Botafogo 1-1 Vitoria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Botafogo at 54%, yet other data sources diverge — this Botafogo vs Vitoria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Botafogo and Vitoria meet at Estádio Nilton Santos in Serie A, Regular Season - 35. This fixture gets under way on Saturday 23 November 2024 at 22:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Botafogo have collected 2.20 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 4D 0L. Last five: D W W D D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.20 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
At home at Estádio Nilton Santos, Botafogo have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Nilton Santos. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Vitoria (all games): 6W 1D 3L across 10 Serie A outings this term — 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
When travelling in Serie A this season, Vitoria have posted 4W 1D 5L from 10 away outings — 1.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.30 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 2.20 vs 1.90 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Botafogo lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Historically, goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game from 1 meetings. The Under 2.5 has a clear base rate from the H2H record alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Jul 2024, ended 1–0 with Botafogo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading
Botafogo half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Vitoria half-time and goal-timing data (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 47% versus Vitoria 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Botafogo 44% | Vitoria 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.51 xG and Vitoria 0.82 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 1.051 / defence 0.773 | Vitoria attack 1.072 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.329 / away 0.985. Botafogo's defence rating of 0.773 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 72 Botafogo games / 34 Vitoria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 54% | Draw 26% | Vitoria 20%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 1.85 | Draw 3.85 | Vitoria 5.00. Botafogo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Botafogo at 54% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Botafogo if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.33 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Botafogo 30% | Vitoria 50% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Vitoria | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 35 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Saturday 23 Nov 2024, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 54% | Draw 26% | Vitoria 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 43% | xG Botafogo 1.51 / Vitoria 0.82 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 1.051 / def 0.773 | Vitoria attack 1.072 / def 1.083 | league avg home 1.329 / away 0.985 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (54%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.51
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
0.82
Vitoria xG
43%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Vitoria kick off?
Botafogo vs Vitoria kicked off at 22:30 on Saturday 23 November 2024 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Vitoria?
Botafogo 1 - 1 Vitoria.
Where is Botafogo vs Vitoria being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Vitoria part of?
Botafogo vs Vitoria is a Regular Season - 35 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Vitoria?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 54% chance of winning, Vitoria a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Vitoria?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Botafogo and Vitoria will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Vitoria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Vitoria?
Record (1 meetings): Botafogo 1W | Draws 0 | Vitoria 0W.
What form are Botafogo and Vitoria in?
Botafogo (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.20 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. Vitoria (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
What do the betting odds say about Botafogo vs Vitoria?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Botafogo's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Vitoria's defensive record (1.08x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.51. Flip it around — Vitoria's attack (1.07x) against Botafogo's defence (0.77x) — and the away total comes out at 0.82.
These ratings are built from 72/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 1-0 (13.2%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
54%
1.86
26%
3.84
20%
4.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
2 – 0
11.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.51
Botafogo xG
Total xG
2.33
0.82
Vitoria xG
1.86
54%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
4.94
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.30
57%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
44%
2.26
22%
4.54
Win to Nil
24%
4.21
4%
22.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 8.0 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.7 | 12.0 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.1 | 9.1 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.6 | 4.6 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.1 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Vitoria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Vitoria expected to score?
The model projects 1.51 expected goals for Botafogo and 0.82 for Vitoria, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Vitoria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Botafogo's recent record stands at 20W 9D 5L from 34 games, a 2.03 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-D in the last five.
Vitoria, meanwhile, have gone 12W 5D 17L across 34 games — 1.21 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Botafogo by 0.82 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Vitoria heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Botafogo have managed 11W 4D 2L from 17 games — 2.18 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Vitoria's away record stands at 5W 3D 9L across 17 trips, a 1.06 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Botafogo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Botafogo are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 0.76 conceded per game recently; Vitoria are on 1.15 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Current Season
Vitoria
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Vitoria in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 20W 9D 5L in their last 34 games (2.03 PPG), while Vitoria have gone 12W 5D 17L in their last 34 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Vitoria away?
Botafogo's home record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 2.18 PPG; Vitoria away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Vitoria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Vitoria in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 5 times that we have on record, stretching back to July 2024 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 23 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
The last 4 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Botafogo have gone 0W 3D 0L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Vitoria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
1
Botafogo
4
Draws
0
Vitoria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Vitoria?
From 5 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 1, Vitoria have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Vitoria last play each other?
They last met on 23 July 2026, when Botafogo 0-0 Vitoria.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Vitoria?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Botafogo see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 35% of the time.
Vitoria see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 41%, Vitoria 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Botafogo) and 53% (Vitoria).
On the defensive side: Botafogo keep a clean sheet in 53% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Vitoria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Vitoria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Botafogo's recent matches and 59% of Vitoria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Botafogo vs Vitoria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Botafogo's recent games and 53% of Vitoria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Botafogo and Vitoria share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo and Vitoria finished level at 1-1 at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 35, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.51 xG and Vitoria 0.82 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.05 / defence 0.77 against Vitoria attack 1.07 / defence 1.08, drawn from 72/34 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 54% | Draw 26% | Vitoria 20%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 44%, Vitoria 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (34 games, 17 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Vitoria's trading profile (34 games, 17 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 2.03 PPG against 1.21. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.