Botafogo 3-2 Mirassol – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Botafogo at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Botafogo vs Mirassol fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Mirassol make the trip to Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos to face Botafogo in Serie A, Regular Season - 9. The match kicks off on Wednesday 1 April 2026 at 22:30 UTC.
Current Form
Botafogo's overall Serie A record this term: 5W 5D 0L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W W D D W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Botafogo at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.50 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Mirassol have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D W L W D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Mirassol's away record: 4W 2D 4L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.40 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.00 PPG for Botafogo against 1.80 for Mirassol. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 2 meetings: Botafogo 0W, Mirassol 0W, 2D.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 2 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 1 Nov 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Botafogo half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
Mirassol half-time and goal-timing data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 71% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 37% versus Mirassol 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Botafogo 42% | Mirassol 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.50 xG and Mirassol 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 1.152 / defence 1.182 | Mirassol attack 0.878 / defence 0.876. League average goals — home 1.488 / away 1.037. Data: 45 Botafogo games / 45 Mirassol games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 47% | Draw 26% | Mirassol 27%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 2.13 | Draw 3.85 | Mirassol 3.70. Botafogo hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Botafogo are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Botafogo if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.58 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 48% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though form averaging only 3.1 goals per game points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Botafogo 70% | Mirassol 30%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Mirassol | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Wednesday 1 Apr 2026, 22:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 47% | Draw 26% | Mirassol 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Botafogo 1.50 / Mirassol 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 1.152 / def 1.182 | Mirassol attack 0.878 / def 0.876 | league avg home 1.488 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.50
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Mirassol xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Mirassol kick off?
Botafogo vs Mirassol kicked off at 22:30 on Wednesday 1 April 2026 at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Mirassol?
Botafogo 3 - 2 Mirassol.
Where is Botafogo vs Mirassol being played?
The match is being played at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Mirassol part of?
Botafogo vs Mirassol is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Mirassol?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 47% chance of winning, Mirassol a 27% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Mirassol?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Botafogo and Mirassol will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Mirassol have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Mirassol?
Record (2 meetings): Botafogo 0W | Draws 2 | Mirassol 0W.
What form are Botafogo and Mirassol in?
Botafogo (all comps): 5W-5D-0L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-D-W. Mirassol (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Botafogo's attack at 1.15x the league average against Mirassol's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.50 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Mirassol's attack (0.88x) against Botafogo's defence (1.18x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 45/45 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
47%
2.12
26%
3.88
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.50
Botafogo xG
Total xG
2.58
1.08
Mirassol xG
2.12
47%
Home win
3.88
26%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
34%
2.93
22%
4.50
Win to Nil
16%
6.23
6%
16.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 8.2 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.3 | 6.6 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.2 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Mirassol?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Mirassol expected to score?
The model projects 1.50 expected goals for Botafogo and 1.08 for Mirassol, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Mirassol?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Botafogo come into this having played 38 games, going 17W 12D 9L for 1.66 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-D-W.
On the other side, Mirassol sit at 1.76 PPG from 38 outings (18W 13D 7L), a run that reads D-W-L-W-D across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.66 PPG for Botafogo against 1.76 for Mirassol. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
Botafogo's home form reads 11W 5D 3L across 19 games on their own ground, a 2.00 PPG return.
Away from home, Mirassol have taken 1.26 points per game from 19 outings (6W 6D 7L). That's a step down from their 1.76 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Mirassol's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Botafogo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Botafogo are averaging 1.53 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Mirassol are on 1.66 scored and 1.03 conceded.
Defensively: Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Current Season
Mirassol
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Mirassol in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 17W 12D 9L in their last 38 games (1.66 PPG), while Mirassol have gone 18W 13D 7L in their last 38 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Mirassol away?
Botafogo's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 2.00 PPG; Mirassol away: 1.26 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Mirassol been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Mirassol in 29%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 3 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2025 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 1 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Botafogo have gone 1W 1D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Mirassol — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 3 Meetings
1
Botafogo
2
Draws
0
Mirassol
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Mirassol?
From 3 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 1, Mirassol have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Mirassol last play each other?
They last met on 1 April 2026, when Botafogo 3-2 Mirassol.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Mirassol?
Botafogo have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 58% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Mirassol are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 16% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 53%, Mirassol 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 63% (Botafogo) and 32% (Mirassol).
On the defensive side: Botafogo keep a clean sheet in 32% of their matches; Mirassol in 26%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Mirassol away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Mirassol?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of Botafogo's recent matches and 47% of Mirassol's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Botafogo vs Mirassol usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 63% of Botafogo's recent games and 32% of Mirassol's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Botafogo and Mirassol tend to score early?
Botafogo have had a goal before half-time in 90% of their recent matches, Mirassol in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Botafogo edge out Mirassol 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Botafogo beat Mirassol 3-2 at Estadio Olimpico Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 9, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.50 xG and Mirassol 1.08 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Botafogo beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Mirassol outscored their 1.08 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.15 / defence 1.18 against Mirassol attack 0.88 / defence 0.88, drawn from 45/45 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 47% | Draw 26% | Mirassol 27%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 47%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 42%, Mirassol 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Mirassol's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Botafogo 1.66 PPG, Mirassol 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Botafogo win broke the near-deadlock. Botafogo (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.05 average — above their attacking norm. Mirassol (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.11 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.16 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.