Corinthians 1-1 Gremio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Corinthians at 59%, yet other data sources diverge — this Corinthians vs Gremio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 37 sees Gremio travel to Neo Química Arena to take on Corinthians. The game is scheduled for Sunday 5 December 2021, 19:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Corinthians have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, Corinthians have posted 8W 2D 0L at Neo Química Arena — 2.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Neo Química Arena. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.60 — Corinthians are significantly better at Neo Química Arena than their overall form suggests.
Gremio — All Games: 4W 1D 5L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.30 PPG. Last five: W W D L W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.50. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Gremio have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.60 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Corinthians 1.60 PPG, Gremio 1.30 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 1 previous meetings, Corinthians have won 1, Gremio 0, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 1 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 29 Aug 2021, ended 1–0 with Corinthians winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Corinthians in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Gremio in-play and half-time data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Corinthians 50% versus Gremio 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Corinthians 36% | Gremio 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Corinthians 1.72 xG and Gremio 0.79 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Corinthians attack 1.131 / defence 1.050 | Gremio attack 0.829 / defence 1.522. League average goals — home 0.996 / away 0.910. Gremio bring a strong defensive rating of 1.522 — this is suppressing Corinthians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 36 Corinthians games / 36 Gremio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Corinthians 59% | Draw 24% | Gremio 17%. Fair-value odds: Corinthians 1.69 | Draw 4.17 | Gremio 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Corinthians (59%) — a 42pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Corinthians as the most likely outcome at 59% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.51 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 46% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates are neutral: Corinthians 50% | Gremio 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Corinthians vs Gremio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 37 | Venue: Neo Química Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Dec 2021, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Corinthians 59% | Draw 24% | Gremio 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 45% | xG Corinthians 1.72 / Gremio 0.79 • Poisson strength factors: Corinthians attack 1.131 / def 1.050 | Gremio attack 0.829 / def 1.522 | league avg home 0.996 / away 0.910 • Poisson stance: Corinthians (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.72
Corinthians xG
Expected Goals
0.79
Gremio xG
45%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Corinthians vs Gremio kick off?
Corinthians vs Gremio kicked off at 19:00 on Sunday 5 December 2021 at Neo Química Arena.
What was the final score in Corinthians vs Gremio?
Corinthians 1 - 1 Gremio.
Where is Corinthians vs Gremio being played?
The match is being played at Neo Química Arena.
What competition is Corinthians vs Gremio part of?
Corinthians vs Gremio is a Regular Season - 37 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Corinthians vs Gremio?
Our statistical model gives Corinthians a 59% chance of winning, Gremio a 17% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Corinthians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Gremio?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Corinthians and Gremio will score (BTTS).
Will Corinthians vs Gremio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Gremio?
Record (1 meetings): Corinthians 1W | Draws 0 | Gremio 0W.
What form are Corinthians and Gremio in?
Corinthians (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Gremio (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.50 | L5 W-W-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Corinthians's attack at 1.13x the league average against Gremio's defence at 1.52x — combine the two and it projects 1.72 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Gremio's attack versus Corinthians's defence, projects 0.79 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 12.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (12.5%), 2-0 (12.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Corinthians Win
59%
1.68
24%
4.24
17%
5.88
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.0%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.72
Corinthians xG
Total xG
2.51
0.79
Gremio xG
1.68
59%
Home win
4.24
24%
Draw
5.88
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
45%
2.21
18%
5.56
Win to Nil
27%
3.72
3%
32.65
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 6.5 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 14.0 | 11.1 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.0 | 9.5 | 3.8 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 6.9 | 5.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Corinthians vs Gremio?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.5%.
How many goals are Corinthians and Gremio expected to score?
The model projects 1.72 expected goals for Corinthians and 0.79 for Gremio, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Corinthians vs Gremio?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 36 outings, Corinthians have picked up 1.56 PPG on a 15W 11D 10L record — W-L-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Gremio's form line: 11W 6D 19L from 36 games, 1.08 PPG, last five W-W-D-L-W.
Put side by side, Corinthians are the form team by 0.48 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Gremio.
Venue Form
On home soil, Corinthians have posted 1.89 PPG from 18 outings (10W 4D 4L).
On the road, Gremio have gone 4W 0D 14L from 18 away games — 0.67 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.08 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Gremio's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Corinthians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Corinthians are averaging 1.08 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Gremio are on 1.08 scored and 1.31 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Corinthians
Current Season
Gremio
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Corinthians and Gremio in coming into this match?
Corinthians have gone 15W 11D 10L in their last 36 games (1.56 PPG), while Gremio have gone 11W 6D 19L in their last 36 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Corinthians at home or Gremio away?
Corinthians's home record (1.89 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Corinthians at home: 1.89 PPG; Gremio away: 0.67 PPG.
Have Corinthians or Gremio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Corinthians have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Gremio in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 30 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Corinthians have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 Dec 2024, when Corinthians won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Corinthians's record when hosting Gremio specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
5
Corinthians
4
Draws
0
Gremio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Gremio?
From 9 meetings on record, Corinthians have won 5, Gremio have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Corinthians and Gremio last play each other?
They last met on 30 May 2026, when Gremio 1-3 Corinthians.
Who has won more matches between Corinthians and Gremio?
Corinthians have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Corinthians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Gremio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Corinthians 61%, Gremio 39% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Corinthians) and 39% (Gremio).
On the defensive side: Corinthians keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Gremio in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Corinthians home games / Gremio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Corinthians play Gremio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 61% of Corinthians's recent matches and 39% of Gremio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Corinthians vs Gremio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Corinthians's recent games and 39% of Gremio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Corinthians and Gremio tend to score early?
Corinthians have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Gremio in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Corinthians and Gremio share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Corinthians and Gremio finished level at 1-1 at Neo Química Arena, Regular Season - 37, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 1.72 xG and Gremio 0.79 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 1.13 / defence 1.05 against Gremio attack 0.83 / defence 1.52, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Corinthians 59% | Draw 24% | Gremio 17%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 24% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 36%, Gremio 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Corinthians's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Gremio's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Corinthians arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.