Cuiaba 1-3 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cuiaba at 37%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cuiaba vs Gremio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 22 sees Gremio travel to Arena Pantanal to take on Cuiaba. The game is scheduled for Saturday 10 August 2024, 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Cuiaba have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Arena Pantanal, Cuiaba have gone 1W 3D 6L this season (10 games, 0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Gremio stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Gremio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Gremio have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form points away from home here. Gremio's 1.50 PPG return is 0.50 points per game ahead of Cuiaba's 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, Gremio have the better historical record — 4 wins from 5 previous contests against 0 for Cuiaba.
The 5 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Apr 2024, ended 0–1 with Gremio winning.
It is worth noting that Gremio have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 5 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Cuiaba trading profile (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Gremio trading profile (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 82% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 37% versus Gremio 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cuiaba 40% | Gremio 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 1.11 xG and Gremio 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.805 / defence 1.071 | Gremio attack 0.934 / defence 1.062. League average goals — home 1.299 / away 1.050. Data: 57 Cuiaba games / 57 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 37% | Draw 29% | Gremio 34%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 2.70 | Draw 3.45 | Gremio 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Cuiaba at 37% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Gremio (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Cuiaba offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Cuiaba 30% | Gremio 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 22 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Saturday 10 Aug 2024, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 37% | Draw 29% | Gremio 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Cuiaba 1.11 / Gremio 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.805 / def 1.071 | Gremio attack 0.934 / def 1.062 | league avg home 1.299 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (37%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.11
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Gremio xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Gremio kick off?
Cuiaba vs Gremio kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 10 August 2024 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Gremio?
Cuiaba 1 - 3 Gremio.
Where is Cuiaba vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Gremio part of?
Cuiaba vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 22 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 37% chance of winning, Gremio a 34% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Cuiaba and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Gremio?
Record (5 meetings): Cuiaba 0W | Draws 1 | Gremio 4W.
What form are Cuiaba and Gremio in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Gremio (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Cuiaba's attacking strength (0.81x league average) is weighed against Gremio's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.11. The same calculation in reverse, Gremio's attack versus Cuiaba's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 57/57 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
37%
2.72
29%
3.40
34%
2.96
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
12.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.11
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.16
1.05
Gremio xG
2.72
37%
Home win
3.40
29%
Draw
2.96
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.29
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
33%
3.03
Win to Nil
13%
7.77
11%
8.99
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 12.1 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.4 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.1 | 7.5 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.7 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.11 expected goals for Cuiaba and 1.05 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Gremio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 37%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Cuiaba come into this having played 57 games, going 18W 14D 25L for 1.19 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Gremio sit at 1.56 PPG from 57 outings (27W 8D 22L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-W across their last five. The sample for Gremio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cuiaba on 1.19 PPG, Gremio on 1.56. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Cuiaba's home form reads 7W 8D 13L across 28 games on their own ground, a 1.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Gremio have taken 1.04 points per game from 28 outings (8W 5D 15L). That's a step down from their 1.56 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gremio's season.
The Goals Picture
Cuiaba are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 1.40 scored and 1.37 conceded.
Last 57 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Blended
Gremio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Gremio in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 18W 14D 25L in their last 57 games (1.19 PPG), while Gremio have gone 27W 8D 22L in their last 57 (1.56 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Gremio away?
Cuiaba's home record (1.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.04 PPG; Gremio away: 1.04 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Cuiaba and Gremio runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 10 August 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Gremio have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
Cuiaba's record when hosting Gremio specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Cuiaba
1
Draws
5
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Gremio?
From 6 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 0, Gremio have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 10 August 2024, when Cuiaba 1-3 Gremio.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Gremio?
Gremio have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 82% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 36%, Gremio 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Cuiaba) and 64% (Gremio). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 11% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cuiaba have failed to score in 46% of games; Gremio in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Gremio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 36% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 61% of Gremio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 46% of Cuiaba's matches and 64% of Gremio's.
Do Cuiaba and Gremio tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Gremio in 82% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Gremio cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Cuiaba.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Gremio beat Cuiaba 1-3 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 22, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 1.11 xG and Gremio 1.05 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Gremio outscored their 1.05 projection by 1.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.81 / defence 1.07 against Gremio attack 0.93 / defence 1.06, drawn from 57/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 37% | Draw 29% | Gremio 34%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual Gremio win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 17% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 40%, Gremio 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did.
Gremio's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 1.19 PPG, Gremio 1.56 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Gremio win broke the near-deadlock. Cuiaba (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.18 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Gremio (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.29 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 1.89 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.