0 | 12.1 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 7.5 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 2.0 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 25.6%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 0.79 expected goals for Cuiaba and 0.64 for Santos, a combined total of 1.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Santos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, Cuiaba have picked up 1.16 PPG on a 16W 23D 22L record — L-L-L-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Santos's form line: 20W 23D 18L from 61 games, 1.36 PPG, last five D-D-W-L-W. The sample for Santos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cuiaba on 1.16 PPG, Santos on 1.36. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Cuiaba have posted 1.37 PPG from 30 outings (10W 11D 9L).
On the road, Santos have gone 5W 13D 12L from 30 away games — 0.93 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.36 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Santos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Cuiaba come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cuiaba are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Santos are on 1.02 scored and 0.98 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Santos in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 61 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Blended
Santos
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Santos in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 16W 23D 22L in their last 61 games (1.16 PPG), while Santos have gone 20W 23D 18L in their last 61 (1.36 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Santos away?
Cuiaba's home record (1.37 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.37 PPG; Santos away: 0.93 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or Santos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Santos in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 November 2023, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 May 2022, when Santos won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cuiaba's record when hosting Santos specifically: 2W 1D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Cuiaba
3
Draws
1
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Santos?
From 6 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 2, Santos have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Santos last play each other?
They last met on 7 November 2023, when Santos 0-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Santos?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches.
Santos see a goal before the break in 53% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 40%, Santos 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for Cuiaba and 37% for Santos.
On the defensive side: Cuiaba keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Cuiaba have failed to score in 33% of games; Santos in 47%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Santos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 43% of Santos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Santos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Cuiaba's recent games and 37% of Santos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Santos tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 63% of their recent matches, Santos in 53% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cuiaba's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 24, as Cuiaba and Santos drew 0-0 in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 0.79 xG and Santos 0.64 xG, a combined 1.43. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.72 / defence 0.82 against Santos attack 0.87 / defence 0.83, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 36% | Draw 38% | Santos 27%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 17%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 42% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 26% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 31% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 28%, Santos 34%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Santos's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 1.16 PPG, Santos 1.36 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.87 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line. Santos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.20 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.