Cuiaba 1-2 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Flamengo (43%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cuiaba face Flamengo.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Cuiaba and Flamengo meet at Arena Pantanal in Serie A, Regular Season - 34. This fixture gets under way on Wednesday 20 November 2024 at 22:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Cuiaba have collected 0.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 1W 5D 4L. Last five: D L L D D. They are averaging 0.20 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
Cuiaba's form when playing at home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 games at Arena Pantanal this term (0.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game.
Flamengo (all games): 4W 3D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.50 points per game. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Flamengo away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On a straight form reading, Flamengo are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.80). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
The head-to-head ledger leans to Flamengo, who have claimed 4 wins from 7 meetings compared to 1 for the hosts, with 2 draws.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 7 Jul 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Flamengo have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 4 wins from 7 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading
Cuiaba half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 54% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 66% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
Flamengo half-time and goal-timing data (71 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 34% versus Flamengo 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cuiaba 38% | Flamengo 51%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 0.93 xG and Flamengo 1.22 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.747 / defence 0.979 | Flamengo attack 1.268 / defence 0.929. League average goals — home 1.340 / away 0.980. Cuiaba's attack strength of 0.747 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Flamengo have an above-average attack strength of 1.268 — the away xG of 1.22 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 71 Cuiaba games / 71 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 28% | Draw 29% | Flamengo 43%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 3.57 | Draw 3.45 | Flamengo 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Flamengo at 43% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Flamengo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. This conflicts with form data: Cuiaba 50% | Flamengo 70% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Wednesday 20 Nov 2024, 22:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 28% | Draw 29% | Flamengo 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Cuiaba 0.93 / Flamengo 1.22 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.747 / def 0.979 | Flamengo attack 1.268 / def 0.929 | league avg home 1.340 / away 0.980 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
1.22
Flamengo xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Flamengo kick off?
Cuiaba vs Flamengo kicked off at 22:00 on Wednesday 20 November 2024 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Flamengo?
Cuiaba 1 - 2 Flamengo.
Where is Cuiaba vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Flamengo part of?
Cuiaba vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 28% chance of winning, Flamengo a 43% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Cuiaba and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Flamengo?
Record (7 meetings): Cuiaba 1W | Draws 2 | Flamengo 4W.
What form are Cuiaba and Flamengo in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.20 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-L-L-D-D. Flamengo (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from Cuiaba's attack rating (0.75) and Flamengo's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 0.93 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Flamengo's attack (1.27x) against Cuiaba's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 1.22.
These ratings are built from 71/71 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
28%
3.55
29%
3.43
43%
2.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.15
1.22
Flamengo xG
3.55
28%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
2.34
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
30%
3.38
39%
2.53
Win to Nil
8%
11.99
17%
5.94
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 14.2 | 8.7 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 13.2 | 8.0 | 3.3 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 6.1 | 3.7 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for Cuiaba and 1.22 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Cuiaba's recent record stands at 20W 20D 31L from 71 games, a 1.13 PPG return, with D-L-L-D-D in the last five.
Flamengo, meanwhile, have gone 36W 17D 18L across 71 games — 1.76 PPG, with L-W-D-W-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Flamengo by 0.63 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cuiaba heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Cuiaba have managed 9W 11D 15L from 35 games — 1.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Flamengo's away record stands at 16W 8D 11L across 35 trips, a 1.60 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Flamengo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Cuiaba are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.13 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.51 scored and 1.11 conceded.
Last 71 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 20W 20D 31L in their last 71 games (1.13 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 36W 17D 18L in their last 71 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Flamengo away?
Flamengo's away record (1.60 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.09 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.60 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Flamengo in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 November 2024, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Cuiaba won 3-0 on 7 Aug 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cuiaba have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Flamengo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cuiaba
2
Draws
5
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Flamengo?
From 8 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 1, Flamengo have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 20 November 2024, when Cuiaba 1-2 Flamengo.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 54% of their matches.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 37%, Flamengo 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Cuiaba) and 57% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Cuiaba keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Cuiaba have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Flamengo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 37% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 63% of Flamengo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Cuiaba's recent games and 57% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Flamengo tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 54% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Flamengo edge out Cuiaba 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Flamengo beat Cuiaba 1-2 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 34, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 0.93 xG and Flamengo 1.22 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.75 / defence 0.98 against Flamengo attack 1.27 / defence 0.93, drawn from 71/71 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 28% | Draw 29% | Flamengo 43%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 43%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 38%, Flamengo 51%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (71 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Flamengo's trading profile (71 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.76 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Cuiaba (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.