Corinthians 0-0 Santos – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Corinthians at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Corinthians vs Santos fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 14 as Corinthians welcome Santos to Neo Química Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 25 June 2022 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Corinthians — All Games: 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.60 points per game. Last five: W L W D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Corinthians at Neo Química Arena this season: 8W 2D 0L from 10 home games — 2.60 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Neo Química Arena. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Corinthians are significantly better at Neo Química Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Santos have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: L W D W D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Santos's form when playing away from home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.60 PPG (Corinthians) versus 1.80 (Santos). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Corinthians, 0 for Santos and 1 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The last 2 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 21 Nov 2021, ended 2–0 with Corinthians winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Profile
Corinthians in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Santos in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Corinthians 50% versus Santos 32%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Corinthians 34% | Santos 29%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Corinthians 1.19 xG and Santos 0.73 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Corinthians attack 0.993 / defence 0.739 | Santos attack 0.995 / defence 0.920. League average goals — home 1.306 / away 0.990. Corinthians's defence rating of 0.739 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 51 Corinthians games / 51 Santos games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Corinthians 46% | Draw 32% | Santos 22%. Fair-value odds: Corinthians 2.17 | Draw 3.12 | Santos 4.55. Corinthians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.92. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.92 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Corinthians are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Corinthians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.92 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 30% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 37% on No. Form rates corroborate: Corinthians 50% | Santos 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Corinthians vs Santos | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Neo Química Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 25 Jun 2022, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Corinthians 46% | Draw 32% | Santos 22% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Corinthians 1.19 / Santos 0.73 • Poisson strength factors: Corinthians attack 0.993 / def 0.739 | Santos attack 0.995 / def 0.920 | league avg home 1.306 / away 0.990 • Poisson stance: Corinthians (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Corinthians xG
Expected Goals
0.73
Santos xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Corinthians vs Santos kick off?
Corinthians vs Santos kicked off at 23:00 on Saturday 25 June 2022 at Neo Química Arena.
What was the final score in Corinthians vs Santos?
Corinthians 0 - 0 Santos.
Where is Corinthians vs Santos being played?
The match is being played at Neo Química Arena.
What competition is Corinthians vs Santos part of?
Corinthians vs Santos is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Corinthians vs Santos?
Our statistical model gives Corinthians a 46% chance of winning, Santos a 22% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Corinthians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Santos?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Corinthians and Santos will score (BTTS).
Will Corinthians vs Santos have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Santos?
Record (2 meetings): Corinthians 1W | Draws 1 | Santos 0W.
What form are Corinthians and Santos in?
Corinthians (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-W-D-L. Santos (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 0.60 | L5 L-W-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Corinthians's attacking strength (0.99x league average) is weighed against Santos's defensive record (0.92x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.19. The same calculation in reverse, Santos's attack versus Corinthians's defence, projects 0.73 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 16.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (15.8%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 46% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Corinthians Win
46%
2.16
32%
3.13
22%
4.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.5%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.6%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Corinthians xG
Total xG
1.92
0.73
Santos xG
2.16
46%
Home win
3.13
32%
Draw
4.59
22%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.72
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
48%
2.07
30%
3.30
Win to Nil
22%
4.48
7%
15.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.6 | 10.7 | 3.9 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 17.5 | 12.7 | 4.6 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.4 | 7.6 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Corinthians vs Santos?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.3%.
How many goals are Corinthians and Santos expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Corinthians and 0.73 for Santos, a combined total of 1.92.
How confident is the prediction model for Corinthians vs Santos?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Corinthians come into this having played 38 games, going 15W 12D 11L for 1.50 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-D-L.
On the other side, Santos sit at 1.32 PPG from 38 outings (12W 14D 12L), a run that reads L-W-D-W-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Corinthians on 1.50 PPG, Santos on 1.32. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Corinthians's home form reads 10W 5D 4L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.84 PPG return.
Away from home, Santos have taken 0.89 points per game from 19 outings (3W 8D 8L). That's a step down from their 1.32 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Santos's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Corinthians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Corinthians are averaging 1.05 goals scored and 0.95 conceded per game recently; Santos are on 0.92 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Defensively: Santos in 45% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Corinthians
Current Season
Santos
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Corinthians and Santos in coming into this match?
Corinthians have gone 15W 12D 11L in their last 38 games (1.50 PPG), while Santos have gone 12W 14D 12L in their last 38 (1.32 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Corinthians at home or Santos away?
Corinthians's home record (1.84 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Corinthians at home: 1.84 PPG; Santos away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Corinthians or Santos been keeping clean sheets recently?
Corinthians have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Santos in 45%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Corinthians and Santos runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 15 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Corinthians's record when hosting Santos specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
4
Corinthians
4
Draws
1
Santos
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Santos?
From 9 meetings on record, Corinthians have won 4, Santos have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Corinthians and Santos last play each other?
They last met on 15 March 2026, when Santos 1-1 Corinthians.
Who has won more matches between Corinthians and Santos?
Corinthians have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Santos see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Corinthians 63%, Santos 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Corinthians) and 37% (Santos).
On the defensive side: Corinthians keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Santos in 32%; Santos in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Corinthians home games / Santos away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Corinthians play Santos?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Corinthians's recent matches and 42% of Santos's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Corinthians vs Santos usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Corinthians's recent games and 37% of Santos's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Corinthians and Santos tend to score early?
Corinthians have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Santos in 47% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Corinthians's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Corinthians and Santos finished level at 0-0 at Neo Química Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 1.19 xG and Santos 0.73 xG, a combined 1.92. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Corinthians fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 0.99 / defence 0.74 against Santos attack 0.99 / defence 0.92, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Corinthians 46% | Draw 32% | Santos 22%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 34%, Santos 29%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Corinthians's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 26% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Santos's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Corinthians 1.50 PPG, Santos 1.32 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Corinthians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.37 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Santos (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.37 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.