Ceara 2-2 Flamengo – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Flamengo at 38%, yet other data sources diverge — this Ceara vs Flamengo fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Ceara and Flamengo meet at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo in Serie A, Regular Season - 6. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 14 May 2022 at 20:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Ceara have collected 1.70 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 2D 3L. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Ceara have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
Flamengo (all games): 5W 3D 2L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.80 points per game. Last five: D W D L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Flamengo have posted 3W 5D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.40 PPG. They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.80 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Ceara lead 0W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Nov 2021, ended 1–2 with Flamengo winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Ceara half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 40% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Flamengo half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Ceara 53% versus Flamengo 47%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Ceara 40% | Flamengo 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Ceara 1.08 xG and Flamengo 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Ceara attack 0.825 / defence 1.155 | Flamengo attack 1.086 / defence 0.980. League average goals — home 1.338 / away 0.928. Data: 42 Ceara games / 43 Flamengo games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Ceara 34% | Draw 29% | Flamengo 38%. Fair-value odds: Ceara 2.94 | Draw 3.45 | Flamengo 2.63. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Flamengo are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 29% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Flamengo if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.25 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 39% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 45% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Ceara 40% | Flamengo 70%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Ceara vs Flamengo | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo • Kick-off: Saturday 14 May 2022, 20:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Ceara 34% | Draw 29% | Flamengo 38% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Ceara 1.08 / Flamengo 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Ceara attack 0.825 / def 1.155 | Flamengo attack 1.086 / def 0.980 | league avg home 1.338 / away 0.928 • Poisson stance: Flamengo (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Ceara xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Flamengo xG
45%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Ceara vs Flamengo kick off?
Ceara vs Flamengo kicked off at 20:30 on Saturday 14 May 2022 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What was the final score in Ceara vs Flamengo?
Ceara 2 - 2 Flamengo.
Where is Ceara vs Flamengo being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo.
What competition is Ceara vs Flamengo part of?
Ceara vs Flamengo is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Ceara vs Flamengo?
Our statistical model gives Ceara a 34% chance of winning, Flamengo a 38% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Flamengo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Ceara vs Flamengo?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Ceara and Flamengo will score (BTTS).
Will Ceara vs Flamengo have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Flamengo?
Record (2 meetings): Ceara 0W | Draws 1 | Flamengo 1W.
What form are Ceara and Flamengo in?
Ceara (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Flamengo (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-W-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Ceara's attacking strength (0.82x league average) is weighed against Flamengo's defensive record (0.98x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. Flip it around — Flamengo's attack (1.09x) against Ceara's defence (1.16x) — and the away total comes out at 1.17.
These ratings are built from 42/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 0-1 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Flamengo Win
34%
2.98
29%
3.48
38%
2.65
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.3%
Away win
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Ceara xG
Total xG
2.25
1.17
Flamengo xG
2.98
34%
Home win
3.48
29%
Draw
2.65
38%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.20
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
31%
3.21
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
10%
9.55
13%
7.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 12.3 | 7.2 | 2.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 13.3 | 7.8 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 6.2 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.6 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Ceara vs Flamengo?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Ceara and Flamengo expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Ceara and 1.17 for Flamengo, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Ceara vs Flamengo?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 38 outings, Ceara have picked up 1.32 PPG on a 11W 17D 10L record — D-W-L-D-L across the most recent five.
Flamengo's form line: 21W 8D 9L from 38 games, 1.87 PPG, last five D-W-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Flamengo are the form team by 0.55 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Ceara.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Ceara have posted 1.95 PPG from 19 outings (10W 7D 2L). That's noticeably better than their 1.32 PPG overall — Ceara are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Flamengo have gone 8W 7D 4L from 19 away games — 1.63 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Ceara are averaging 1.03 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Flamengo are on 1.82 scored and 0.95 conceded. Flamengo's attacking output running into Ceara's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Flamengo in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Ceara
Current Season
Flamengo
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Ceara and Flamengo in coming into this match?
Ceara have gone 11W 17D 10L in their last 38 games (1.32 PPG), while Flamengo have gone 21W 8D 9L in their last 38 (1.87 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Ceara at home or Flamengo away?
Ceara's home record (1.95 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Ceara at home: 1.95 PPG; Flamengo away: 1.63 PPG.
Have Ceara or Flamengo been keeping clean sheets recently?
Ceara have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Flamengo in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to August 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 4 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Ceara have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Flamengo — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Ceara
4
Draws
2
Flamengo
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Ceara and Flamengo?
From 6 meetings on record, Ceara have won 0, Flamengo have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Ceara and Flamengo last play each other?
They last met on 4 December 2025, when Flamengo 1-0 Ceara.
Who has won more matches between Ceara and Flamengo?
Flamengo have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Ceara see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Flamengo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Ceara 53%, Flamengo 63% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 42% (Ceara) and 63% (Flamengo).
On the defensive side: Ceara keep a clean sheet in 47% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Ceara home games / Flamengo away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Ceara play Flamengo?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 53% of Ceara's games and 63% of Flamengo's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Ceara vs Flamengo usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Ceara's recent games and 63% of Flamengo's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Ceara and Flamengo tend to score early?
Ceara have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Flamengo in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Ceara and Flamengo share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ceara and Flamengo finished level at 2-2 at Estádio Governador Plácido Aderaldo Castelo, Regular Season - 6, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Ceara 1.08 xG and Flamengo 1.17 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Ceara beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Flamengo outscored their 1.17 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Ceara attack 0.82 / defence 1.16 against Flamengo attack 1.09 / defence 0.98, drawn from 42/43 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Ceara 34% | Draw 29% | Flamengo 38%, with Flamengo to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. Over 3.5 was 19% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Ceara 40%, Flamengo 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Ceara's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Flamengo's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 37% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Flamengo arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.32. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Ceara (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.74 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Flamengo (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.11 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.