Botafogo 0-0 Cuiaba – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Botafogo at 60% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Botafogo vs Cuiaba encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Botafogo host Cuiaba at Estádio Nilton Santos in Serie A, Regular Season - 33. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 9 November 2024 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Botafogo have gone 7W 3D 0L from 10 outings — a 2.40 PPG return. Last five: D W D W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.30 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.30 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Botafogo at Estádio Nilton Santos this season: 7W 2D 1L from 10 home games — 2.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Estádio Nilton Santos. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Cuiaba stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Cuiaba's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
On current form, Botafogo have the edge — a 1.40 PPG advantage (2.40 vs 1.00) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Botafogo's 30% rate and Cuiaba's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 5 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Botafogo, 3 for Cuiaba and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.8 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 3 Jul 2024, ended 2–1 with Botafogo winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.8 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Botafogo trading profile (70 games, 35 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Cuiaba trading profile (70 games, 35 at away): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 34% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Botafogo 49% versus Cuiaba 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Botafogo 44% | Cuiaba 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Botafogo 1.47 xG and Cuiaba 0.55 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Botafogo attack 1.137 / defence 0.802 | Cuiaba attack 0.686 / defence 0.952. League average goals — home 1.362 / away 1.003. Data: 70 Botafogo games / 70 Cuiaba games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Botafogo 60% | Draw 26% | Cuiaba 14%. Fair-value odds: Botafogo 1.67 | Draw 3.85 | Cuiaba 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Botafogo (60%) — a 46pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Cuiaba's lower xG of 0.55 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Botafogo at 60% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.03 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 33% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Botafogo 30% | Cuiaba 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Botafogo vs Cuiaba | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Estádio Nilton Santos • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Botafogo 60% | Draw 26% | Cuiaba 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 33% | xG Botafogo 1.47 / Cuiaba 0.55 • Poisson strength factors: Botafogo attack 1.137 / def 0.802 | Cuiaba attack 0.686 / def 0.952 | league avg home 1.362 / away 1.003 • Poisson stance: Botafogo (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Botafogo xG
Expected Goals
0.55
Cuiaba xG
33%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Botafogo vs Cuiaba kick off?
Botafogo vs Cuiaba kicked off at 19:30 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What was the final score in Botafogo vs Cuiaba?
Botafogo 0 - 0 Cuiaba.
Where is Botafogo vs Cuiaba being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Nilton Santos.
What competition is Botafogo vs Cuiaba part of?
Botafogo vs Cuiaba is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Botafogo vs Cuiaba?
Our statistical model gives Botafogo a 60% chance of winning, Cuiaba a 14% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Botafogo the favourite.
Will both teams score in Botafogo vs Cuiaba?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Botafogo and Cuiaba will score (BTTS).
Will Botafogo vs Cuiaba have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Cuiaba?
Record (5 meetings): Botafogo 2W | Draws 0 | Cuiaba 3W.
What form are Botafogo and Cuiaba in?
Botafogo (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.30 | L5 D-W-D-W-W. Cuiaba (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates Botafogo's attack at 1.14x the league average against Cuiaba's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Cuiaba's attack versus Botafogo's defence, projects 0.55 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 70/70 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 18.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.6%), 2-0 (14.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Botafogo Win
60%
1.67
26%
3.80
14%
7.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.3%
Home win
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Botafogo xG
Total xG
2.03
0.55
Cuiaba xG
1.67
60%
Home win
3.80
26%
Draw
7.25
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.06
67%
BTTS No
1.49
Clean Sheet
58%
1.74
23%
4.37
Win to Nil
34%
2.90
3%
31.64
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 7.3 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 19.4 | 10.7 | 3.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.3 | 7.9 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Botafogo vs Cuiaba?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are Botafogo and Cuiaba expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Botafogo and 0.55 for Cuiaba, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Botafogo vs Cuiaba?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Botafogo's recent record stands at 38W 17D 15L from 70 games, a 1.87 PPG return, with D-W-D-W-W in the last five.
Cuiaba, meanwhile, have gone 20W 19D 31L across 70 games — 1.13 PPG, with W-D-L-L-D in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Botafogo by 0.74 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cuiaba heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Botafogo have managed 22W 7D 6L from 35 games — 2.09 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cuiaba's away record stands at 11W 8D 16L across 35 trips, a 1.17 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Botafogo come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Botafogo are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Cuiaba are on 0.93 scored and 1.14 conceded.
Defensively: Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 70 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Botafogo
Current Season
Cuiaba
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Botafogo and Cuiaba in coming into this match?
Botafogo have gone 38W 17D 15L in their last 70 games (1.87 PPG), while Cuiaba have gone 20W 19D 31L in their last 70 (1.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Botafogo at home or Cuiaba away?
Botafogo's home record (2.09 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Botafogo at home: 2.09 PPG; Cuiaba away: 1.17 PPG.
Have Botafogo or Cuiaba been keeping clean sheets recently?
Botafogo have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Cuiaba in 31%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Botafogo and Cuiaba runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 November 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Botafogo's record when hosting Cuiaba specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
Botafogo
1
Draws
3
Cuiaba
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Botafogo and Cuiaba?
From 6 meetings on record, Botafogo have won 2, Cuiaba have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Botafogo and Cuiaba last play each other?
They last met on 9 November 2024, when Botafogo 0-0 Cuiaba.
Who has won more matches between Botafogo and Cuiaba?
Cuiaba have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Botafogo are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Cuiaba are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Botafogo 46%, Cuiaba 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Botafogo) and 34% (Cuiaba).
On the defensive side: Botafogo keep a clean sheet in 49% of their matches; Cuiaba in 31%; Cuiaba in 49%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Botafogo home games / Cuiaba away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Botafogo play Cuiaba?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of Botafogo's recent matches and 31% of Cuiaba's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Botafogo vs Cuiaba usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Botafogo's recent games and 34% of Cuiaba's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Botafogo and Cuiaba tend to score early?
Botafogo have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Cuiaba in 66% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Botafogo's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Estádio Nilton Santos, Regular Season - 33, as Botafogo and Cuiaba drew 0-0 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Botafogo 1.47 xG and Cuiaba 0.55 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Botafogo fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Botafogo attack 1.14 / defence 0.80 against Cuiaba attack 0.69 / defence 0.95, drawn from 70/70 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Botafogo 60% | Draw 26% | Cuiaba 14%, with Botafogo to win its most likely call at 60%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Botafogo 44%, Cuiaba 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Botafogo's trading profile (70 games, 35 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one.
Cuiaba's trading profile (70 games, 35 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Botafogo arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Botafogo (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Cuiaba (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.