Bahia 0-1 Sport Recife – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sport Recife at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bahia vs Sport Recife fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 14 as Bahia welcome Sport Recife to Estádio Governador Roberto Santos. Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 August 2021 at 22:15 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Bahia have gone 4W 1D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W L L L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bahia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bahia have posted 3W 1D 3L at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos — 1.43 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 7 games (43%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 29% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sport Recife stand at 2W 4D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D L W D. Their scoring rate of 0.50 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Sport Recife, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Sport Recife away from home this season: 1W 3D 3L from 7 away games — 0.86 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bahia at 1.30 PPG versus Sport Recife's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Profile
Bahia in-play tendencies (13 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Sport Recife in-play tendencies (13 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 29% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they fail to score in 54% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Bahia 38% | Sport Recife 31%). The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 62% | Sport Recife 23%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.01 xG and Sport Recife 1.15 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 0.996 / defence 1.490 | Sport Recife attack 0.730 / defence 1.139. League average goals — home 0.894 / away 1.055. Data: 13 Bahia games / 13 Sport Recife games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 32% | Draw 29% | Sport Recife 39%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 3.12 | Draw 3.45 | Sport Recife 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS probability 44% | Total xG 2.16. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.16 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 44% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Sport Recife as the most likely outcome at 39% — marginal model lean. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Sport Recife offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.16 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 37% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 44% on No. Form rates corroborate: Bahia 29% | Sport Recife 43% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Sport Recife | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Estádio Governador Roberto Santos • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Aug 2021, 22:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 32% | Draw 29% | Sport Recife 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% | BTTS 44% | xG Bahia 1.01 / Sport Recife 1.15 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 0.996 / def 1.490 | Sport Recife attack 0.730 / def 1.139 | league avg home 0.894 / away 1.055 • Poisson stance: Sport Recife (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.01
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
1.15
Sport Recife xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Sport Recife kick off?
Bahia vs Sport Recife kicked off at 22:15 on Sunday 1 August 2021 at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Sport Recife?
Bahia 0 - 1 Sport Recife.
Where is Bahia vs Sport Recife being played?
The match is being played at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos.
What competition is Bahia vs Sport Recife part of?
Bahia vs Sport Recife is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Sport Recife?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 32% chance of winning, Sport Recife a 39% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Sport Recife the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Sport Recife?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Bahia and Sport Recife will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Sport Recife have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Sport Recife?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bahia and Sport Recife in?
Bahia (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-W-L-L-L. Sport Recife (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 L-D-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Bahia's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Sport Recife's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.01. The same calculation in reverse, Sport Recife's attack versus Bahia's defence, projects 1.15 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 0-1 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sport Recife Win
32%
3.13
29%
3.41
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
13.2%
Away win
1 – 0
11.7%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.01
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.16
1.15
Sport Recife xG
3.13
32%
Home win
3.41
29%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.30
56%
BTTS No
1.77
Clean Sheet
32%
3.15
36%
2.76
Win to Nil
10%
9.87
14%
7.13
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 13.2 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.9 | 6.8 | 3.9 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Sport Recife?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Bahia and Sport Recife expected to score?
The model projects 1.01 expected goals for Bahia and 1.15 for Sport Recife, a combined total of 2.16.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Sport Recife?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Bahia come into this having played 13 games, going 5W 2D 6L for 1.31 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-L-L. The sample for Bahia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Sport Recife sit at 0.85 PPG from 13 outings (2W 5D 6L), a run that reads L-D-L-W-D across their last five. The sample for Sport Recife is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Bahia carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.46 PPG clear of Sport Recife — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Bahia's home form reads 3W 1D 3L across 7 games on their own ground, a 1.43 PPG return.
Away from home, Sport Recife have taken 0.86 points per game from 7 outings (1W 3D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bahia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bahia are averaging 1.38 goals scored and 1.69 conceded per game recently; Sport Recife are on 0.54 scored and 0.85 conceded.
Defensively: Sport Recife in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 13 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Blended
Sport Recife
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Sport Recife in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 5W 2D 6L in their last 13 games (1.31 PPG), while Sport Recife have gone 2W 5D 6L in their last 13 (0.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Sport Recife away?
Bahia's home record (1.43 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.43 PPG; Sport Recife away: 0.86 PPG.
Have Bahia or Sport Recife been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 31% of their recent games, Sport Recife in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bahia and Sport Recife runs to 4 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to August 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 3 December 2025, roughly 8 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Bahia's record when hosting Sport Recife specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Bahia
1
Draws
2
Sport Recife
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Sport Recife?
From 4 meetings on record, Bahia have won 1, Sport Recife have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Sport Recife last play each other?
They last met on 3 December 2025, when Bahia 2-0 Sport Recife.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Sport Recife?
Sport Recife have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bahia see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
Sport Recife tend to start slowly — only 29% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 29%, Sport Recife 43% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 57% (Bahia) and 29% (Sport Recife).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Bahia have failed to score in 43% of games; Sport Recife in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Sport Recife away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Sport Recife?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 29% of Bahia's recent matches and 43% of Sport Recife's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Sport Recife usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 57% of Bahia's recent games and 29% of Sport Recife's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bahia and Sport Recife tend to score early?
Bahia have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Sport Recife in 29% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Sport Recife edge out Bahia 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sport Recife beat Bahia 0-1 at Estádio Governador Roberto Santos, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.01 xG and Sport Recife 1.15 xG, a combined 2.16. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Bahia fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.00 / defence 1.49 against Sport Recife attack 0.73 / defence 1.14, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 32% | Draw 29% | Sport Recife 39%, with Sport Recife to win its most likely call at 39%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 62%, Sport Recife 23%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 35%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (13 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Sport Recife's trading profile (13 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Bahia arrived the stronger side — 1.31 PPG against 0.85. Form was overturned, with Sport Recife winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bahia (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward. Sport Recife (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.