Cuiaba 1-2 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 34% as Cuiaba take on Botafogo.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 14 as Cuiaba welcome Botafogo to Arena Pantanal. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 3 July 2024 at 23:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Cuiaba have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W D D D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Cuiaba, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cuiaba's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Arena Pantanal this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Botafogo — All Games: 5W 3D 2L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.80 PPG. Last five: W D L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Botafogo, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Botafogo's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Botafogo are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.80 vs 1.30), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Cuiaba, 1 for Botafogo and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.5 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Oct 2023, ended 1–0 with Cuiaba winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.5 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Cuiaba in-play and half-time data (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 35% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Botafogo in-play and half-time data (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 33% versus Botafogo 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cuiaba 39% | Botafogo 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 1.06 xG and Botafogo 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.879 / defence 0.910 | Botafogo attack 1.092 / defence 0.901. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 1.063. Data: 51 Cuiaba games / 51 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 33% | Draw 34% | Botafogo 33%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 3.03 | Draw 2.94 | Botafogo 3.03. The draw (34%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.12. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.12 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Cuiaba dominate the H2H record, yet Botafogo are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 34% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 33% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 2.12 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.5 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Cuiaba 20% | Botafogo 80%.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Wednesday 3 Jul 2024, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 33% | Draw 34% | Botafogo 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 45% | xG Cuiaba 1.06 / Botafogo 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.879 / def 0.910 | Botafogo attack 1.092 / def 0.901 | league avg home 1.338 / away 1.063 • Poisson stance: Draw (34%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Botafogo xG
45%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Botafogo kick off?
Cuiaba vs Botafogo kicked off at 23:00 on Wednesday 3 July 2024 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Botafogo?
Cuiaba 1 - 2 Botafogo.
Where is Cuiaba vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Botafogo part of?
Cuiaba vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 33% chance of winning, Botafogo a 33% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Cuiaba and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Botafogo?
Record (4 meetings): Cuiaba 3W | Draws 0 | Botafogo 1W.
What form are Cuiaba and Botafogo in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-D-D. Botafogo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cuiaba's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against Botafogo's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.06. The same calculation in reverse, Botafogo's attack versus Cuiaba's defence, projects 1.06 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.8%), 1-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
33%
3.02
34%
2.95
33%
3.03
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.8%
Home win
0 – 1
12.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.12
1.06
Botafogo xG
3.02
33%
Home win
2.95
34%
Draw
3.03
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
35%
2.87
35%
2.88
Win to Nil
12%
8.68
11%
8.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.1 | 12.7 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.8 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.8 | 7.1 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Cuiaba and 1.06 for Botafogo, a combined total of 2.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 34%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cuiaba's recent record stands at 17W 13D 21L from 51 games, a 1.25 PPG return, with W-W-D-D-D in the last five. The sample for Cuiaba is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Botafogo, meanwhile, have gone 25W 13D 13L across 51 games — 1.73 PPG, with W-D-L-W-D in their last five. The sample for Botafogo is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Botafogo by 0.48 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cuiaba heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cuiaba have managed 7W 9D 10L from 26 games — 1.15 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Botafogo's away record stands at 10W 8D 8L across 26 trips, a 1.46 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cuiaba are averaging 1.06 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game recently; Botafogo are on 1.55 scored and 0.98 conceded.
Defensively: Botafogo in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Blended
Botafogo
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Botafogo in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 17W 13D 21L in their last 51 games (1.25 PPG), while Botafogo have gone 25W 13D 13L in their last 51 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Botafogo away?
Botafogo's away record (1.46 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.15 PPG; Botafogo away: 1.46 PPG.
Have Cuiaba or Botafogo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cuiaba have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Botafogo in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cuiaba's record when hosting Botafogo specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cuiaba
1
Draws
2
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Botafogo?
From 6 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 3, Botafogo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2024, when Botafogo 0-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Botafogo?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 35%, Botafogo 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Cuiaba) and 42% (Botafogo).
On the defensive side: Cuiaba keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Botafogo in 31%; Cuiaba have failed to score in 46% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Botafogo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 35% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 54% of Botafogo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Botafogo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Cuiaba's recent games and 42% of Botafogo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Botafogo tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Botafogo in 62% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Botafogo defy the odds to beat Cuiaba 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Cuiaba 1-2 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 1.06 xG and Botafogo 1.06 xG, a combined 2.12. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Botafogo outscored their 1.06 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.88 / defence 0.91 against Botafogo attack 1.09 / defence 0.90, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 33% | Draw 34% | Botafogo 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 34%. The actual Botafogo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 39%, Botafogo 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Botafogo's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 1.25. Form held, and they took the win. Cuiaba (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.