Cuiaba 1-0 Internacional – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 36% as Cuiaba take on Internacional.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Internacional make the trip to Arena Pantanal to face Cuiaba in Serie A, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Wednesday 17 November 2021 at 22:00 UTC.
Current Form
Cuiaba's overall Serie A record this term: 2W 4D 4L from 10 games (1.00 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Arena Pantanal, Cuiaba have gone 4W 4D 2L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Pantanal. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Cuiaba are significantly better at Arena Pantanal than their overall form suggests.
Internacional have collected 1.50 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 4W 3D 3L. Last five: D L W L W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.10. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Internacional have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. Internacional are 0.50 PPG clear of Cuiaba in recent Serie A fixtures (1.50 vs 1.00). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
Both sides have a clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Cuiaba have seen both teams score in just 30% of their matches, Internacional in only 30%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from the form record of both squads.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Cuiaba 0W, Internacional 0W, 1D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Aug 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Cuiaba — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 33% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 44% of games.
Internacional — key trading statistics (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 44% versus Internacional 50%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cuiaba 38% | Internacional 41%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 0.77 xG and Internacional 0.80 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.730 / defence 1.118 | Internacional attack 0.760 / defence 1.075. League average goals — home 0.985 / away 0.941. Cuiaba's attack strength of 0.730 is below the league average — the 0.77 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 32 Cuiaba games / 32 Internacional games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 31% | Draw 36% | Internacional 33%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 3.23 | Draw 2.78 | Internacional 3.03. The draw (36%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 21% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.57. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 79% probability — total xG of 1.57 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Cuiaba's lower xG of 0.77 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 36% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 1.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 21% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.6 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 30% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cuiaba 30% | Internacional 30% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Internacional | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Wednesday 17 Nov 2021, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 31% | Draw 36% | Internacional 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 21% | BTTS 30% | xG Cuiaba 0.77 / Internacional 0.80 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.730 / def 1.118 | Internacional attack 0.760 / def 1.075 | league avg home 0.985 / away 0.941 • Poisson stance: Draw (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
0.80
Internacional xG
30%
BTTS
47%
Over 1.5
21%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Internacional kick off?
Cuiaba vs Internacional kicked off at 22:00 on Wednesday 17 November 2021 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Internacional?
Cuiaba 1 - 0 Internacional.
Where is Cuiaba vs Internacional being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Internacional part of?
Cuiaba vs Internacional is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Internacional?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 31% chance of winning, Internacional a 33% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Internacional?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Cuiaba and Internacional will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Internacional have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 21%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Internacional?
Record (1 meetings): Cuiaba 0W | Draws 1 | Internacional 0W.
What form are Cuiaba and Internacional in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Internacional (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Cuiaba's attack at 0.73x the league average against Internacional's defence at 1.07x — combine the two and it projects 0.77 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Internacional's attack (0.76x) against Cuiaba's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 0.80.
These ratings are built from 32/32 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 22.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (14.9%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.21
36%
2.76
33%
3.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
16.6%
Away win
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
1.57
0.80
Internacional xG
3.21
31%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
3.06
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
21%
Over 2.5
4.76
79%
Under 2.5
1.27
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.34
70%
BTTS No
1.43
Clean Sheet
45%
2.23
46%
2.17
Win to Nil
14%
7.15
15%
6.63
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.7 | 16.6 | 6.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 16.0 | 12.8 | 5.1 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 6.2 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Internacional?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 22.4%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Internacional expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Cuiaba and 0.80 for Internacional, a combined total of 1.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Internacional?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 32 outings, Cuiaba have picked up 1.22 PPG on a 8W 15D 9L record — L-W-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Internacional's form line: 12W 11D 9L from 32 games, 1.47 PPG, last five D-L-W-L-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.22 PPG for Cuiaba against 1.47 for Internacional. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cuiaba have posted 1.31 PPG from 16 outings (5W 6D 5L).
On the road, Internacional have gone 4W 6D 6L from 16 away games — 1.12 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Cuiaba are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Internacional are on 1.28 scored and 1.06 conceded.
Defensively: Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Current Season
Internacional
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Internacional in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 8W 15D 9L in their last 32 games (1.22 PPG), while Internacional have gone 12W 11D 9L in their last 32 (1.47 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Internacional away?
Cuiaba's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.31 PPG; Internacional away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or Internacional been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 38% of their recent games, Internacional in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 17 September 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Internacional have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Internacional won 3-0 on 17 Sep 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cuiaba have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Internacional — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Cuiaba
2
Draws
4
Internacional
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Internacional?
From 8 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 2, Internacional have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Internacional last play each other?
They last met on 17 September 2024, when Internacional 3-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Internacional?
Internacional have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Internacional are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 44%, Internacional 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Cuiaba) and 38% (Internacional).
On the defensive side: Cuiaba keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Internacional in 38%; Cuiaba have failed to score in 38% of games; Internacional in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Internacional away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Internacional?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 44% of Internacional's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Internacional usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Cuiaba's recent games and 38% of Internacional's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Internacional tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Internacional in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cuiaba defy the odds to beat Internacional 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cuiaba beat Internacional 1-0 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 33, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 0.77 xG and Internacional 0.80 xG, a combined 1.57. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Internacional landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.73 / defence 1.12 against Internacional attack 0.76 / defence 1.07, drawn from 32/32 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 31% | Draw 36% | Internacional 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 36%. The actual Cuiaba win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 21%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 47% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 38%, Internacional 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (32 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Internacional's trading profile (32 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 1.22 PPG, Internacional 1.47 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Cuiaba win broke the near-deadlock. Cuiaba (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Internacional (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.94 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.