Corinthians 0-1 Botafogo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Corinthians (39%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Corinthians face Botafogo.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 7 as Corinthians welcome Botafogo to Neo Química Arena. Kick-off is set for Sunday 2 June 2024 at 01:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Corinthians have gone 5W 2D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.70 PPG return. Last five: W L W L W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Corinthians's form when playing at home: 2W 6D 2L across 10 games at Neo Química Arena this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.20 lags behind their overall 1.70 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Neo Química Arena this season.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Botafogo stand at 0W 5D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D D D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Botafogo's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.00 exceeds their overall 0.50 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Corinthians carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.70 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Corinthians have won 3, Botafogo 1, with 0 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Sep 2023, ended 1–0 with Corinthians winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Corinthians trading profile (76 games, 38 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 84% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games).
Botafogo trading profile (76 games, 38 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Corinthians 50% versus Botafogo 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Corinthians 37% | Botafogo 40%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Corinthians 1.14 xG and Botafogo 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Corinthians attack 0.968 / defence 0.751 | Botafogo attack 1.139 / defence 0.992. League average goals — home 1.187 / away 1.103. Corinthians's defence rating of 0.751 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 Corinthians games / 44 Botafogo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Corinthians 39% | Draw 33% | Botafogo 29%. Fair-value odds: Corinthians 2.56 | Draw 3.03 | Botafogo 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Corinthians at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Corinthians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.08 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. This conflicts with form data: Corinthians 70% | Botafogo 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Corinthians vs Botafogo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Neo Química Arena • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Jun 2024, 01:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Corinthians 39% | Draw 33% | Botafogo 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG Corinthians 1.14 / Botafogo 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Corinthians attack 0.968 / def 0.751 | Botafogo attack 1.139 / def 0.992 | league avg home 1.187 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Corinthians (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Corinthians xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Botafogo xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Corinthians vs Botafogo kick off?
Corinthians vs Botafogo kicked off at 01:00 on Sunday 2 June 2024 at Neo Química Arena.
What was the final score in Corinthians vs Botafogo?
Corinthians 0 - 1 Botafogo.
Where is Corinthians vs Botafogo being played?
The match is being played at Neo Química Arena.
What competition is Corinthians vs Botafogo part of?
Corinthians vs Botafogo is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Corinthians vs Botafogo?
Our statistical model gives Corinthians a 39% chance of winning, Botafogo a 29% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Corinthians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Corinthians vs Botafogo?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Corinthians and Botafogo will score (BTTS).
Will Corinthians vs Botafogo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Botafogo?
Record (4 meetings): Corinthians 3W | Draws 0 | Botafogo 1W.
What form are Corinthians and Botafogo in?
Corinthians (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-W-L-W. Botafogo (all comps): 0W-5D-5L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.90 | L5 D-D-D-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Corinthians's attack at 0.97x the league average against Botafogo's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.14 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Botafogo's attack versus Corinthians's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.2%), 1-0 (12.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Corinthians Win
39%
2.58
33%
3.06
29%
3.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Corinthians xG
Total xG
2.08
0.94
Botafogo xG
2.58
39%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
3.50
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
39%
2.57
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
15%
6.64
9%
10.95
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 11.7 | 5.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.4 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 7.6 | 3.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Corinthians vs Botafogo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Corinthians and Botafogo expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Corinthians and 0.94 for Botafogo, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Corinthians vs Botafogo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Corinthians's recent record stands at 30W 25D 21L from 76 games, a 1.51 PPG return, with W-L-W-L-W in the last five.
Botafogo, meanwhile, have gone 33W 18D 25L across 76 games — 1.54 PPG, with D-D-D-D-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Corinthians on 1.51 PPG, Botafogo on 1.54. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Corinthians have managed 18W 14D 6L from 38 games — 1.79 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Botafogo's away record stands at 16W 10D 12L across 38 trips, a 1.53 PPG haul.
The Goals Picture
Corinthians are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.11 conceded per game recently; Botafogo are on 1.30 scored and 1.05 conceded.
Last 76 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Corinthians
Current Season
Botafogo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Corinthians and Botafogo in coming into this match?
Corinthians have gone 30W 25D 21L in their last 76 games (1.51 PPG), while Botafogo have gone 33W 18D 25L in their last 76 (1.54 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Corinthians at home or Botafogo away?
Corinthians's home record (1.79 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Corinthians at home: 1.79 PPG; Botafogo away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Corinthians or Botafogo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Corinthians have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Botafogo in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Corinthians and Botafogo runs to 9 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to April 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 17 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 May 2023, when Botafogo won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Corinthians's record when hosting Botafogo specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Corinthians
2
Draws
4
Botafogo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Corinthians and Botafogo?
From 9 meetings on record, Corinthians have won 3, Botafogo have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Corinthians and Botafogo last play each other?
They last met on 17 May 2026, when Botafogo 3-1 Corinthians.
Who has won more matches between Corinthians and Botafogo?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Corinthians see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Corinthians 53%, Botafogo 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 29% (Corinthians) and 42% (Botafogo).
On the defensive side: Corinthians keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Botafogo in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Corinthians home games / Botafogo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Corinthians play Botafogo?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Corinthians's recent matches and 45% of Botafogo's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Corinthians vs Botafogo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of Corinthians's recent games and 42% of Botafogo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Corinthians and Botafogo tend to score early?
Corinthians have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Botafogo in 63% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Botafogo defy the odds to beat Corinthians 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Corinthians 0-1 at Neo Química Arena, Regular Season - 7, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Corinthians 1.14 xG and Botafogo 0.94 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Corinthians fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Corinthians attack 0.97 / defence 0.75 against Botafogo attack 1.14 / defence 0.99, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Corinthians 39% | Draw 33% | Botafogo 29%, with Corinthians to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual Botafogo win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Corinthians 37%, Botafogo 40%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Corinthians's trading profile (76 games, 38 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.
Botafogo's trading profile (76 games, 38 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Corinthians 1.51 PPG, Botafogo 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Botafogo win broke the near-deadlock. Corinthians (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.32 scoring average — below par going forward. Botafogo (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.