Bahia 1-0 Palmeiras – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Palmeiras at 54% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bahia vs Palmeiras encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Serie A encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Palmeiras travel to Arena Fonte Nova to take on Bahia. The game is scheduled for Thursday 22 June 2023, 01:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bahia stand at 3W 2D 5L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W L L W L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Bahia haven't played a Serie A game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Arena Fonte Nova, Bahia have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Arena Fonte Nova. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Bahia are significantly better at Arena Fonte Nova than their overall form suggests.
Across all Serie A games this season, Palmeiras have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W D W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Palmeiras's away record: 5W 4D 1L from 10 road trips in Serie A this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form points away from home here. Palmeiras's 2.10 PPG return is 1.00 points per game ahead of Bahia's 1.10 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Bahia, 1 for Palmeiras and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Oct 2021, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Bahia in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 47% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
Palmeiras in-play and half-time data (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bahia 40% versus Palmeiras 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bahia 45% | Palmeiras 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bahia 1.00 xG and Palmeiras 1.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bahia attack 1.046 / defence 1.310 | Palmeiras attack 1.272 / defence 0.701. League average goals — home 1.371 / away 1.103. Palmeiras's defence strength of 0.701 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Palmeiras have an above-average attack strength of 1.272 — the away xG of 1.84 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 10 Bahia games / 48 Palmeiras games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bahia 18% | Draw 28% | Palmeiras 54%. Fair-value odds: Bahia 5.56 | Draw 3.57 | Palmeiras 1.85. Palmeiras hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Palmeiras at 54% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Palmeiras offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.84 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 54% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. Form rates corroborate: Bahia 50% | Palmeiras 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bahia vs Palmeiras | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Arena Fonte Nova • Kick-off: Thursday 22 Jun 2023, 01:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bahia 18% | Draw 28% | Palmeiras 54% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 54% | BTTS 56% | xG Bahia 1.00 / Palmeiras 1.84 • Poisson strength factors: Bahia attack 1.046 / def 1.310 | Palmeiras attack 1.272 / def 0.701 | league avg home 1.371 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Palmeiras (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Bahia xG
Expected Goals
1.84
Palmeiras xG
56%
BTTS
80%
Over 1.5
54%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bahia vs Palmeiras kick off?
Bahia vs Palmeiras kicked off at 01:30 on Thursday 22 June 2023 at Arena Fonte Nova.
What was the final score in Bahia vs Palmeiras?
Bahia 1 - 0 Palmeiras.
Where is Bahia vs Palmeiras being played?
The match is being played at Arena Fonte Nova.
What competition is Bahia vs Palmeiras part of?
Bahia vs Palmeiras is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Serie A (Brazil).
Who is favourite to win Bahia vs Palmeiras?
Our statistical model gives Bahia a 18% chance of winning, Palmeiras a 54% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Palmeiras the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bahia vs Palmeiras?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both Bahia and Palmeiras will score (BTTS).
Will Bahia vs Palmeiras have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 54%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Palmeiras?
Record (2 meetings): Bahia 0W | Draws 1 | Palmeiras 1W.
What form are Bahia and Palmeiras in?
Bahia (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-L-L-W-L. Palmeiras (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-D-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bahia's attack at 1.05x the league average against Palmeiras's defence at 0.70x — combine the two and it projects 1.00 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Palmeiras's attack versus Bahia's defence, projects 1.84 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Palmeiras Win
18%
5.62
28%
3.58
54%
1.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Bahia xG
Total xG
2.84
1.84
Palmeiras xG
5.62
18%
Home win
3.58
28%
Draw
1.84
54%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
54%
Over 2.5
1.85
46%
Under 2.5
2.17
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.79
44%
BTTS No
2.27
Clean Sheet
16%
6.28
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
3%
35.34
20%
5.04
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.8 | 10.7 | 9.8 | 6.0 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 1 | 5.9 | 10.8 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 2.8 | 1.0 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.4 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 1.4 | 0.5 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bahia vs Palmeiras?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Bahia and Palmeiras expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Bahia and 1.84 for Palmeiras, a combined total of 2.84.
How confident is the prediction model for Bahia vs Palmeiras?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 38 outings, Bahia have picked up 1.13 PPG on a 11W 10D 17L record — W-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. Bahia haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Palmeiras's form line: 23W 12D 3L from 38 games, 2.13 PPG, last five W-W-D-W-L.
Put side by side, Palmeiras are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bahia.
Venue Form
On home soil, Bahia have posted 1.53 PPG from 19 outings (8W 5D 6L). That's noticeably better than their 1.13 PPG overall — Bahia are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Palmeiras have gone 10W 8D 1L from 19 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Palmeiras come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bahia are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.34 conceded per game recently; Palmeiras are on 1.74 scored and 0.71 conceded.
Defensively: Palmeiras in 50% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bahia
Pre-Season
Palmeiras
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bahia and Palmeiras in coming into this match?
Bahia have gone 11W 10D 17L in their last 38 games (1.13 PPG), while Palmeiras have gone 23W 12D 3L in their last 38 (2.13 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bahia at home or Palmeiras away?
Palmeiras's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bahia at home: 1.53 PPG; Palmeiras away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Bahia or Palmeiras been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bahia have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Palmeiras in 50%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
9 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 5 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bahia's record when hosting Palmeiras specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 9 Meetings
3
Bahia
1
Draws
5
Palmeiras
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Palmeiras?
From 9 meetings on record, Bahia have won 3, Palmeiras have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Bahia and Palmeiras last play each other?
They last met on 5 April 2026, when Bahia 1-2 Palmeiras.
Who has won more matches between Bahia and Palmeiras?
Palmeiras have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 9 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bahia see a goal before the break in 47% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Palmeiras see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 26% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bahia 42%, Palmeiras 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (Bahia) and 42% (Palmeiras).
On the defensive side: Bahia keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Palmeiras in 42%; Bahia have failed to score in 32% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bahia home games / Palmeiras away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bahia play Palmeiras?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 42% of Bahia's recent matches and 53% of Palmeiras's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bahia vs Palmeiras usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of Bahia's recent games and 42% of Palmeiras's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Shock result as Bahia defy the odds to beat Palmeiras 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bahia beat Palmeiras 1-0 at Arena Fonte Nova, Regular Season - 11, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bahia 1.00 xG and Palmeiras 1.84 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Palmeiras landed 1.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bahia attack 1.05 / defence 1.31 against Palmeiras attack 1.27 / defence 0.70, drawn from 10/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bahia 18% | Draw 28% | Palmeiras 54%, with Palmeiras to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Bahia win, an outcome the model had rated at just 18% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 80% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bahia 45%, Palmeiras 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bahia's trading profile (38 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Palmeiras's trading profile (38 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Palmeiras arrived the stronger side — 2.13 PPG against 1.13. Form was overturned, with Bahia winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bahia (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.16 average — tighter than their form line. Palmeiras (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.42 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.