Cuiaba 0-0 Cruzeiro – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Cuiaba at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cuiaba vs Cruzeiro fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Cruzeiro make the trip to Arena Pantanal to face Cuiaba in Serie A, Regular Season - 26. The match kicks off on Sunday 15 October 2023 at 01:00 UTC.
Form
Cuiaba (all games): 4W 1D 5L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cuiaba's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Arena Pantanal this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
Cruzeiro's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L D W L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Cruzeiro, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Cruzeiro have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.30 exceeds their overall 0.80 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
The points-per-game gap of 0.50 in Cuiaba's favour (1.30 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: Cuiaba 1W, Cruzeiro 0W, 0D.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 23 May 2023, ended 1–0 with Cuiaba winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading & In-Play
Cuiaba — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Cruzeiro — key trading statistics (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 56% of the time; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 48% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Cuiaba 40% | Cruzeiro 28%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cuiaba 40% | Cruzeiro 32%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 1.37 xG and Cruzeiro 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 1.059 / defence 1.006 | Cruzeiro attack 1.045 / defence 0.941. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.021. Data: 63 Cuiaba games / 25 Cruzeiro games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 42% | Draw 30% | Cruzeiro 28%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Cruzeiro 3.57. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.44. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.44 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Cuiaba as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Cuiaba if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.44 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 50% on Yes. This conflicts with form data: Cuiaba 40% | Cruzeiro 30% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Cruzeiro | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Sunday 15 Oct 2023, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 42% | Draw 30% | Cruzeiro 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 50% | xG Cuiaba 1.37 / Cruzeiro 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 1.059 / def 1.006 | Cruzeiro attack 1.045 / def 0.941 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.021 • Poisson stance: Cuiaba (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.37
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Cruzeiro xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Cruzeiro kick off?
Cuiaba vs Cruzeiro kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 15 October 2023 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Cruzeiro?
Cuiaba 0 - 0 Cruzeiro.
Where is Cuiaba vs Cruzeiro being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Cruzeiro part of?
Cuiaba vs Cruzeiro is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Cruzeiro?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 42% chance of winning, Cruzeiro a 28% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Cuiaba the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Cruzeiro?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Cuiaba and Cruzeiro will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Cruzeiro have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Cruzeiro?
Record (1 meetings): Cuiaba 1W | Draws 0 | Cruzeiro 0W.
What form are Cuiaba and Cruzeiro in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Cruzeiro (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-D-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Cuiaba's attacking strength (1.06x league average) is weighed against Cruzeiro's defensive record (0.94x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.37. Flip it around — Cruzeiro's attack (1.04x) against Cuiaba's defence (1.01x) — and the away total comes out at 1.07.
These ratings are built from 63/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.4%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Cuiaba Win
42%
2.38
30%
3.34
28%
3.57
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.9%
Home win
0 – 1
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.37
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.44
1.07
Cruzeiro xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
3.57
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
1.98
50%
BTTS No
2.02
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
26%
3.92
Win to Nil
14%
6.96
7%
14.00
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.9 | 12.8 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.7 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 4.0 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Cruzeiro?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Cruzeiro expected to score?
The model projects 1.37 expected goals for Cuiaba and 1.07 for Cruzeiro, a combined total of 2.44.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Cruzeiro?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 25 outings, Cuiaba have picked up 1.28 PPG on a 9W 5D 11L record — L-L-D-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cruzeiro's form line: 7W 9D 9L from 25 games, 1.20 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-D. The sample for Cruzeiro is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.28 PPG for Cuiaba against 1.20 for Cruzeiro. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Cuiaba have posted 1.33 PPG from 12 outings (4W 4D 4L).
On the road, Cruzeiro have gone 4W 4D 4L from 12 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Cuiaba are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Cruzeiro are on 0.96 scored and 0.88 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Cruzeiro in 28%.
Defensively: Cruzeiro in 40% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Blended
Cruzeiro
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Cruzeiro in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 9W 5D 11L in their last 25 games (1.28 PPG), while Cruzeiro have gone 7W 9D 9L in their last 25 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Cruzeiro away?
Cuiaba's home record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.33 PPG; Cruzeiro away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or Cruzeiro been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Cruzeiro in 40%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to May 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 September 2024, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Cuiaba have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Cruzeiro — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Cuiaba
2
Draws
1
Cruzeiro
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Cruzeiro?
From 4 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 1, Cruzeiro have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Cruzeiro last play each other?
They last met on 22 September 2024, when Cuiaba 0-0 Cruzeiro.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Cruzeiro are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 50%, Cruzeiro 33% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Cuiaba) and 58% (Cruzeiro). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 25% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Cruzeiro in 42%; Cruzeiro in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Cruzeiro away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Cruzeiro?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 33% of Cruzeiro's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Cruzeiro usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Cuiaba's matches and 58% of Cruzeiro's.
Do Cuiaba and Cruzeiro tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Cruzeiro in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Cuiaba's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 26, as Cuiaba and Cruzeiro drew 0-0 in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 1.37 xG and Cruzeiro 1.07 xG, a combined 2.44. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Cuiaba fell 1.4 short of their projected output. Cruzeiro landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 1.06 / defence 1.01 against Cruzeiro attack 1.04 / defence 0.94, drawn from 63/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 42% | Draw 30% | Cruzeiro 28%, with Cuiaba to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 40%, Cruzeiro 32%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Cruzeiro's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 1.28 PPG, Cruzeiro 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line. Cruzeiro (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.