Cuiaba 0-1 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Botafogo at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Cuiaba vs Botafogo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 11 as Cuiaba welcome Botafogo to Arena Pantanal. Kick-off is set for Friday 23 June 2023 at 00:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Cuiaba have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W W D L W. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Cuiaba's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Arena Pantanal this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Botafogo — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Botafogo's away record: 5W 2D 3L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Botafogo are 0.50 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Cuiaba, 0 for Botafogo and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 31 Oct 2022, ended 2–0 with Cuiaba winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Cuiaba in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 21% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Botafogo in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cuiaba 47% versus Botafogo 40%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Cuiaba 29% | Botafogo 37%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cuiaba 1.05 xG and Botafogo 1.47 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cuiaba attack 0.767 / defence 1.265 | Botafogo attack 1.069 / defence 0.994. League average goals — home 1.379 / away 1.084. Cuiaba's attack strength of 0.767 is below the league average — the 1.05 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 48 Cuiaba games / 48 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cuiaba 25% | Draw 31% | Botafogo 44%. Fair-value odds: Cuiaba 4.00 | Draw 3.23 | Botafogo 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Botafogo as the most likely outcome at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Botafogo offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.52 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: Cuiaba 60% | Botafogo 40%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cuiaba vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Arena Pantanal • Kick-off: Friday 23 Jun 2023, 00:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cuiaba 25% | Draw 31% | Botafogo 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 53% | xG Cuiaba 1.05 / Botafogo 1.47 • Poisson strength factors: Cuiaba attack 0.767 / def 1.265 | Botafogo attack 1.069 / def 0.994 | league avg home 1.379 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
Cuiaba xG
Expected Goals
1.47
Botafogo xG
53%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cuiaba vs Botafogo kick off?
Cuiaba vs Botafogo kicked off at 00:00 on Friday 23 June 2023 at Arena Pantanal.
What was the final score in Cuiaba vs Botafogo?
Cuiaba 0 - 1 Botafogo.
Where is Cuiaba vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Arena Pantanal.
What competition is Cuiaba vs Botafogo part of?
Cuiaba vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Cuiaba vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Cuiaba a 25% chance of winning, Botafogo a 44% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cuiaba vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Cuiaba and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will Cuiaba vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Botafogo?
Record (2 meetings): Cuiaba 2W | Draws 0 | Botafogo 0W.
What form are Cuiaba and Botafogo in?
Cuiaba (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Botafogo (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cuiaba's attacking strength (0.77x league average) is weighed against Botafogo's defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.05. The same calculation in reverse, Botafogo's attack versus Cuiaba's defence, projects 1.47 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 48/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
25%
4.07
31%
3.20
44%
2.27
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
Cuiaba xG
Total xG
2.52
1.47
Botafogo xG
4.07
25%
Home win
3.20
31%
Draw
2.27
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.11
Clean Sheet
23%
4.33
35%
2.86
Win to Nil
6%
17.62
15%
6.49
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 11.8 | 8.7 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.5 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.3 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cuiaba vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Cuiaba and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for Cuiaba and 1.47 for Botafogo, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Cuiaba vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cuiaba's recent record stands at 10W 11D 17L from 38 games, a 1.08 PPG return, with W-W-D-L-W in the last five.
Botafogo, meanwhile, have gone 15W 8D 15L across 38 games — 1.39 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Cuiaba on 1.08 PPG, Botafogo on 1.39. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cuiaba have managed 6W 8D 5L from 19 games — 1.37 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Botafogo's away record stands at 9W 4D 6L across 19 trips, a 1.63 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cuiaba are averaging 0.82 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Botafogo are on 1.08 scored and 1.13 conceded.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cuiaba
Current Season
Botafogo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cuiaba and Botafogo in coming into this match?
Cuiaba have gone 10W 11D 17L in their last 38 games (1.08 PPG), while Botafogo have gone 15W 8D 15L in their last 38 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cuiaba at home or Botafogo away?
Botafogo's away record (1.63 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cuiaba at home: 1.37 PPG; Botafogo away: 1.63 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Cuiaba's record when hosting Botafogo specifically: 1W 0D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Cuiaba
1
Draws
2
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cuiaba and Botafogo?
From 6 meetings on record, Cuiaba have won 3, Botafogo have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cuiaba and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2024, when Botafogo 0-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Cuiaba and Botafogo?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cuiaba see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 21% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cuiaba 53%, Botafogo 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 21% for Cuiaba and 42% for Botafogo.
On the defensive side: Cuiaba keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Cuiaba have failed to score in 26% of games; Botafogo in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cuiaba home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cuiaba play Botafogo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Cuiaba's recent matches and 42% of Botafogo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cuiaba vs Botafogo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 21% of Cuiaba's recent games and 42% of Botafogo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cuiaba and Botafogo tend to score early?
Cuiaba have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Botafogo in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Botafogo edge out Cuiaba 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Cuiaba 0-1 at Arena Pantanal, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cuiaba 1.05 xG and Botafogo 1.47 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Cuiaba fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cuiaba attack 0.77 / defence 1.26 against Botafogo attack 1.07 / defence 0.99, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cuiaba 25% | Draw 31% | Botafogo 44%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cuiaba 29%, Botafogo 37%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cuiaba's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Botafogo's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Cuiaba 1.08 PPG, Botafogo 1.39 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Botafogo win broke the near-deadlock. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.89 scoring average — below par going forward. Botafogo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.26 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.