Corinthians 2-0 RB Bragantino – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Corinthians at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Corinthians vs RB Bragantino fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Corinthians host RB Bragantino at Neo Química Arena in Serie A, Regular Season - 3. Kick-off is scheduled for Thursday 12 February 2026 at 23:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Corinthians — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A outings this season, averaging 1.40 points per game. Last five: W L D L D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Neo Química Arena, Corinthians have gone 4W 3D 3L this season (10 games, 1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, RB Bragantino stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
RB Bragantino away from home this season: 1W 1D 8L from 10 away games — 0.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Corinthians at 1.40 PPG versus RB Bragantino's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Corinthians register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, RB Bragantino in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H Record
RB Bragantino have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 5 of the last 8 encounters against Corinthians's 2 victories.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.6 per contest from 8 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 5 Nov 2025, ended 1–2 with RB Bragantino winning.
It is worth noting that RB Bragantino have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 8 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Corinthians trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games).
RB Bragantino trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Corinthians 51% versus RB Bragantino 60%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Corinthians 49% | RB Bragantino 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Corinthians 1.50 xG and RB Bragantino 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Corinthians attack 0.934 / defence 1.045 | RB Bragantino attack 0.892 / defence 1.000. League average goals — home 1.606 / away 1.152. Data: 39 Corinthians games / 40 RB Bragantino games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Corinthians 47% | Draw 26% | RB Bragantino 27%. Fair-value odds: Corinthians 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | RB Bragantino 3.70. Corinthians hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Corinthians are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Corinthians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.57 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 47% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by H2H averaging 1.6 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate: Corinthians 60% | RB Bragantino 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (39 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Corinthians vs RB Bragantino | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Neo Química Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 12 Feb 2026, 23:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Corinthians 47% | Draw 26% | RB Bragantino 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 51% | xG Corinthians 1.50 / RB Bragantino 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Corinthians attack 0.934 / def 1.045 | RB Bragantino attack 0.892 / def 1.000 | league avg home 1.606 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: Corinthians (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Corinthians xG
Expected Goals
1.07
RB Bragantino xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Corinthians vs RB Bragantino kick off?
Corinthians vs RB Bragantino kicked off at 23:00 on Thursday 12 February 2026 at Neo Química Arena.
What was the final score in Corinthians vs RB Bragantino?
Corinthians 2 - 0 RB Bragantino.
Where is Corinthians vs RB Bragantino being played?
The match is being played at Neo Química Arena.
What competition is Corinthians vs RB Bragantino part of?
Corinthians vs RB Bragantino is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Corinthians vs RB Bragantino?
Our statistical model gives Corinthians a 47% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Corinthians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs RB Bragantino?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Corinthians and RB Bragantino will score (BTTS).
Will Corinthians vs RB Bragantino have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and RB Bragantino?
Record (8 meetings): Corinthians 2W | Draws 1 | RB Bragantino 5W.
What form are Corinthians and RB Bragantino in?
Corinthians (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-D-L-D. RB Bragantino (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Corinthians's attack rating (0.93) and RB Bragantino's defence rating (1.00), the model arrives at 1.50 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, RB Bragantino's attack versus Corinthians's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (39/40 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Corinthians Win
47%
2.13
26%
3.87
27%
3.69
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Corinthians xG
Total xG
2.57
1.07
RB Bragantino xG
2.13
47%
Home win
3.87
26%
Draw
3.69
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
34%
2.92
22%
4.48
Win to Nil
16%
6.21
6%
16.53
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.3 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Corinthians vs RB Bragantino?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Corinthians and RB Bragantino expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Corinthians and 1.07 for RB Bragantino, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for Corinthians vs RB Bragantino?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Corinthians come into this having played 76 games, going 27W 22D 27L for 1.36 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-L-D.
On the other side, RB Bragantino sit at 1.21 PPG from 76 outings (24W 20D 32L), a run that reads W-L-L-W-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Corinthians on 1.36 PPG, RB Bragantino on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Corinthians's home form reads 18W 14D 6L across 38 games on their own ground, a 1.79 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.36 PPG overall — Corinthians are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, RB Bragantino have taken 0.79 points per game from 38 outings (7W 9D 22L). That's a step down from their 1.21 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of RB Bragantino's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Corinthians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Corinthians are averaging 1.26 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; RB Bragantino are on 1.17 scored and 1.38 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: RB Bragantino in 61%.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Corinthians
Current Season
RB Bragantino
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Corinthians and RB Bragantino in coming into this match?
Corinthians have gone 27W 22D 27L in their last 76 games (1.36 PPG), while RB Bragantino have gone 24W 20D 32L in their last 76 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Corinthians at home or RB Bragantino away?
Corinthians's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Corinthians at home: 1.79 PPG; RB Bragantino away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 9 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Corinthians go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Corinthians's record when hosting RB Bragantino specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Corinthians
1
Draws
5
RB Bragantino
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and RB Bragantino?
From 10 meetings on record, Corinthians have won 4, RB Bragantino have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Corinthians and RB Bragantino last play each other?
They last met on 9 August 2026, when RB Bragantino 0-2 Corinthians.
Who has won more matches between Corinthians and RB Bragantino?
RB Bragantino have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 34% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 18% of those situations.
RB Bragantino are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Corinthians 58%, RB Bragantino 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (Corinthians) and 53% (RB Bragantino).
On the defensive side: Corinthians keep a clean sheet in 34% of their matches; RB Bragantino in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Corinthians home games / RB Bragantino away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Corinthians play RB Bragantino?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Corinthians's games and 63% of RB Bragantino's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Corinthians vs RB Bragantino usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of Corinthians's recent games and 53% of RB Bragantino's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Corinthians and RB Bragantino tend to score early?
Corinthians have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, RB Bragantino in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Corinthians cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over RB Bragantino.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Corinthians beat RB Bragantino 2-0 at Neo Química Arena, Regular Season - 3, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 1.50 xG and RB Bragantino 1.07 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. RB Bragantino landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 0.93 / defence 1.04 against RB Bragantino attack 0.89 / defence 1.00, drawn from 39/40 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Corinthians 47% | Draw 26% | RB Bragantino 27%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 49%, RB Bragantino 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Corinthians's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
RB Bragantino's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Corinthians 1.36 PPG, RB Bragantino 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Corinthians win broke the near-deadlock. Corinthians (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. RB Bragantino (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.92 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.